Texas is loud. Everything there is, right? From the trucks to the politics, it’s a place that demands your attention. So, when people ask who won Texas in 2020, they usually expect a simple name.
Donald Trump won.
He took the state’s 38 electoral votes. But that’s just the scoreboard. If you only look at the final tally, you’re missing the earthquake happening underneath the soil.
Texas hasn’t gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. That’s a long time. It’s basically a lifetime in politics. But 2020 was weird. It was the closest presidential race the state had seen in decades. Trump won by 5.58 percentage points. Compare that to 2016, where he won by nine. Or 2012, when Mitt Romney blew the doors off with a 16-point lead.
You see the trend?
Breaking Down the 2020 Results in the Lone Star State
The final count was 5,890,347 votes for Donald Trump and 5,259,126 for Joe Biden. Trump grabbed 52.1% of the total, while Biden pulled in 46.5%.
It sounds like a solid win. In many states, a 600,000-vote margin is a landslide. But in a state with nearly 30 million people, it’s a nail-biter for the GOP. Texas is changing. Fast.
The story of who won Texas in 2020 is really a story of geography. If you look at a map of the results, it’s a sea of red with islands of deep blue. Those islands are where the people live. Biden dominated the "Texas Triangle"—Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio.
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Austin (Travis County) was a blowout. Biden took over 70% of the vote there. In Dallas County, he won by double digits. Even Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth and has been a conservative stronghold for ages, flipped blue. It was a tiny margin—just a fraction of a percent—but it was a massive symbolic blow.
But then you have the Rio Grande Valley.
This is where the "Blue Wave" narrative hit a brick wall. For years, political consultants assumed that as the Hispanic population grew, Texas would naturally turn blue. 2020 proved them wrong. In Zapata County, a place that is almost entirely Hispanic, Trump won. It was the first time a Republican won there in a century.
Why? Because voters aren't monoliths. People in South Texas care about the oil industry. They care about border security. They care about small businesses. Biden’s rhetoric on "transitioning" away from oil didn't play well in places where the oil patch puts food on the table.
The Suburban Shift
The suburbs used to be where Republicans went to relax. Places like Collin County (north of Dallas) or Denton County were deep red. In 2020, they became battlegrounds.
Trump still won them. But his margins evaporated.
Educated suburban voters—specifically women—moved away from the Trump brand in droves. They didn't necessarily become liberals overnight. They just didn't like the tone. They didn't like the chaos. Meanwhile, the rural areas stayed fiercely loyal. In some West Texas counties, Trump was pulling 80% or 90% of the vote. That’s North Korea-style numbers.
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This creates a massive tension. You have the booming, high-tech cities moving one way and the vast, agricultural heartland moving the other.
Why the Result Matters for Future Elections
Texas is the "Great White Whale" for Democrats. They’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to flip it. They talk about "Beto-mania" and the changing demographics.
But 2020 showed that demographics aren't destiny.
The state is getting younger and more diverse, yes. But it’s also staying very "Texan." There’s a libertarian streak that runs through the state. People move to Texas from California and New York because they want lower taxes and less regulation. They aren't always looking to vote for the same policies they just fled.
Another factor? Turnout.
Texas used to be a low-turnout state. In 2020, people actually showed up. Over 66% of registered voters cast a ballot. That’s the highest since 1992. When more people vote in Texas, things get tighter.
The Misconception of the "Purple" State
Is Texas a swing state? Honestly, not yet.
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A 5.5-point win is still a win. Republicans still control every statewide office. They control both houses of the state legislature. They’ve held the Governor’s mansion since George W. Bush took it in 1994.
To say Texas is "purple" is a bit of a stretch. It’s more like a "bright red state with a fever." The 2020 results showed that the GOP can't take the state for granted anymore. They have to fight for it. They have to spend money here. Every dollar spent in Texas is a dollar they can’t spend in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
That, in itself, is a win for the Democrats.
What to Watch Moving Forward
If you want to understand the future of American politics, watch the Texas suburbs. Watch the Rio Grande Valley.
The 2020 election wasn't just about Trump vs. Biden. It was a stress test for the political identity of the largest red state in the union.
If Republicans continue to lose ground in the suburbs, they’ll have to make up for it by making even bigger gains with Hispanic voters. If Democrats can't figure out how to talk to rural voters or people in the energy sector, they’ll remain the party of the "big city islands" and nothing else.
It's a chess match.
Actionable Insights for Following Texas Politics:
- Check the "Triangle" margins: In future elections, don't just look at who wins. Look at whether the Republican margin in the suburbs is shrinking or growing. That’s the real bellwether.
- Follow the money: Watch where national parties spend their cash. If they start buying airtime in El Paso or McAllen, they’re worried about the Hispanic vote.
- Watch the voter registration numbers: Texas adds hundreds of thousands of new residents every year. Where they settle and whether they register to vote determines the state's path.
- Look at the "down-ballot" races: Often, the race for Railroad Commissioner or Attorney General tells you more about the state's true leanings than the noisy presidential circus.
Texas is no longer a "set it and forget it" state for the GOP. The 2020 result was a loud, clear signal that the political landscape is shifting beneath everyone's feet. Whether it eventually flips or stays red depends on which party can better speak to the "new" Texan—someone who might live in a Plano suburb, work in tech, but still values the independence that the state was built on.