It happened. If you missed the games last night, you missed a chaotic shift in the postseason hierarchy that most analysts didn't see coming. We are officially in the thick of the 2026 NFL playoffs, and last night’s results didn't just decide who moves on—they fundamentally changed how we look at the Super Bowl favorites.
The Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs both secured massive wins, but they did it in ways that couldn't be more different. Detroit looked like a juggernaut. Kansas City, honestly, looked like a team that knows exactly how to win when they aren't playing their best football. It’s that January magic. Or maybe it’s just Patrick Mahomes being Patrick Mahomes again.
The Lions Are No Longer the Underdogs
Let’s talk about Detroit first. For decades, the narrative was "Same Old Lions." That's dead. Last night, the Lions absolutely dismantled the Philadelphia Eagles in a game that felt over by the middle of the second quarter. Jared Goff was clinical. He finished 22 of 28 for 295 yards and three touchdowns. But the real story? The offensive line.
Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow are playing at a level that feels unfair to defensive ends. They created lanes so wide for Jahmyr Gibbs that he practically walked into the end zone twice.
People keep waiting for the Lions to blink. They aren't blinking. Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness—going for it on 4th and 3 at the opponent's 40-yard line—has shifted from "reckless" to "statistically superior." According to Next Gen Stats, Detroit’s win probability jumped 12% just on two successful fourth-down conversions in the first half alone. It’s a masterclass in coaching confidence.
Mahomes and the Chiefs Survive a Scare
Over in the AFC, it was a different vibe. The Kansas City Chiefs walked away with a win against the Houston Texans, but man, it was ugly for a while. C.J. Stroud is the real deal. He had the Chiefs' secondary spinning for three quarters.
But then the fourth quarter started.
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This is where the experience gap shows. While the Texans started playing "not to lose," Mahomes started taking shots. The game-winning drive was a 12-play, 80-yard march that ate six minutes off the clock. Travis Kelce, even at this stage of his career, found the soft spot in the zone three times on that drive. It’s like they have a telepathic connection.
The final score doesn't tell the whole story. If you just look at the ticker, you see a 24-20 Chiefs win. If you watched the game, you saw a Houston team that is one veteran linebacker away from being the best team in the AFC. But "almost" doesn't get you to the AFC Championship.
Why These Wins Change the Betting Lines
Vegas reacted immediately.
Before last night, the Lions were still hovering around +700 to win it all. This morning? They’ve jumped to +450. The respect is finally there.
The Chiefs remain the favorites because, well, betting against Mahomes in January is a great way to lose money. However, the defensive cracks are showing. Kansas City struggled to stop the run early, allowing Joe Mixon to average 5.2 yards per carry. If they face a team like the Ravens or the Lions next, that defensive front has to tighten up or the "dynasty" talk ends abruptly.
Key Takeaways from the Box Scores:
- Jared Goff’s Accuracy: 78.5% completion rate is his playoff career-high.
- Chiefs' Defense: They allowed 140 rushing yards, their highest in a win this season.
- Detroit’s Pressure: Aidan Hutchinson recorded 2.5 sacks, a terrifying stat for any remaining AFC quarterbacks.
- Turnover Margin: Houston lost the game because of two muffed punts and a late interception. Clean football wins in January.
The Stroud vs. Mahomes Debate
We have to address it. Is C.J. Stroud already a top-three quarterback? Last night suggested yes. Even in a loss, his ability to manipulate the pocket under pressure from Chris Jones was elite.
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Expert analyst Brian Baldinger noted on his "Baldy’s Breakdowns" this morning that Stroud’s eyes never dropped to the rush. That’s a veteran trait. The league is in good hands with this new crop of QBs, but Mahomes proved he still owns the "clutch" gene. He doesn't panic. When the pocket collapses, he just flips the ball underhand to a running back for a first down. It’s frustrating to watch if you’re a Texans fan, but it’s greatness in real-time.
What’s Next for the Winners?
Detroit stays home. That’s huge. Ford Field was the loudest it has ever been last night—decibel meters hitting 127.6 dB at one point. Having home-field advantage in the next round is the difference between a Super Bowl appearance and a "tough loss."
The Chiefs have to travel. That’s the catch. Because of their regular-season seeding, they might find themselves in a cold, hostile environment in Baltimore or Buffalo. Mahomes on the road in the playoffs used to be a rarity, but now it’s the standard path.
The Reality of Injury Reports
We can't ignore the casualties of last night.
Lions fans are holding their breath over Sam LaPorta’s ankle. He limped off in the fourth quarter. While Campbell said it "didn't look too bad," an ankle sprain for a tight end who is the safety valve for the offense is a massive deal.
On the Chiefs' side, their secondary took a hit. Cornerback Trent McDuffie was seen in a walking boot post-game. If he’s out for the next round, the Chiefs' ability to play man-to-man coverage evaporates. They’ll have to play more soft zone, which is a death sentence against high-level processors like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen.
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The Tactical Shift: Run-Heavy Success
One thing that stood out last night was the return of the ground game. We’ve spent years talking about the "passing league," but last night, the teams that won were the teams that could run the ball when everyone knew they were going to run it.
Detroit didn't just run; they bullied.
When you can line up in 12-personnel (one back, two tight ends) and gain 6 yards on first down consistently, the defense dies a slow death. It tires out the pass rushers. By the fourth quarter, the Eagles' defensive line looked gassed. This is the blueprint for winning in February. You have to be able to take the air out of the ball.
Actionable Steps for Football Fans This Week
Don't just wait for next Sunday. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, here is what you should be doing to prepare for the next round of the NFL playoffs:
- Monitor the Injury Reports: Specifically watch for Sam LaPorta (DET) and Trent McDuffie (KC). Their status will swing the betting lines by at least 2 points.
- Watch the All-22 Film: If you have NFL+, look at how the Lions used their offensive line in "trap" schemes. It’s a masterclass in modern power running.
- Check the Weather: The next round of games is scheduled for cities where snow is a high possibility. This favors teams with a strong interior run defense.
- Adjust Your Expectations: The "fluke" wins are over. The teams remaining are the elite of the elite. Expect closer margins and more conservative play-calling as the stakes rise.
The playoffs are a war of attrition. Last night proved that talent gets you to the dance, but depth and coaching win the trophy. Detroit looks like the most complete team in football right now, but never, ever bet against a healthy Patrick Mahomes in a one-game playoff scenario. We are in for a wild ride over the next three weeks.