It was the race that simply wouldn't end. If you were watching the news in late 2024, you probably felt that familiar sense of exhaustion. The polls had closed, the stickers were peeled off, and yet, Pennsylvania was still stuck in a loop. Dave McCormick and Bob Casey were locked in a statistical embrace that felt more like a hostage situation for the voters than a standard election.
So, let's get right to it.
Dave McCormick won the recount. He didn't just win it by some massive landslide that made the previous weeks look like a joke; he won because the math barely budged. After millions of dollars spent on legal fees and a statewide effort to re-examine every single paper ballot and digital record across 67 counties, the needle moved by a fraction of a percent. It was a victory for McCormick, sure, but it was also a massive testament to the fact that our modern counting systems are—despite what you might hear on social media—actually pretty boringly accurate.
Why the Pennsylvania Recount Actually Happened
Pennsylvania law is pretty strict. It’s not like a candidate can just demand a recount because they have a "bad feeling" about the results. There is a "trigger."
Whenever the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5% or less, an automatic statewide recount is kicked into gear. When the initial unofficial tallies came in, McCormick was leading by roughly 26,000 votes. In a state where nearly 7 million people cast a ballot, that is a razor-thin margin. It was roughly 0.39%.
That’s the "danger zone."
Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt had to make the call. It wasn't a choice; it was a mandate. Casey, a titan of Pennsylvania politics who had held that seat for eighteen years, wasn't ready to concede until every provisional and "undervote" was checked. Can you blame him? When your career is on the line and the gap is that small, you wait for the final whistle.
The Math Behind the McCormick Victory
People often think recounts are these dramatic movie moments where someone finds a box of 50,000 ballots in a basement and the whole thing flips.
That almost never happens.
📖 Related: The Galveston Hurricane 1900 Orphanage Story Is More Tragic Than You Realized
In the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race, the recount confirmed what the initial scanners already knew. The process involves re-scanning ballots or, in some jurisdictions, manual hand counts of specific samples. By the time the dust settled in late November, McCormick's lead remained largely intact.
The fluctuations were tiny. Maybe a voter in Erie County used a green pen that the machine missed the first time, but a human eye caught it during the recount. Maybe a stray mark in Allegheny County was clarified. We are talking about changes in the tens or hundreds of votes, not the thousands.
McCormick’s transition into the Senate was already moving forward while the recount was happening. He even showed up for Senate orientation in D.C., which caused a bit of a stir among Democrats who felt it was premature. But the math was always on his side. To flip a 26,000-vote lead in a recount is statistically almost impossible. You'd need a systemic machine failure, and Pennsylvania’s dual-check systems (paper trails plus digital captures) make that a fantasy.
The Fight Over the "Dated" Envelopes
The real drama wasn't in the counting machines. It was in the courtrooms.
You've probably heard about the "undated" or "incorrectly dated" mail-in ballots. This was the primary battleground. Pennsylvania law requires voters to sign and date the outer envelope of their mail-in ballots. Some voters forgot. Some wrote their birthday instead of the current date.
The Casey campaign argued these were technicalities. They wanted them counted. They argued that if the ballot arrived at the board of elections on time, the date on the envelope shouldn't matter. It’s a "minor error," they said.
The McCormick camp—and the Republican National Committee—disagreed. They went straight to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.
The court actually had to step in during the recount to tell county officials to stop counting those undated ballots. It was a huge blow to Casey’s path to victory. Without those thousands of contested mail-in ballots, Casey had no "reservoir" of votes to draw from to close that 26,000-vote gap.
👉 See also: Why the Air France Crash Toronto Miracle Still Changes How We Fly
The Cost of the Recount
Let's talk money. This wasn't free.
The estimated cost for a statewide recount in Pennsylvania is over $1 million. Taxpayers pick up the tab for an automatic recount. While that sounds like a lot—and it is—it's the price of certainty. In a polarized environment, having a definitive, double-checked answer is arguably worth the price tag to prevent years of "stolen election" rhetoric from taking root.
However, some critics pointed out that since the margin didn't really move, the money could have been spent elsewhere. But that’s hindsight. At the moment the trigger was pulled, nobody knew for sure if a specific county had a glitch.
What This Means for Pennsylvania’s Future
Bob Casey eventually conceded. It was a quiet end to a long legacy. His departure marked a massive shift in the state’s political identity. For years, the "Casey" name was gold in Pennsylvania—a pro-union, culturally moderate (though shifting more progressive over time) brand that appealed to both Scranton coal towns and Philadelphia suburbs.
Dave McCormick's win flipped that.
McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Treasury Department official, represents a different wing of the GOP. He’s polished, wealthy, and focused heavily on economic policy and national security. His victory gave Republicans a crucial seat in their bid to control the Senate, changing the math for judicial appointments and federal legislation for the next six years.
Nuance in the Numbers
It's easy to say "McCormick won," but we should look at where he won. He made significant inroads in places like Bucks County and parts of the Lehigh Valley. These are the "bellwether" areas. If you can win the suburbs of Philly or the industrial heart of Allentown, you win the state.
Casey actually performed quite well in many areas, but the "red wall" in rural Pennsylvania was simply too high. The recount proved that the rural-urban divide is deeper than ever. In some counties, McCormick was winning 70% or 80% of the vote. You can’t make up that kind of ground with just a few extra mail-in ballots from the city.
✨ Don't miss: Robert Hanssen: What Most People Get Wrong About the FBI's Most Damaging Spy
Common Misconceptions About the 2024 Recount
"The recount was stopped by the Supreme Court." Not exactly. The counting of specific, disputed ballots (the undated ones) was stopped. The actual recount of all legal ballots continued until every county finished its work.
"Recounts change the winner all the time." Honestly? Almost never. Since 2000, there have been dozens of statewide recounts across the U.S., and only a handful have ever flipped the result (think Al Franken in 2008). Usually, the margin only moves by a few hundred votes.
"It was a waste of time." Depends on who you ask. For the Casey campaign, it was a necessary legal exercise. For the voters, it was a crash course in how election law works.
Real-World Impact
When the recount was finalized and the results were certified, the official margin remained comfortably in McCormick's favor. He was sworn in as the junior Senator from Pennsylvania in January 2025.
The fallout of this recount led to immediate calls for legislative reform. Both Republicans and Democrats in the Pennsylvania General Assembly started talking about "pre-canvassing." This is a fancy way of saying "letting officials start opening mail-in envelopes before Election Day." If Pennsylvania did this, we probably wouldn't have to wait weeks for a recount to tell us what we already suspected on election night.
But for now, the law is the law.
Actionable Insights for Following Future Recounts
If you find yourself in the middle of another "who won the recount" news cycle in the future, keep these tips in mind to stay sane:
- Watch the "Trigger" Margin: Most states have a 0.5% or 0.25% threshold. If the gap is larger than that, a recount is almost certainly not going to change the winner.
- Ignore the "New Box of Ballots" Rumors: These are almost always provisional ballots that were already known to exist but hadn't been processed yet. They aren't "found"—they are "queued."
- Focus on the Courts: The recount itself is a mechanical process. The real changes happen in the courtroom where judges decide which types of ballots are allowed to be counted in the first place.
- Check the Secretary of State’s Website: Local news is great, but the official "Certification of Results" page on a state's government site is the only place where the numbers are final.
The 2024 Pennsylvania recount wasn't just a political battle; it was a stress test for the state's electoral infrastructure. It held up. Dave McCormick took the seat, Bob Casey took his exit, and the voters got a final, verified answer. It took a while, but that's just how the system is designed to work when things get this close.
To stay informed on upcoming election law changes in Pennsylvania, you should monitor the Pennsylvania Department of State’s press releases regarding the 2026 midterms. Understanding the specific rules for mail-in voting in your county is the best way to ensure your own ballot never ends up in the "disputed" pile during a future recount.