Everyone thinks they have the bracket figured out by mid-January. You see the usual blue bloods hovering at the top of the AP Poll, the analysts on TV screaming about "quadrant one wins," and your buddy in the group chat insisting this is finally the year for a mid-major to crash the party.
But honestly? This season feels different.
The question of who will win ncaa tournament games in March is getting a lot harder to answer because the traditional power structure is basically in a blender. We’ve seen preseason favorites stumble and unranked teams suddenly look like world-beaters. If you’re looking at the betting lines or the NET rankings right now, you’re seeing a tug-of-war between high-octane offenses and the kind of "grind-it-out" defense that actually survives the second weekend of the tournament.
The Michigan Surge: From Preseason No. 7 to Betting Favorite
Let's talk about the Wolverines. Dusty May has this team playing at a level that frankly nobody expected this fast. Michigan didn't just win the Players Era Championship over Thanksgiving; they absolutely dismantled people.
They beat Auburn by 30. Then they turned around and crushed Gonzaga by 40.
That kind of dominance against top-tier competition is why they’ve climbed to +425 at Bet365, making them the current favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. They’ve got a cushion over everyone else right now, though a recent slip-up against Wisconsin proved they aren't invincible. Still, if you’re betting on who will win ncaa tournament honors, Michigan is the name at the top of the sheet for a reason. Their offense is efficient, they share the ball, and they don't seem to care who the "star" is on any given night.
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Arizona and the Big 12 Gauntlet
Arizona is the other big story. They’ve spent a massive chunk of the season sitting at No. 1 in the AP Poll. Tommy Lloyd has them running a system that is just exhausting to play against.
They went 13-0 in non-conference play.
Think about that. They played Florida, UConn, and Alabama—three of the toughest outs in the country—and won them all. But here’s the kicker: they’re in the Big 12 now. The road to the Final Four through the Big 12 is like walking through a minefield every Tuesday night. Between Iowa State (who has been nearly perfect) and a Houston team that refuses to let anyone score more than 50 points, Arizona’s "favorite" status is going to be tested every single week.
Can UConn Actually Three-Peat?
Dan Hurley is a maniac, and I mean that in the best way possible. After winning it all in 2023 and 2024, the Huskies took a "down" year by losing in the second round in 2025. But they’ve retooled.
The addition of Silas Demary Jr. through the transfer portal has been a godsend. Pair him with Solo Ball and the veteran leadership of Alex Karaban, and you have a recipe for another deep run. Their odds are sitting around +1000. It’s a bit of a "wait and see" situation because of some early-season injuries, but when they’re healthy, they look exactly like the team that dominated the sport for two straight years.
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The Freshman Factor and the Blue Devils
Then there’s Duke. It always comes back to Duke, doesn't it?
Jon Scheyer landed the prize of the recruiting world in Cameron Boozer. The kid is 18 going on 30. He’s directing traffic, rebounding like a pro, and hasn't folded under the "Cameron Indoor" pressure. Duke is 16-1 as of mid-January, with their only loss being a one-point heartbreaker to Texas Tech at Madison Square Garden.
- The Pros: They have more raw talent than anyone else.
- The Cons: They’re young. Really young.
- The Reality: In the tournament, talent usually wins out in the first two rounds, but veteran guard play wins the Final Four. Whether Cayden Boozer and the backcourt can handle a 1-3-1 zone in the Elite Eight is the $10 million question.
The "Defense Wins Titles" Crowd
You can’t talk about who will win ncaa tournament titles without mentioning Houston. Kelvin Sampson’s teams are basically a root canal in sneakers. They lost LJ Cryer, which hurt their scoring, but they returned three starters from a team that went to the national title game last year.
Emanual Sharp is still there. Joseph Tugler is still the best defensive "stopper" in the country. They might not be the "sexy" pick to win it all, but they are the team that nobody wants to see in their region. They currently have +1200 odds, which feels like a steal given their track record of making the second weekend every single year.
Surprises and Bracket Busters
Keep an eye on Nebraska. No, seriously. They are 17-0.
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The Cornhuskers are the last undefeated team standing alongside Arizona and, surprisingly, Miami (Ohio). While the RedHawks probably won't survive the first weekend, Nebraska is legit. They beat Michigan State in a 58-56 rock fight that proved they can win when the shots aren't falling.
Vanderbilt is another one. They’re a projected 2-seed right now. If you had "Vanderbilt as a national title contender" on your 2026 bingo card, you’re a liar. But under the right coaching and a heavy influx of portal talent, the Commodores are suddenly a top-10 team in the NET rankings.
How to Actually Predict the Winner
If you're trying to figure out who will win ncaa tournament brackets this year, stop looking at the AP Poll. It’s a beauty contest. Look at the KenPom and NET metrics instead.
To win it all, a team almost always needs to be in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. Right now, Michigan, Arizona, and Duke are the only ones consistently hitting those marks. Purdue is close, but they rely so heavily on Braden Smith that one bad shooting night from him could end their season in the Sweet Sixteen again.
Actionable Insights for Your Bracket:
- Watch the Big 12 Standings: The team that wins the Big 12 regular season (Arizona, Iowa State, or Houston) is almost guaranteed a 1-seed and a path to the Final Four.
- Ignore the "Undefeated" Mid-Majors: Teams like Miami (Ohio) have great records but haven't played a single ranked opponent. They are prime candidates for an early exit.
- The "Hurley Rule": Never bet against UConn in a neutral-site game when they are healthy. Their +1000 odds are the best value on the board right now.
- Freshman Limits: Duke is spectacular, but history shows that teams led by freshmen often hit a wall in the Elite Eight. Look for a team with at least two senior starters.
The road to Indianapolis officially starts in March, but the champion is being built right now in these conference grinds. Whether it's the offensive fireworks of Michigan or the suffocating defense of Houston, the 2026 tournament is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in years.
Check the injury reports for UConn's backcourt and see if Arizona can survive their late-January road trip to BYU and West Virginia. Those results will tell you more about who will win ncaa tournament glory than any preseason magazine ever could.