Ohio isn't the swing state your parents talk about. It’s just not. Gone are the days when candidates lived in diners in Lima and Steubenville for six months straight, praying for a 1% bump. Today, the Buckeye State is wearing a very distinct shade of scarlet, and the upcoming 2026 cycle is looking like a high-stakes stress test for both parties.
If you want to know who will win Ohio in 2026, you have to look past the old "bellwether" myths. The reality is a mix of high-profile names, a brand-new congressional map, and a Republican party that has basically moved into the driver's seat and locked the doors. But—and there is always a "but" in politics—recent polls suggest the 2026 races for Governor and U.S. Senate are way closer than the 2024 blowout would suggest.
The Battle for the Governor’s Mansion
Governor Mike DeWine is packing his bags. He’s term-limited, leaving a massive power vacuum in Columbus. Enter Vivek Ramaswamy. After his 2024 presidential run, the biotech entrepreneur has pivoted hard toward his home state. He’s running with State Senate President Rob McColley, and he’s got the golden ticket: an endorsement from Donald Trump.
Honestly, the Republican primary felt like it was over before it started. Ramaswamy has been polling in the 70s against other potential GOP challengers like Heather Hill and Casey Putsch. He’s got the name ID. He’s got the money. He’s got the MAGA base in a headlock.
But then there's Amy Acton.
The former Ohio Department of Health Director, who became a household name during the early pandemic, is the Democratic frontrunner. She’s running with David Pepper, the former chair of the Ohio Democratic Party. For a while, people thought the GOP would walk away with this. However, an Emerson College poll from December 2025 showed Acton at 46% and Ramaswamy at 45%. That is a dead heat.
Why is it so close?
- The Gender Gap: Women in Ohio are breaking for Acton by nearly 20 points.
- The "DeWine Republican": There’s a slice of the GOP that liked DeWine’s moderate, institutional style and finds Ramaswamy’s "disruptor" brand a bit much.
- Name ID: Everyone in Ohio knows "Dr. Amy."
The Senate Special: Husted vs. Brown (Round 2?)
JD Vance is the Vice President now, and his old seat is up for grabs in a special election. Governor DeWine appointed Jon Husted—the former Lieutenant Governor—to fill the seat temporarily. Now, Husted has to defend it.
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His opponent? Sherrod Brown.
Yes, the same Sherrod Brown who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024. He’s back. Brown is betting that without a presidential race at the top of the ticket to pull Republican turnout to the moon, his "blue-collar populism" can win back the Mahoning Valley.
Husted isn't a pushover, though. He’s a veteran of Ohio politics who has won statewide multiple times. Current polling has Husted slightly up—about 49% to 46%. It’s a slugfest. Husted is leaning hard on infrastructure and jobs, while Brown is trying to recapture the independent voters who deserted the Democrats in '24.
The New Map: A 12-3 Divide?
You can’t talk about who will win Ohio without mentioning the new congressional maps. In October 2025, the Redistricting Commission actually agreed on a map. Rare, I know. This new map is expected to take the current 10-5 Republican-to-Democratic split and push it toward a 12-3 Republican advantage.
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The big loser here? Marcy Kaptur. Her 9th District in Toledo got a lot redder—by about 11 points. She’s the longest-serving woman in House history, and she’s already said she’s running again in 2026, but the math is brutal this time.
Over in Cincinnati, Greg Landsman is also looking at a tougher district. His seat shifted from leaning Democratic to leaning Republican. If the GOP has a good night in November 2026, these are the seats that will cement a "Red Ohio" for the next decade.
Why the Polls Might Be Lying
Polls in Ohio have been... tricky lately. In 2024, Trump won the state by 11 points. If you only looked at the polls a few months prior, you might have thought it was a 5-point race.
Republicans have a massive advantage with voters under 30 who didn't show up in 2024. According to Emerson's Spencer Kimball, these young non-voters actually identify more as Republicans. If they show up in 2026, the "tight" races between Acton and Ramaswamy might evaporate.
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But Democrats have a "slight breeze" at their backs. Independent voters nationally have been drifting away from the GOP over the last year. In a midterm-style election (the first one of the second Trump term), the party out of power usually has the momentum.
Actionable Strategy: What to Watch For
If you're trying to figure out where the wind is blowing, don't look at the national news. Look at these three things:
- The Suburbs of Columbus and Cincinnati: If Amy Acton can’t win Delaware County or the "collar" counties around Hamilton, she can't win the state. Period.
- Labor Endorsements: Keep an eye on the unions. The IUOE Local 18 recently flipped and endorsed Husted after years of supporting Brown. If the trades stay with the GOP, the Democrats' "Blue Wall" in the Mahoning Valley is gone for good.
- The May 5th Primary Turnout: Watch the raw numbers. If GOP primary turnout dwarfs Democratic turnout by 2-to-1, the general election in November is likely a foregone conclusion.
Ohio is currently a "Likely Republican" state according to the Cook Political Report, but the individual matchups for Governor and Senate are surprisingly competitive. It’s going to be an expensive, loud, and very long year for anyone living between Lake Erie and the Ohio River.
Track the filing deadline on February 4, 2026. Once the final list of candidates is locked in, the real spending begins. If you're a voter, check your registration status on the Ohio Secretary of State website now, especially with the new district lines shifting where you might be voting.