Look, if you’re just checking the betting apps or scrolling through Twitter, you probably think the trophy is already on a plane to Oklahoma City. It makes sense. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like he's from another planet, and the Thunder are sitting at a ridiculous 35-7 record as of mid-January 2026. The odds reflect that, too, with most books sitting them at +110 to repeat.
But honestly? Betting on who's going to win the NBA championship is never that simple once you get into the weeds of the actual rotations and the weird injury luck we've seen this season.
There’s a massive gap between being the "best team" in January and the team holding the Larry O'Brien in June. We’ve seen the "best" regular-season teams crumble before. Just ask the 2016 Warriors. This year, the landscape is shifting under our feet, with some unexpected heavyweights in the East and a Victor Wembanyama-sized problem looming in Texas.
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The Thunder are the favorites for a reason (and it's not just Shai)
Oklahoma City is the obvious answer. They aren't just winning; they are embarrassing people. They currently have the best record in the league and are on pace for a historic net rating. But what makes them terrifying isn't just Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-level production. It’s the depth.
Chet Holmgren has transformed into a defensive nightmare who actually stretches the floor, and Jalen Williams—who, let’s remember, was banged up during last year's run—is basically a second superstar now. They’ve got so many draft picks they could probably trade for a small country, but they haven't even needed to. They just keep getting better internally.
The concern? Youth. It sounds like a cliché, but the playoffs are a different animal. While they won it all last year, repeating is a brutal mental grind. Teams like the Nuggets are lurking, and they have the "best player in the world" trump card.
Why the Nuggets and Spurs are the biggest threats in the West
If you want to talk about who's going to win the NBA championship, you have to talk about Nikola Jokić. The Nuggets are sitting at +700 right now, which feels like a steal given they pushed OKC to seven games in the second round last year even with half their roster limping.
Denver got smarter this past offseason. They added much-needed depth with Jonas Valančiūnas and Tim Hardaway Jr., and that trade moving Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson gave them some much-needed financial breathing room and a different look on the wing. When Jokić is on the floor, the Nuggets have a floor that almost no other team can touch.
Then there's the San Antonio Spurs. Seriously.
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Nobody expected them to be the 2-seed in the West right now. But Victor Wembanyama has officially entered his "destroyer of worlds" phase. He’s the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, and with De’Aaron Fox running the point, the Spurs' offense is actually coherent for the first time in years. They beat the Thunder on Christmas Day. That wasn't a fluke. If Wemby stays healthy, the Spurs are the ultimate "bracket buster" this postseason.
The Eastern Conference is a total mess (in a good way)
The East is... weird. For years it was "Boston and everyone else," but Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury completely flipped the script. The Celtics are still hanging around the 2-seed at 25-15, but they don't look like the juggernaut of 2024.
Instead, we have the Detroit Pistons. Yeah, you read that right. The Pistons are currently leading the Eastern Conference with a 29-10 record. Cade Cunningham has made a leap into the top 15 players in the league, and the addition of guys like Duncan Robinson has finally given them the spacing they lacked for a decade.
But if I'm picking a team to actually make the Finals from the East, I’m looking at the New York Knicks or the Cleveland Cavaliers.
- The Knicks (+1300): Jalen Brunson is a post-season killer. With Karl-Anthony Towns and the addition of Jordan Clarkson, they have the offensive firepower to survive those 100-98 playoff grinds.
- The Cavaliers (+2200): Their core of Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Allen has won a ton of regular-season games, but they've struggled in the playoffs. Interestingly, they are 23-19 right now, but experts like Peter Dewey note they have a high ceiling if they can fix their perimeter defense, which is currently giving up a league-worst 38.6% from deep.
The "Wildcards" that could ruin everything
You can't ignore the Los Angeles Lakers. They have Luka Dončić now. Pair Luka with Anthony Davis and a (mostly) healthy LeBron James, and you have a team that nobody wants to see in a seven-game series. LeBron is dealing with some sciatica issues, which is a bit of a red flag at his age, but if those three are on the court in May, the +3500 odds look pretty tasty.
Also, keep an eye on the Houston Rockets. They’ve got Kevin Durant now. Durant’s relationship with Ime Udoka has transformed that team from a "scrappy young group" to a "team that can score 130 on you without blinking." They are 23-15 and currently the 6-seed in the West. If KD gets hot in a series, he can still win two games by himself.
What actually matters when the playoffs start
When we look at who's going to win the NBA championship, the stats that usually matter are:
- Defensive Rating: You basically have to be top 10. OKC and Orlando are leading the pack here.
- Health: The Bucks (Lillard injury) and Celtics (Tatum injury) are prime examples of how quickly a "favorite" status evaporates.
- The "Closer": In the last five minutes of a playoff game, who gets the ball? Shai, Jokić, Brunson, and Luka are the names you trust.
The Thunder are the "safe" bet, but the value is elsewhere. Denver has the experience, and the Spurs have the physical anomaly that is Wembanyama.
If you're looking for actionable insights on how to track this, don't just look at the standings. Watch the Net Rating over the next 20 games. Teams that historically win titles usually make their big "push" in February and March. If the Pistons stay at the top of the East through the All-Star break, we have to start taking them seriously as a Finals contender.
Keep a close eye on the trade deadline. A team like the Knicks or Rockets is only one "glue guy" away from being a true threat to OKC's dominance. The West is deep, the East is wide open, and the next four months are going to be absolute chaos.
Next Steps for NBA Fans
- Monitor the injury reports for Jayson Tatum and Kyrie Irving; their return timelines will shift the odds for Boston and Dallas significantly.
- Watch the Spurs vs. Thunder matchups. They play again soon, and it's the best litmus test for whether San Antonio's defense can actually stifle Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
- Check the "Against the Spread" (ATS) trends. The Suns are 15-4 ATS at home, making them a dangerous out if they secure home-court advantage.