Today is Sunday, January 18, 2026. If you're looking for a massive, map-flipping US presidential result, you’re about two years early or late, depending on how you view time. But for millions of people in Portugal, today is the day they decide their head of state.
Honestly, it's a huge deal. The presidency in Portugal isn't just a figurehead role; the president can dissolve parliament and has a massive "veto power" that keeps the government in check.
What's happening in Portugal right now?
The race to succeed the term-limited Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has been, well, intense. Most pundits have been watching if the center-right can maintain their grip or if the Socialist party makes a comeback. Early exit polls usually start trickling in around 8:00 PM local time (Western European Time).
The big question isn't just "who" but "by how much." If no candidate clears $50%$ of the vote today, we are heading for a runoff. That's basically a second round of voting.
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Why today matters for 2026 trends
Even if you aren't in Lisbon, today matters. It's the first major test of European political sentiment in 2026. We’ve seen a lot of "anti-establishment" energy lately. Portugal is a bellwether for whether that energy is fizzling out or gaining steam.
Uganda's massive shift just 24 hours ago
We actually just got news from Kampala. Yesterday, January 17, Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of the Ugandan presidential election. He secured a seventh term. This extends his time in power to over 40 years.
His main rival, Robert Kyagulanyi—most people know him as Bobi Wine—garnered over 2.7 million votes. However, the Electoral Commission chairperson, Simon Byabakama, confirmed Museveni took the lion's share with over 7.9 million ballots.
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Critics and international observers, like the UN Human Rights Office, mentioned the environment was "marked by repression." The government, obviously, says that's nonsense.
Looking at the US: Are there elections today?
In the United States, today is quiet. No major federal or state-wide races are happening on a Sunday. However, the "silent" campaign for the 2026 midterms is screaming in the background.
Current polling from groups like Marist and ratings from the Cook Political Report show a deeply divided country.
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- Senate: Republicans currently hold a 53-45 advantage (with 2 independents caucusing with Democrats).
- House: Democrats are currently slightly favored in early 2026 generic ballot polls, but it's a toss-up.
- Special Elections: Keep an eye on Texas District 18. There’s a special runoff coming up on January 31st to fill the seat left by the late Sylvester Turner.
Who is going to win the election today?
For Portugal, the winner is likely to be a familiar face from the mainstream parties, but the surge of the Chega party (the right-wing populists) is the real story. If they pull more than $15%$, it changes everything for the next parliament.
Basically, if you want to know the winner, you have to watch the "abstention rate." High turnout usually helps the incumbents. Low turnout? That's where the surprises happen.
Actionable insights for following results
If you’re tracking the results tonight, don't just look at the raw numbers. Follow these specific indicators to see who's actually winning:
- The "Lousada" Effect: In Portugal, the municipality of Lousada is often seen as a predictor. Whoever wins there often wins the country.
- Turnout by 4:00 PM: If turnout is higher than $45%$ by mid-afternoon, expect the status quo to hold.
- The "Third Man" Factor: Watch the gap between the second and third-place candidates. If it's narrow, the runoff will be a bloodbath.
Check official government portals or major news outlets like RTP for the most accurate, live-updating data.
Next Steps for You: - Bookmark the official Portuguese Electoral Commission site for live tallies.
- If you're in the US, check your local registrar's office today; many states have changed their primary registration deadlines for the March 2026 contests, and some are as early as next week.
- Keep an eye on the Texas 18th district special election—early voting starts in just a few days.