Wait. Stop. If you’re looking for a "safe" bet this weekend, you're in the wrong place. This is the Divisional Round. It’s where the pretenders get exposed and the No. 1 seeds finally have to step out from behind their bye-week curtains.
It’s January 17, 2026. The air is thin in Denver, and it's probably raining in Seattle. We’ve got four games on the docket that look more like heavyweight title fights than football matches. Honestly, predicting who will win NFL games this week is a nightmare because the parity in the league right now is actually insane. The Chiefs aren't even here! For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the AFC is wide open, and the Denver Broncos are sitting on the throne as the top seed.
But being the top seed doesn't mean you're safe. Ask any fan who watched the 49ers limp into the playoffs only to punch the defending champion Eagles in the mouth last week.
Saturday’s Double-Header: High Altitudes and Rainy Grudges
(6) Buffalo Bills at (1) Denver Broncos
Time: 4:30 PM ET | TV: CBS
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The Broncos are 14-3. They’ve been the most consistent team in the AFC all year, but they haven’t played a meaningful snap in two weeks. That's the danger. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills just scraped past the Jaguars in a 27-24 nail-biter. Buffalo is battle-tested.
Josh Allen is playing that brand of "hero ball" that either wins you a Super Bowl or gets your offensive coordinator fired. Against Jacksonville, he was the Bills' leading rusher. That’s a problem against a Denver defense that ranks 5th in the league. If Denver can keep Allen in the pocket, they win. But the Broncos’ offense has been efficient, not explosive.
The Verdict: I’m leaning toward the Broncos here, but only because of the thin air. Buffalo's defense looked gassed by the fourth quarter last week. If Denver plays ball control and keeps Allen on the sideline, they’ll squeeze out a win. Expect a close one, maybe 24-20.
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks
Time: 8:00 PM ET | TV: FOX
This is the big one. The rivalry. The "Legion of Boom 2.0" versus Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. These two just played in Week 18, and Seattle embarrassed them 13-3. But there's a massive asterisk there: San Francisco didn't have Trent Williams. He's back now.
However, the 49ers just lost George Kittle to a torn Achilles. That is devastating. Brock Purdy relied on Kittle as his safety valve during that gritty 23-19 win over the Eagles. On the other side, Sam Darnold—yes, that Sam Darnold—is 28-6 as a starter over the last two seasons. He’s listed as questionable with an oblique injury, but word is he’s playing.
Expert Insight: "The Seahawks' defense is only giving up 17.2 points per game. Without Kittle to stress the middle of the field, the 49ers are going to have to rely entirely on Christian McCaffrey against the best run defense in the NFC." — Local Seattle Analysis
The Verdict: Seattle Seahawks. Lumen Field is going to be deafening. Without Kittle, the 49ers' offense becomes one-dimensional. Seattle wins 24-13.
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Sunday: The New Guard vs. The Old Dynasty
(5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots
Time: 3:00 PM ET | TV: ABC/ESPN
New England is back in the divisional round with a 14-3 record. It feels like 2014 all over again, except it's not Brady. Their defense is ranked 3rd in the league. They just absolutely dismantled the Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card round.
But the Houston Texans are scary. They just put 30 points on the Steelers. C.J. Stroud is no longer a "young" quarterback; he’s an elite processor who doesn't care about Foxborough’s "mystique." This game is the classic "Unstoppable Force vs. Immovable Object."
Who will win NFL games this week often comes down to who makes the fewer mistakes. New England doesn't beat themselves. Houston sometimes does.
The Verdict: New England Patriots. The Patriots’ secondary is too disciplined. They’ll bait Stroud into one or two crucial mistakes. New England wins a defensive slugfest, 19-16.
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(5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Chicago Bears
Time: 6:30 PM ET | TV: NBC
Chicago is buzzing. They beat the Packers 31-27 last week in a game that probably took five years off every Bears fan's life. But now they face a Rams team that is arguably the hottest in the NFL.
The Rams are ranked #1 in offensive DVOA. Matthew Stafford is playing like he's 25 again, and Puka Nacua is still breaking records. Chicago's defense is 23rd in the league. That is a mismatch that should keep Bears fans up at night.
The Verdict: Los Angeles Rams. I know, the Bears are at home. Soldier Field in January is tough. But the Rams’ offense is too fast. They’re going to put up points, and I don't think Chicago can keep up in a shootout. Rams win 34-27.
What You Need to Watch For
If you’re betting or just trying to look smart at the sports bar, keep these three things in mind:
- The Rest vs. Rust Factor: Denver and Seattle haven't played since the first week of January. Historically, the bye week is a massive advantage, but a slow start in the first quarter can be fatal.
- Injuries to Stars: Keep an eye on Sam Darnold's oblique. If he can't rotate properly, that Seahawks offense becomes very limited. Also, watch the 49ers' linebacker corps—Fred Warner is out with an ankle injury, which is a massive hole in the middle of that defense.
- The Weather: Early forecasts for Chicago show wind gusts. That favors the Bears' run game over the Rams' high-flying passing attack.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
- Watch the Lines: The Seahawks are currently touchdown favorites (-7). That feels high for a divisional rivalry. If the line moves to 7.5, the "sharp" money is likely going to jump on the 49ers.
- Player Props: Look for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have a big day for Seattle. He’s averaged over 100 yards against the Niners this season and with their linebackers banged up, he’ll find space in the seams.
- Live Betting: If the Broncos start slow (which often happens after a bye), wait for the first quarter to end and look for a "buy low" opportunity on Denver's moneyline.
The Divisional Round is usually the best weekend of football all year. Don't overthink it. The favorites are favorites for a reason, but in a year where the Chiefs are watching from home, anything can happen.
Get your snacks ready. The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara goes through Denver and Seattle this Saturday.
Monitor the final injury reports two hours before kickoff. A late scratch for a guy like Trent Williams or Sam Darnold changes everything. If Darnold is out, flip your Seattle pick to the Niners immediately. Otherwise, stick with the home teams in the AFC and the hottest offense in the NFC.