Who Will Win Tonight NFL: Why The Underdogs Might Actually Pull This Off

It is Divisional Round Saturday. If you’ve been following the 2025-26 season, you know this is usually when the "imposters" get sent home and the heavyweights start throwing haymakers. Tonight, we’ve got a double-header that looks lopsided on paper but feels like a trap for anyone just looking at the seeds.

First up, the Buffalo Bills are hiking into the thin air of Mile High to face the top-seeded Denver Broncos. Then, the nightcap gives us a brutal NFC West grudge match between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.

People are asking who will win tonight nfl games because, frankly, the spreads are fascinating. You have Josh Allen—the reigning MVP—as a road underdog. You have a Brock Purdy-led Niners team that is so banged up they’re practically starting a MASH unit, yet they're facing a Seahawks team with a quarterback, Sam Darnold, dealing with his own nagging injury.

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Let's get into the weeds of these matchups.

The Mile High Battle: Bills at Broncos

The Denver Broncos are coming off a 14-3 regular season and a well-deserved bye. Bo Nix has looked like a different human being under Sean Payton’s tutelage. But here is the thing: Buffalo is coming in hot. They just took care of business against Jacksonville, and Josh Allen in January is a different beast.

Honestly, the "short rest" narrative for Buffalo (5 days) vs. Denver’s 13 days of rest is being talked about way too much. Sean Payton is 17-3 straight-up at home when he has 9+ days of rest. That is a terrifying stat if you’re a Bills fan.

Why Buffalo could pull the upset

• The Josh Allen Factor: Allen leads almost every meaningful postseason passing metric since 2018. Without Patrick Mahomes in the bracket this year, he smells blood.
• Denver's Rushing Defense: While the Broncos have a secondary that can lock down most people, they can be vulnerable on the ground. If James Cook can get to the second level, Denver might have a long afternoon.
• Playoff Poise: This is Denver’s first home playoff game since 2015. The jitters are real, even for a veteran coach like Payton.

The Broncos are currently -1.5 favorites. It’s basically a pick'em. The smart money likes Denver because of that defense—they allowed a league-low 29 touchdowns this year. But if Josh Allen decides to play "Hero Ball" and actually succeeds? Good luck.

NFC West War: 49ers at Seahawks

At 8:00 PM ET, it gets personal. The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Lumen Field, which is arguably the loudest, most miserable place to play an away game in the NFL.

Seattle is the No. 1 seed for a reason. Their defense is giving up just 17.2 points per game. That is elite. However, the biggest story in this game isn't the scheme—it’s the training room.

The Injury Disaster

The 49ers are decimated. No George Kittle (Achilles). No Fred Warner. No Nick Bosa. That’s the heart, soul, and spine of the team gone. Yet, the Niners are still 11-6-0 against the spread this year. They are scrappy.

On the flip side, Seattle's Sam Darnold has been a revelation, but he's nursing an oblique injury. If he can't rotate his torso to fire those deep balls to Jaxon Smith-Njigba—who led the league in receiving yards this year—this game stays much closer than the 7-point spread suggests.

Who Will Win Tonight NFL: Final Verdicts

If you’re looking for a definitive answer on who will win tonight nfl matchups, you have to look at the trenches.

For the early game, the Denver Broncos' defensive consistency at home usually wins out. The altitude is a real factor for a Bills team on a short week. But don't expect a blowout. It’ll be a 24-21 type of game.

For the late game, it is almost impossible to pick against Seattle at home given the 49ers' injury list. Missing Kittle and Bosa in the same game is like trying to win a drag race without an engine. Seattle likely covers that 7-point spread, especially if Smith-Njigba continues his tear. He’s been averaging 105.5 yards per game. The Niners' secondary simply isn't equipped to handle that right now.

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Actionable Insights for Tonight

1. Watch the Seattle Oblique: Keep an eye on Sam Darnold's warm-ups. If he’s grimacing on sideline throws, the "Under" (44.5) becomes a very attractive play.
2. Monitor Buffalo's Fatigue: If the Bills look gassed by the third quarter, it's the Mile High effect. Live bet Denver if the game is tied at halftime.
3. Check the Inactives: Specifically for the Niners. If Ricky Pearsall or Trent Williams end up being late scratches, Seattle might win by double digits.

Don't overthink the "No. 1 seed" tag. The playoffs are about health and who has the best quarterback on that specific night. Tonight, we get to see if the young Bo Nix and the revitalized Sam Darnold can actually hold off the grizzled veterans of the AFC and NFC.

Check the final injury reports 90 minutes before kickoff at Empower Field. Buffalo's linebacker depth is paper-thin right now, and if they can't stop the run, Denver will simply bleed the clock out.