The smoke hasn’t turned white yet, but the air in Rome is thick with something else: pure, unadulterated speculation. Honestly, trying to figure out who's gonna be the next pope is basically the world's oldest game of political chess, played with higher stakes and much better outfits.
Following the death of Pope Francis in April 2025, the Catholic Church has found itself at a massive crossroads. Francis didn't just lead; he shook the table. He spent over a decade pulling the Church’s focus toward the "peripheries"—places like South Sudan, Mongolia, and the Amazon—while annoying the living daylights out of the traditionalist wing in the process. Now, the 130-plus cardinals who actually get a vote are sitting in their red silks, wondering if they should keep the Francis momentum going or hit the "undo" button.
The Frontrunners: Who Actually Has a Shot?
If you’ve been following the betting markets (yes, people actually bet on this like it's the Super Bowl), a few names keep popping up. It's not just about who's the holiest; it's about who can manage a global organization that’s currently split right down the middle.
Pietro Parolin is the name you’ll hear most. He’s the Vatican’s Secretary of State, basically the Prime Minister. He’s Italian, which helps with the "local" crowd, and he’s a diplomat to his core. If the cardinals want someone who won’t cause a scandal and knows how the bureaucracy works, Parolin is the guy. But some think he’s too much of an insider. He’s the "safe" choice, and sometimes the Holy Spirit—or the guys in the Sistine Chapel—prefers a wild card.
Then there’s Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. People call him the "Asian Francis." He’s got that same infectious smile and a heart for the poor, but he’s also spent time in the Vatican's inner machinery. If he wins, he’d be the first Filipino pope, which would be a massive signal to the booming Catholic populations in Asia.
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Then we have the "continuity" candidate, Matteo Zuppi.
He’s the Archbishop of Bologna and has been Francis's go-to guy for peace missions, including high-stakes trips to Moscow and Kyiv. He’s got this "street priest" vibe but carries a lot of weight in the hierarchy.
The Breakdown of Likely Candidates:
- The Diplomat: Pietro Parolin (Italy) – Professional, experienced, cautious.
- The Reformer: Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – Charismatic, missionary-focused, popular in the Global South.
- The Peace-Maker: Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – Socially active, close to Francis, very relatable.
- The Traditionalist Hope: Péter Erdő (Hungary) – A canon lawyer who knows the rules and appeals to those who think Francis went too far.
- The African Contender: Peter Turkson (Ghana) – Long-time Vatican veteran, expert on climate change and social justice.
Why This Conclave is Different
This isn't your grandfather’s papacy. Francis changed the "electorate." He appointed over 80% of the cardinals who are now deciding the future. On paper, that means the next pope should be someone just like him.
But history is weird.
Often, cardinals who were appointed by a "liberal" pope end up picking a "conservative" successor because they feel the pendulum has swung too far. It’s a bit like a corporate board of directors deciding they’ve had enough of a "disruptor" CEO and want someone to just keep the lights on and the books balanced.
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Also, for the first time, the majority of voters aren't European. We’re looking at a College of Cardinals where the "Global South"—Africa, Asia, and Latin America—holds the real power. They might care less about Western culture wars and more about things like economic survival, migration, and how to deal with rising secularism.
The "Papabile" Curse
There’s an old saying in Rome: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal."
Basically, if everyone is talking about you as the favorite, you're probably doomed. The minute a name becomes "the one," everyone starts looking for reasons to vote against them. This is why "sleeper" candidates are so dangerous.
Take Pierbattista Pizzaballa. He’s the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. He’s Italian but has spent his life in the Middle East. He speaks Hebrew, Arabic, and Italian. He’s been a voice of reason in the middle of a war zone. If the cardinals get tired of the "Vatican insiders" fighting, they might look to someone like Pizzaballa who has actual mud on his boots.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Process
You've probably seen the movie Conclave. It’s great drama, but the reality is more about whispered conversations in the hallways of the Casa Santa Marta (the hotel where they stay).
- It’s not just a two-way race. There are often four or five "blocs" that have to negotiate.
- Age matters—a lot. If the cardinals are exhausted, they’ll pick an older guy (late 70s) to be a "transitional" pope. If they want a revolution, they’ll pick someone in their early 60s who will be there for 20 years.
- The American Factor. Everyone asks if we'll ever have an American pope. Names like Robert Prevost (who was born in Chicago but works in the Vatican) are mentioned. But honestly? The world is often wary of a "superpower" pope. It brings too much political baggage.
What Actually Happens Next?
The world waits for the smoke. But while we wait, the real work is happening in the "General Congregations"—the meetings before the doors are locked. This is where the cardinals size each other up. They listen to speeches. They figure out who’s smart, who’s holy, and who’s going to make their lives a living hell.
If you’re trying to track who’s gonna be the next pope, don’t just look at the headlines. Look at who the cardinals are talking to. Look at who is being praised by both the progressive and conservative media.
Actionable Insights for Church Watchers:
- Monitor the "Holy Land" angle: If the conclave stalls, look for a "neutral" outsider like Pizzaballa to gain steam.
- Watch the African bloc: If the cardinals from Africa vote as a unit, they can effectively veto any candidate they don't like.
- The "Manager" vs. "Pastor" debate: Determine if the speeches in Rome are focusing on "fixing the Vatican" (Parolin) or "saving souls" (Tagle/Zuppi).
The outcome will define the next two decades of the world's largest religion. Whether it’s a return to tradition or a double-down on reform, the choice will be made behind heavy doors, under a frescoed ceiling, by a group of men who know that the eyes of 1.3 billion people are on them.
Keep an eye on the Vatican’s official news portal and reputable outlets like The Tablet or Crux for the most nuanced updates as the process unfolds.
The first step is identifying which "camp" a candidate belongs to: is he a man of the institution, or a man of the people? Once you know that, you can see where the wind—and the smoke—is blowing.