Who's At War Right Now: What Most People Get Wrong

Who's At War Right Now: What Most People Get Wrong

The world feels loud right now. You turn on the news, and it’s a blur of drones, "red lines," and maps covered in shifting arrows. But if you’re trying to figure out who’s at war right now, the answer isn't just about the two big headlines you see every day.

It’s actually much messier.

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We’re living through a weird, dangerous era where "peace" is often just a ceasefire with a fancy name, and "war" doesn't always involve two countries with flags. Honestly, it’s a lot to keep track of. As of January 2026, the global map is dotted with active frontlines, some cooling off and others reaching a boiling point that nobody seems to be talking about.

The Major Frontlines: Who's At War Right Now?

Let’s start with the big ones because they set the tone for everything else.

Ukraine and Russia: The Long Winter of 2026

In Ukraine, the war has entered its fifth year, and it’s basically a brutal math equation at this point. As of mid-January 2026, Russian forces have been inching forward in the Zaporizhzhia region. They’re currently about 7 kilometers from the main city limits. Think about that—7 kilometers. That’s a short morning jog.

The "Report Card" for this month shows Russia gained about 79 square miles in the last four weeks. It’s slower than it was in late 2025, but it’s constant. What’s really hitting hard this January is the "energy war." Russia launched nearly 300 drones in a single day (January 13) specifically targeting the heating systems in Kyiv and Kharkiv. When it’s -15°C outside, losing power isn't just an inconvenience; it’s a weapon of war.

The Middle East: Ceasefires and Shadow Wars

In Gaza, things are in a strange, fragile middle ground. You’ve probably heard about the "Trump Peace Plan" or the 20-point ceasefire that took effect back in October 2025. Right now, as we sit in January 2026, the U.S. is trying to push into "Phase 2."

This involves a technocratic government—basically a bunch of experts—taking over the day-to-day running of Gaza while Hamas is supposed to disarm. But "ceasefire" is a loose term here. There are still strikes. There’s still massive displacement. And over in Iran, the government is framing its internal protest crackdowns as part of an ongoing "Israel-Iran War," even though the direct missiles stopped months ago.


The "Forgotten" Wars That Are Actually Huge

While everyone watches Ukraine, a few other places are literally falling apart. If you want to know who's at war right now, you have to look at Sudan and Myanmar. These aren't "skirmishes." They are full-scale societal collapses.

Sudan: 1,000 Days of Hell

Sudan just hit a grim milestone: 1,000 days of war since the fighting started in April 2023. It is, by almost every metric, the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet right now.

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The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are locked in a deadlock. Neither side can win, so they’ve turned to "siege warfare." They block food. They block medicine. Over 13 million people have been kicked out of their homes. That’s roughly the population of Pennsylvania just... wandering, looking for safety.

Myanmar: The Election Nobody Believes In

Myanmar is currently in the middle of a three-phase election (January 11 was the second round). The military junta is running it to try and look legitimate, but they’re doing it while fighting a massive civil war against "People’s Defense Forces" and ethnic militias.

Over 60 townships couldn't even vote because the fighting was too intense. It’s a sham, basically. The military claims a 50% turnout, but when you're holding a ballot in one hand and a rifle in the other, "democracy" feels like a stretch.

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The "Cold" Conflicts Getting Hotter

There are a few places where the shooting hasn't fully started yet, but the troops are piling up at the border.

  • Ethiopia vs. Eritrea: This is the one to watch this year. Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has been very vocal about needing a port on the Red Sea. He called it an "existential matter." Eritrea, which owns the coast, is not thrilled. Satellite images from early 2026 show massive troop concentrations on their 600-mile border.
  • The South China Sea: China and the Philippines are still bumping ships. It’s a game of chicken that involves the U.S. Navy, which makes everyone nervous.
  • Venezuela: There’s a "total blockade" situation happening. The U.S. is seizing tankers, and there’s talk of direct intervention to oust the Maduro government.

What Most People Get Wrong About Modern War

People usually think of war as "Country A vs. Country B." But today? It’s more like "Global Shocks."

Experts like Neophytos Loizides from the University of Warwick have noted that we are seeing more simultaneous conflicts now than at any point in decades. Why? Because the "world police" vibe is gone. Regional powers—like Türkiye, Iran, and various militias—are realizing they can pursue their own goals without waiting for permission from the UN or the U.S.

Also, the tech has changed everything. In December 2025, Russia launched over 5,600 drones. That is triple what they did the year before. War isn't just soldiers in trenches anymore; it’s a constant stream of cheap, exploding robots and cyberattacks on power grids.

Keeping Track of the Chaos: Actionable Insights

If you’re trying to stay informed without losing your mind, here’s how to actually read the news in 2026:

  1. Look for the "Report Cards": Groups like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) or the "Russia-Ukraine War Report Card" provide raw data on territorial gains. Ignore the "vibe" of the headlines and look at the square mileage.
  2. Follow the Famine: Conflict and hunger are twins. When you see reports of 40% of a population facing "catastrophic food insecurity" (like in Sudan), that war isn't ending anytime soon. Hunger is a recruitment tool.
  3. Watch the Ports: Many of the next wars (Ethiopia/Eritrea, South China Sea) are about trade routes. If a landlocked country starts talking about "maritime rights," pay attention.
  4. Check the Weather: In Ukraine, the "General Winter" factor is real. The current slowdown in Russian advances is largely due to -15°C temperatures making infantry movements impossible.

To stay truly updated on who's at war right now, monitor the UNRWA Situation Reports for the Middle East and the International Crisis Group’s "CrisisWatch." These sources tend to skip the political spin and focus on where the bullets are actually flying and where the aid is actually blocked.