The debate is finally over. After months of checking betting odds and arguing on social media about whether efficiency matters more than raw volume, we have our answer. Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams is the frontrunner to take home the hardware for the 2025-2026 season, essentially locking it up after a wild Week 18.
But honestly? This year felt different.
Usually, there's a clear "guy" by December. We've spent years watching Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson just pull away from the pack like they’re playing on a lower difficulty setting. This season was a legitimate street fight between the old guard and the new era. You had Stafford, at 37 years old, playing some of the most refined football of his life, while a 23-year-old rookie-turned-sophomore-star in New England, Drake Maye, almost pulled off the upset of the century.
Matthew Stafford: The Case for the Vet
If you look at the raw numbers, it’s hard to argue against Stafford. The man was a machine. He finished the regular season leading the league in passing yards (4,707) and touchdown passes (46). That’s not just "good for his age." That’s elite for any era.
Think about this: Stafford threw 12 more touchdowns than the next guy on the list, Jared Goff. Twelve! That’s a massive gap in a league where the margins are usually razor-thin. He also did this while dealing with a degenerative back condition that kept him out of training camp. Most guys his age would be looking at a headset and a clipboard, but Stafford was out there shredding secondaries with Puka Nacua.
His "MVP moment" basically happened in the season finale against the Arizona Cardinals. Going into that game, the momentum had actually shifted toward New England. But Stafford walked onto the field and hung four touchdowns on the Cards, reclaiming his spot as the betting favorite at -165. It was a statement. He wasn't just managing the game; he was the reason the Rams secured the No. 5 seed.
The Drake Maye Threat
Now, we have to talk about the kid in Foxborough. Drake Maye's season was, frankly, ridiculous.
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Nobody—and I mean nobody—expected the Patriots to go 14-3 this year. They were supposed to be rebuilding. Instead, Maye led them to the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. He didn't have Stafford's bulk stats, but he had the efficiency. He led the NFL in passer rating (113.5) and completion percentage (70%).
- Total Yards: 4,394 passing / 450 rushing
- Touchdowns: 31 passing / 4 rushing
- Efficiency: Highest EPA per dropback in the league (0.29)
For a while, it looked like Maye was going to run away with it. After he dismantled the Jets in Week 17, he was an overwhelming -350 favorite. But he went quiet in the final week while Stafford exploded. That’s the thing about the MVP—it’s a "what have you done for me lately" award. Maye's 191-yard performance against Miami in the finale just didn't have the same "wow" factor that voters look for when they're filling out ballots on Monday morning.
What About the "Josh Allen" Effect?
We can't ignore the reigning MVP. Josh Allen won it last year (the 2024 season) in one of the closest votes we’ve seen since Matt Ryan beat out Tom Brady. Allen had 27 first-place votes to Lamar Jackson’s 23. It was tight.
This year, Allen was still incredible, but he didn't have the same narrative push. He threw for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 14 scores on the ground. Those are video game numbers, but when you're the "reigning" guy, the bar is just higher. People expect him to be superhuman every week. If he’s just "great," it feels like a regression to the voters.
Plus, the Bills changed their philosophy. They became the No. 1 rushing offense in the league. When James Cook is handling that much of the load, it naturally takes the "Valuable" part of the MVP away from the quarterback in the eyes of some old-school voters.
The All-Pro Hint
If you want to know who is definitely winning the MVP, you usually look at the All-Pro First Team.
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The Associated Press (AP) revealed the 2025 All-Pro Team just a few days ago, and Stafford took the First-Team Quarterback spot. He got 31 first-place votes compared to Maye's 18. Historically, the guy who wins First-Team All-Pro at QB wins the MVP about 90% of the time. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s as close as you can get.
It’s interesting because Maye actually had better advanced metrics. His "Big-Time Throw" percentage and QBR were higher. But the NFL is still a league that loves the counting stats. When a guy throws 46 touchdowns, it’s almost impossible to vote against him.
Breaking Down the Other Finalists
While the Stafford vs. Maye battle took up all the oxygen in the room, a few other guys put up seasons that would have won the award in any other year.
- Myles Garrett (Browns): He was almost a unanimous Defensive Player of the Year. He finished with 22 sacks, nearly breaking the all-time record. Some executives actually gave him MVP votes because he was doing this on a 3-12 team. He was the only reason they were even competitive in games.
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles): Coming off a 2,000-yard season last year, he remained a force. He didn't hit the same heights this year, but he’s still the engine of that Philly offense.
- Joe Burrow (Bengals): After the wrist injury, he came back and led the league in passing yards for a good chunk of the year. He finished with over 4,900 yards and 43 touchdowns. In a world without Matthew Stafford’s 46 TDs, Burrow might be holding the trophy.
Why the MVP Announcement Happens Later
So, if we know the stats and we’ve seen the All-Pro votes, why haven't they handed out the trophy yet?
The NFL loves a spectacle. The official "Most Valuable Player" is announced at the NFL Honors ceremony. This year, it’s happening on Thursday, February 5, 2026, at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco. It’s part of the Super Bowl LX festivities.
The votes are already in. The 50-member panel submitted their ballots the day after the regular season ended. The accounting firm Lutz and Carr is currently holding those results under lock and key. Even the players don't know for sure until the envelope is opened on stage.
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Final Verdict on the Race
The 2025 season showed us that age is just a number. Matthew Stafford proving he can still dominate at 37 is a massive story. But Drake Maye proving that a young QB can walk into a "bad" situation and fix a franchise overnight is arguably more impressive.
Ultimately, the MVP is about who had the most impact on the league's landscape this year. Stafford’s volume and his late-season surge to save the Rams' season gave him the edge. He played mistake-free football when it mattered most, throwing only eight interceptions despite leading the league in attempts.
Actionable Insights for Fans
If you're following the awards or betting on next year, here is what you need to keep in mind:
- Watch the Week 18 Performances: The MVP is often won in the final three hours of the regular season. Stafford’s 4-TD game vs. Maye’s "average" game changed the entire narrative.
- All-Pro is the Tell: Always check the AP All-Pro First Team. It’s the best "spoiler" for the NFL Honors.
- Context Matters: Stats are great, but leading a 4-13 team to 14-3 (like Maye did) carries a lot of weight with younger, more analytically-minded voters.
Check back on February 5th during the NFL Honors to see the official trophy presentation. Until then, the "unofficial" title belongs to Matthew Stafford.
Next Steps to Stay Ahead of the Postseason:
To get ready for the Super Bowl, you can track the live injury reports for the Rams and Patriots to see how these MVP candidates perform when the stakes are even higher in the playoffs. Follow the official NFL Honors social media channels for real-time updates on the smaller awards like Comeback Player of the Year and Coach of the Year leading up to the big night in San Francisco.