The energy in Denver was different today. You could feel it through the screen. When Wil Lutz’s 23-yard field goal cleared the uprights in overtime, the collective exhale from Broncos Country probably registered on a seismograph. It was messy, beautiful, and absolutely heart-wrenching all at once. If you’re looking for who won playoff games on this wild Saturday, January 17, 2026, the answer is a tale of two very different cities.
Denver and Seattle are moving on. Buffalo and San Francisco are heading to the golf course.
The Mile High Heartbreak: Broncos 33, Bills 30 (OT)
Honestly, Josh Allen is going to see orange jerseys in his sleep for a month. The Bills didn’t punt once. Think about that. Eleven drives, zero punts, and they still lost. Why? Because they turned the ball over five times. You just can’t do that in January. Not against Sean Payton, and certainly not on the road.
Bo Nix looked like a seasoned vet for most of the night. He finished 26-of-46 for 279 yards and three scores. But the victory lap was cut short. In a move that stunned the post-game press room, Payton announced Nix broke his ankle in that final overtime drive. He’s out. Just like that, the Broncos won the battle but might have lost the war. Jarrett Stidham is now the man tasked with a trip to the AFC Championship.
The Bills gashed Denver’s defense on the ground. James Cook was a monster, racking up 117 yards, but his early fumble really set a bad tone. Buffalo put up 449 yards of offense. In almost any other universe, those numbers win you a football game. But five giveaways? That’s a death sentence.
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Key Stats from Denver
- Bo Nix: 279 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT (and a season-ending injury).
- Josh Allen: 283 passing yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 fumbles lost.
- Wil Lutz: Game-winning 23-yard FG in OT.
- Takeaway: Denver scored 16 points directly off Buffalo turnovers.
Seattle’s Absolute Massacre of the 49ers
If the Denver game was a chess match, the nightcap at Lumen Field was a sledgehammer. The Seahawks didn't just win; they erased the San Francisco 49ers. 41-6. It was a bloodbath from the jump.
Rasheed Shaheed—what a trade that was—took the opening kickoff 95 yards to the house. The 12th Man hadn't even finished their first beer before the lead was 7-0. From there, Mike Macdonald’s defense just suffocated Brock Purdy. The Niners didn't score a single touchdown. Not one.
Kenneth Walker III played like a man possessed. He’s the first Seahawk to hit 100 rushing yards in a playoff game since Thomas Rawls nearly a decade ago. He found the end zone three times. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, Sam Darnold was in the game for Seattle just to run out the clock.
Why the Niners Collapsed
- Injuries: No George Kittle was a massive hole they couldn't fill.
- Turnovers: Ernest Jones IV was everywhere, picking off Purdy and forcing fumbles.
- Pressure: Demarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams lived in the backfield.
The "Zombie Niners" finally ran out of gas. They’ve been playing with house money for weeks given their injury report, but Seattle is a different beast right now. They haven't allowed San Francisco a touchdown in eight straight quarters of football. That’s defensive dominance you rarely see in the modern NFL.
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What Most People Get Wrong About This Bracket
Everyone focuses on the stars, but the real reason for these outcomes? Mid-season trades and depth. Seattle’s acquisition of Ernest Jones IV and Rasheed Shaheed completely transformed their ceiling. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ reliance on a rookie/sophomore QB development plan worked until the injury bug bit.
The narrative tonight will be about the "cursed" Bills or the "unstoppable" Seahawks. But look closer. It's about the turnover margin. Buffalo lost because they were sloppy. San Francisco lost because they were physically beaten at the line of scrimmage.
Moving Forward: The Championship Outlook
So, we have half of the Final Four set. Denver is in, but they're limping. Seattle is in, and they look like the scariest team in the league.
Tomorrow, the rest of the puzzle pieces fall into place.
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- Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 3:05 PM ET.
- Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 6:40 PM ET.
If you’re betting on the AFC, the Nix injury changes everything. Denver went from +325 favorites to +1000 almost instantly. If the Texans or Patriots can't capitalize on a Stidham-led Broncos team next week, they’ll have nobody to blame but themselves.
On the NFC side, Seattle is waiting for the winner of Rams-Bears. If Caleb Williams plays like he did in the Wild Card comeback against Green Bay, we might be headed for an all-timer in the NFC North vs. West showdown.
Keep an eye on the injury reports for Christian McCaffrey (stinger) and Bo Nix’s surgery timeline. These details matter for next season’s projections and current roster moves. If you're managing a dynasty league or just following the breadcrumbs for the Super Bowl in Santa Clara, the defensive metrics coming out of Seattle are the only thing that should scare you.
Actionable Insights for Fans
- Monitor the Lines: Expect the spread for the AFC Championship to swing wildly once the Sunday games conclude.
- Value the Defense: Seattle’s defensive EPA is currently top of the league; they are the "safe" pick for the Super Bowl right now.
- Watch the Backup QB: Study Jarrett Stidham's preseason tape. He’s about to be the most talked-about man in Colorado.
The road to Super Bowl LX just got a lot more interesting. One team is dominant, and the other is praying for a miracle from their backup. That’s playoff football.