Honestly, it felt like the 2024 election cycle would never actually end. For weeks, we were all glued to those flickering red and blue maps, waiting for California and the Pacific Northwest to finally count enough ballots to tell us who won the house in the election.
The dust has long since settled, and as we sit here in early 2026, the reality of the 119th Congress is pretty clear: Republicans pulled it off, but barely.
It wasn't some massive "red wave" that washed away the opposition. Instead, it was more of a slow, grinding crawl to the finish line. The GOP managed to secure a 220-215 majority. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it’s almost identical to where they started. It is the narrowest House majority since 1930.
Basically, Mike Johnson kept his gavel, but he’s basically walking a tightrope every single day.
The Brutal Math of a Five-Seat Margin
When people ask who won the house in the election, they usually just want a name or a party. But the "how" is way more interesting. The Republicans won the popular vote for the House by about 4 million votes—roughly a 2.6% margin. You’d think that would translate to a comfortable cushion. It didn't.
The math was actually decided by just over 7,000 votes scattered across three specific districts:
- Iowa's 1st
- Colorado's 8th * And Pennsylvania's 7th
If 7,000 people in those spots had woken up and decided to stay home or flip their vote, Hakeem Jeffries would be the Speaker right now. That’s how thin the ice is.
✨ Don't miss: Why the Air France Crash Toronto Miracle Still Changes How We Fly
A Tale of Two Parties
Democrats actually made a net gain of one seat. It was the smallest net change in the history of the U.S. House of Representatives. Think about that for a second. With 148 million votes cast, the needle barely moved.
Democrats overperformed in swing districts, especially in New York and California, where they managed to claw back some territory. For example, in New York's 4th district, Laura Gillen took down Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito. In the 19th and 22nd, Josh Riley and John Mannion did the same.
But it wasn't enough to overcome the GOP's dominance in the middle of the country and the South.
The Current 2026 Reality
Right now, the House is in a bit of a weird state. As of January 2026, we’re actually looking at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats, with four vacancies due to various reasons, including the tragic passing of Representative Doug LaMalfa earlier this month.
When you have a majority that small, every single member has the power of a kingmaker.
Why the 2024 Results Still Matter
The 2024 results created a Republican trifecta—control of the White House, the Senate (53-47), and the House. This "clean sweep" gave President Trump a path to enact his "America First" agenda, but the House has been the bottleneck.
🔗 Read more: Robert Hanssen: What Most People Get Wrong About the FBI's Most Damaging Spy
Because Speaker Johnson can only afford to lose a couple of votes on any given bill, the "Freedom Caucus" and the moderate wing of the GOP are constantly at each other's throats.
It’s messy. Kinda chaotic, too.
Shocking Flips and Historic Firsts
We saw some wild results that nobody really predicted. In Alaska, Nicholas Begich flipped the at-large seat by defeating Mary Peltola. Over in Michigan’s 7th, Tom Barrett took over the seat vacated by Elissa Slotkin.
And we can't talk about the 119th Congress without mentioning Sarah McBride. By winning Delaware’s at-large seat, she became the first openly transgender member of Congress. Regardless of your politics, that’s a massive historical marker.
The Redistricting Factor
A lot of people forget that redistricting played a huge role in who won the house in the election. North Carolina, for instance, saw a massive shift. The state's new maps essentially handed three seats to the Republicans. Addison McDowell, Brad Knott, and Timothy K. Moore all walked into seats that were previously held or favored by Democrats.
Without those three seats in North Carolina, the House would be tied right now.
💡 You might also like: Why the Recent Snowfall Western New York State Emergency Was Different
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Midterms
We’re already seeing the gears turn for the next fight. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms. If that trend holds, Republicans are in serious trouble.
Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to take back control in November 2026.
Recent polling from groups like Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics shows Democrats with a roughly 4-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a flashing red light for the GOP.
The "Crossover" Seats
There are 14 districts currently held by Democrats that Donald Trump won in 2024. Conversely, there are nine districts held by Republicans that Kamala Harris won. These 23 seats are basically the only ones that matter in the upcoming election.
Places like Maine’s 2nd district, where Jared Golden is retiring, or California’s 3rd, where Kevin Kiley is defending a slim margin, are going to be the center of the political universe for the next ten months.
What You Should Do Now
If you want to stay ahead of the curve as the 2026 midterms approach, here’s how to actually track what's happening without getting overwhelmed by the noise:
- Watch the Vacancies: Keep an eye on the special elections scheduled for early 2026. If Democrats flip even one of the currently vacant Republican seats, the GOP majority effectively vanishes for day-to-day legislating.
- Monitor the Retirement List: As of today, 47 representatives have announced they aren't running again. Open seats are much easier to flip than seats with an incumbent. Watch the "retirement surge" in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
- Follow the Money: Check the quarterly FEC filings for the DCCC and NRCC. In a margin this thin, the party that can flood the airwaves in those 23 "crossover" districts usually wins the House.
- Check Local Results: Don't just look at national polls. Look at how local issues—like the "Working Families Tax Cut" or rural healthcare investments—are playing in specific districts in the Midwest. That’s where the 2026 election will be won or lost.
The 2024 election proved that every single vote in a handful of counties can change the direction of the country. As we move closer to the next vote, the stakes for who won the house in the election have never been higher.