January college basketball is a weird, beautiful fever dream. One night you’re watching Arizona look like the 1992 Dream Team, and the next, a team like Nebraska is suddenly a projected 1-seed and everyone is trying to remember where Rienk Mast played before Lincoln. If you’re asking who will win the NCAA tournament, the honest answer usually involves a lot of "it depends." But we’re deep enough into the 2025-26 season to see the pretenders hitting their ceiling while the real heavyweights start to separate.
Right now, the conversation starts and ends with two programs that look like absolute buzzsaws. Arizona and Michigan.
They aren't just winning; they are erasing people. Michigan spent the first two months of the season treating high-major opponents like JV squads, winning games by 30 and 40 points. Arizona, meanwhile, has navigated a minefield of a schedule without a single blemish. But March doesn't care about your December blowout wins. It cares about guard play, defensive efficiency, and who has the "dude" who can get a bucket when the shot clock is at four and the season is on the line.
The Case for the Wildcats and the Wolverines
If you look at the NET rankings or KenPom right now, Michigan and Arizona are basically in a two-team race for the top spot. Dusty May has done something at Michigan that usually takes years—he’s built a roster that plays with a terrifying level of offensive synergy. Before their recent hiccup against Wisconsin, the Wolverines were the undisputed favorites. They're still the betting favorite at +390 on most boards, and for good reason. They have the efficiency numbers that historically correlate with a Final Four run.
Arizona is the different kind of monster. Tommy Lloyd has them at 17-0. They’ve already beaten UConn, Alabama, and Florida. They have Koa Peat, who is playing like an All-American, and Tobe Awaka, who basically treats every rebound like a personal insult. When you look at who will win the NCAA tournament, you look for teams that can win in different ways. Arizona can run you out of the gym, but they can also grind out a 62-60 win in a rock fight.
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The SEC Chaos Factor
Last year, the SEC was the story, sending a record number of teams to the dance. This year? It’s a bit of a mess, but a high-upside mess. Florida is the defending champ, and while they’ve taken some lumps, you can never count out Todd Golden in a tournament setting.
Vanderbilt is the surprise of the century. They’re 16-1 and sitting inside the Top 10. Can they actually win six games in three weeks? It feels unlikely, but they have the veteran leadership that usually thrives in March.
- Arizona (+550): The most complete team in the country.
- Michigan (+440): The highest ceiling if their shots are falling.
- UConn (+1000): Never, ever bet against Dan Hurley in March.
- Iowa State (+1200): The computer rankings love them, and their defense is a nightmare.
Why "Bracketology" is Changing Every Tuesday
We have to talk about Nebraska. It sounds fake, but the Cornhuskers are currently projected as a 1-seed by Mike DeCourcy. They are 16-0. They’ve beaten Illinois and Michigan State. In most years, a Nebraska run is a feel-good story that ends in the Round of 32. This year, they have the metrics of a legitimate contender. If you’re looking for a dark horse to actually win the whole thing, the Huskers are the "vibes" pick of 2026.
But here is the reality: the NCAA tournament is a variance machine. Duke is sitting there at 16-1, quietly top-5 in most metrics, just waiting for the spotlight to shift. Jon Scheyer has a roster full of future NBA talent that hasn't quite peaked yet. If you want to know who will win the NCAA tournament, keep a very close eye on the Blue Devils in February. If they start defending the perimeter better, their odds will plummet from +1200 to +600 overnight.
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The Stats That Actually Matter
You can ignore most of the hype and just look at three things. First, adjusted defensive efficiency. If you aren't in the top 20 by Selection Sunday, you aren't winning the title. Period. Second, veteran guard play. This is why teams like Purdue and Gonzaga remain dangerous despite having "down" years by their standards. Experience in the backcourt is the only thing that survives the pressure of the Second Round.
Finally, look at Quad 1 wins. This is why Arizona is currently the "real" number one regardless of what the AP poll says. They have six Quad 1 wins. Most of the other contenders have two or three. They are battle-tested in a way that most teams won't be until the Sweet 16.
The "UConn" Shadow
It’s almost annoying at this point, but UConn is still UConn. They are 17-1. They have the championship DNA. They play a style of ball that is specifically designed to exploit the weaknesses of "finesse" teams like Michigan. If the Huskies get a favorable draw in the East region, they are the most likely team to repeat.
Actionable Insights for March
If you're looking to place a bet or just win your office pool, here is how to narrow down the field for who will win the NCAA tournament this year:
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- Avoid the "Hot" Mid-Major: Miami (Ohio) is 18-0, but they haven't played a single Quad 1 game. They’ll be a popular upset pick, but they don't have the depth to win a title.
- Focus on the Big 12/Big Ten crossover: The winner is almost certainly coming from one of these two conferences. The nightly grind in these leagues is preparing Arizona, Iowa State, and Michigan for the physical toll of March.
- Watch the "Last Four In" teams for Elite Eight runs: Teams like Texas A&M and Ohio State are currently on the bubble but have the talent to wreck a bracket. They won't win the title, but they might beat the team you picked to win it.
- Wait for the "Injury Report" in late February: A single sprained ankle for a guy like Koa Peat changes the entire landscape of the tournament.
The most realistic path to a championship right now runs through Tucson or Ann Arbor. Arizona has the interior presence, and Michigan has the tactical advantage. But keep your eyes on Duke and UConn; they are the lurking giants that usually wake up once the calendar turns to March.
Current Betting Value: If you can find Iowa State at +1200 or better, take it. Their defensive metrics are too good to ignore, and they are the only team that has consistently bothered the elite offenses this season.
To stay ahead of the curve, monitor the NET rankings every Monday morning. Look specifically for teams that move into the top 10 in "Road Success," as that is the best indicator of how a team will handle the neutral-site pressure of the tournament.