The Test of the Champion doesn't care about your feelings. It doesn't care if a horse won the Kentucky Derby by a nose or if the Preakness winner looks like the next Secretariat. When the gates fly open for the third leg of the Triple Crown, everything changes. The lineup for the Belmont Stakes is usually a mix of exhausted superstars and "new shooters"—fresh horses who skipped the middle leg of the series just to have a crack at the tiring leaders at the end of a long spring.
Honestly, looking at the probables and the confirmed entries is a bit of a shell game until the draw actually happens. You’ve got trainers like Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox playing poker with the media, hinting at entries one day and backing off the next depending on how a horse "breezed" on a Tuesday morning. It’s chaotic. It's high stakes. And if you aren't paying attention to the specific running styles of the horses in this year's field, you’re basically throwing your money into a woodchipper.
The Belmont is different. It’s long. At 1.5 miles (though occasionally moved to 1.25 miles depending on the venue, like the recent shift to Saratoga during the Belmont Park renovations), the distance is a distance most of these three-year-olds will never see again in their lives. The lineup for the Belmont Stakes isn't just a list of names; it’s a list of pedigrees that can or cannot handle "The Big Sandy."
Why the Lineup for the Belmont Stakes Changes Every Year
Horse racing fans are used to the "Big Three." The Derby winner is the celebrity. The Preakness winner is the challenger. But the Belmont? The Belmont is where the spoilers live.
Take a look at the history of this race. You often see horses that finished fourth or fifth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness entirely, and then showed up in the lineup for the Belmont Stakes with fresh legs. This is the "Pletcher Move." Todd Pletcher has made a career out of targeting this race with horses that need more ground. He knows that while the rest of the world is chasing the Triple Crown dream in Baltimore, he can keep his horses at home, get them used to the deep, grueling surface of the New York tracks, and pounce when the leaders get leg-weary at the top of the stretch.
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But it’s not just about rest. It’s about the "clocker" reports. If you’re following the lineup for the Belmont Stakes, you have to look at the work tabs. A horse that puts in a 1:01 five-furlong work might look okay on paper, but if they were "galloping out" strongly past the finish line, that’s the real tell. Experts like Mike Welsch from the Daily Racing Form spend their mornings with binoculars glued to their faces just to see which horses in the lineup are actually breathing easy after a mile.
The Strategy Behind the Entries
Drafting the lineup for the Belmont Stakes is a chess match for owners. If you have a horse that likes to lead, you’re terrified of another "rabbit" entering the race. A "rabbit" is a horse entered specifically to set a blistering pace, tiring out the favorites so a closer can sweep in at the end.
- The Pace Setters: These are the horses that need the lead. If there are three of them in the lineup, they often "kill" each other. They run too fast, too early, and the Belmont distance eats them alive.
- The Stalkers: This is where the smart money usually goes. These horses sit just behind the leaders, waiting for the 3/4 mile pole to make their move.
- The Closers: In the Belmont, being a deep closer is dangerous. If the pace is slow, the leaders will never come back to you. You need a horse that has a "sustained" run, not just a short burst of speed.
Last year’s lineup showed us exactly how this plays out. When the favorites settled into a comfortable rhythm, the horses coming from the back of the pack simply couldn't make up the ground. The track was playing fast, and the "new shooters" who tried to close from ten lengths back looked like they were running in quicksand.
Understanding the Saratoga Factor
We have to talk about the venue change. With Belmont Park undergoing a massive, multi-million dollar renovation, the race has shifted to Saratoga Race Course. This changes the lineup for the Belmont Stakes fundamentally.
Why? Because Saratoga is a 1 1/8 mile track, whereas Belmont is a massive 1 1/2 mile oval. The turns at Saratoga are tighter. The stretch is shorter. A horse that loved the wide-sweeping turns of Elmont might struggle with the "Graveyard of Champions" in upstate New York. Trainers have to adjust their training regimens. You’ll see more horses in the lineup that have previous experience at Saratoga—maybe they ran there as two-year-olds in the Hopeful Stakes or the Saratoga Special.
Pedigree: The Secret Sauce of the Belmont Field
You can’t just look at the colors or the jockey's win percentage. To understand the lineup for the Belmont Stakes, you have to look at the dad. And the grandpa.
Sire lines like Tapit have dominated the Belmont in recent years. Tapit’s offspring have a weird, almost supernatural ability to keep galloping at the same speed forever. They don't necessarily have a "gears," they just have one very fast, very long gear. When you see a Tapit son or grandson in the lineup, you circle them.
Then you have the European influences. Occasionally, an owner will bring over a horse that’s been racing on turf in England or Ireland. These horses are bred for stamina. While American dirt horses are bred for "speed-on-speed," the Europeans are bred to go 12 furlongs without breaking a sweat. If the lineup for the Belmont Stakes includes a horse with a heavy turf pedigree and they can handle the kickback of the dirt hitting them in the face, they are a massive threat.
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The Human Element: Jockeys and Trainers
The lineup isn't just horses; it's the teams behind them. A jockey like Irad Ortiz Jr. or Flavien Prat knows how to "save ground." In a long race like the Belmont, if a jockey takes a horse wide on the turns, they are essentially forcing that horse to run an extra 30 or 40 feet. Over a mile and a half, that’s the difference between a win and a fourth-place finish.
The trainers are just as vital. Look for:
- Todd Pletcher: The king of the Belmont. He targets this race specifically.
- Brad Cox: Always has his horses fit. They rarely "short" (run out of gas) in the stretch.
- Kenny McPeek: He’s a gambler. He’ll enter a horse in the lineup for the Belmont Stakes that nobody expects, like he did with Sarava at 70-1 or the filly Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness.
How to Analyze This Year's Lineup for the Belmont Stakes
Stop looking at the morning line odds. They are a guess made by one guy at the track. Instead, look at the "Speed Figures." If a horse has been consistently running 100+ Beyer Speed Figures at shorter distances, they have the talent. But do they have the lungs?
Check the "dosage profile." This is a mathematical look at a horse's pedigree to determine if they are bred for speed or distance. A horse with a high dosage index is a sprinter. They might lead the lineup for the Belmont Stakes for the first mile, but they will "hit the wall" when they see the grandstand.
Also, watch the weather. A "sloppy" or "muddy" track at Saratoga or Belmont changes everything. Some horses love the mud; others hate getting splashed. If the lineup is full of "need the lead" horses and the track is heavy, the race becomes a war of attrition.
Finalizing Your Strategy
When the official lineup for the Belmont Stakes is announced (usually the Tuesday or Wednesday before the Saturday race), the first thing you should do is look at the post positions. Being stuck on the far outside in a large field is a nightmare. The horse has to sprint just to get over to the rail, or they risk being caught wide the whole way.
Conversely, the "1 hole" (the rail) can be a trap. If a horse doesn't break fast enough, they get pinned inside by the rest of the field and have dirt kicked in their face for ten minutes. You want a horse in the middle—posts 4 through 8 are usually the "sweet spot" for a clean trip.
Actionable Steps for Race Day
To truly master the lineup for the Belmont Stakes, follow these specific steps:
- Download the Past Performances (PPs): Don't rely on the free programs. Get the detailed PPs from Daily Racing Form or Equibase. Look for "finish positions" in races longer than 1 1/8 miles.
- Watch the "Walk Over": Before the race, watch the horses walk from the barn to the paddock. If a horse is "washed out" (covered in white sweat), they are nervous and wasting energy. You want a horse that is calm, cool, and professional.
- Track the "Bias": Watch the races earlier in the day. Is the rail "dead"? Are horses winning from the back? The track surface changes throughout the day, and the lineup for the Belmont Stakes will be affected by how the dirt is groomed.
- Ignore the Hype: Every year, there’s a "buzz horse" that everyone talks about on social media. Usually, it’s a horse that had one flashy workout. Stick to the data, the pedigree, and the proven endurance.
The Belmont Stakes is the ultimate test for a reason. It exposes every flaw in a horse's physical makeup and every mistake a trainer made in their preparation. By the time the horses hit the "elbow" of the stretch, the pretenders will disappear, and only the true distance runners will be left standing. Pay attention to the horses that are "galloping out" after their previous races; they are the ones telling you they wanted more ground. Listen to them.