Look, everyone wants to act like they have a crystal ball the second the calendar turns to January. We see the same blue bloods at the top of the AP Poll, the same talking heads shouting about "momentum," and the same betting lines shifting every time a freshman hits a contested three. But if you're actually trying to figure out who will win NCAA titles this year, you have to stop looking at the logo on the jersey and start looking at the math. And honestly, the math right now is pointing toward a few teams that might surprise you.
It's January 2026. The "new" Big Ten is a gauntlet. The ACC is cannibalizing itself. Meanwhile, a team like Michigan—who wasn't even in the top five when the season tipped off—has basically turned into a buzzsaw.
The Wolverines and the Rise of the New Favorites
For a while, the conversation was all about Purdue and Houston. It made sense. Continuity is king in college hoops these days, and those programs have it in spades. But then Michigan started winning. And they didn't just win; they started deleting people. We're talking about 40-point blowouts against Gonzaga and 30-point wins over Auburn.
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Currently, the Wolverines are sitting at +390 to win it all. That is a massive jump from their preseason +475. They moved from No. 7 in the country all the way to a dominant No. 2, and the NET rankings (the only metric the selection committee actually cares about) has them at the very top.
But wait. Before you go putting your mortgage on a team in Ann Arbor, you've gotta look at Arizona.
Arizona is 14-0. They’re ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll for a reason. Koa Peat is playing like a man possessed, averaging nearly 15 points a game, while Tobe Awaka is vacuuming up 10 rebounds every night. They just took down UConn and Alabama in the same stretch. If you’re asking who will win NCAA hardware, Arizona has the most "pro-ready" roster in the building. Their odds moved from +1300 to +700 in a month. That’s not a nudge; that’s a landslide.
Why Continuity is Beating the Transfer Portal
There’s this obsession with the portal. Coaches think they can just buy a championship in May. But look at Purdue. They’re sitting at +1200, and while they aren't the odds-on favorite anymore, they have Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. These guys have played together forever.
When the lights get bright in March, you don't want a team of strangers. You want a team that knows exactly where the help defense is coming from without looking. That’s why Houston stays in the mix. Kelvin Sampson’s defense is a nightmare. They don't just beat you; they make you hate playing basketball. They’re a "system" team, and in a single-elimination tournament, systems usually beat raw talent.
The "Blue Blood" Problem
Is Duke actually good enough? That’s the question every year, right? They’ve got the Boozer twins—Cameron and Cayden—and the recruiting class is literally the best in the nation. But they’re sitting at +1200.
The problem with Duke is the same problem John Calipari used to have at Kentucky: youth. Freshmen are great in November. They’re usually tired by March. If Duke is going to be the answer to who will win NCAA championships in 2026, those freshmen have to grow up in the next six weeks. History says that’s a coin flip.
And speaking of Kentucky, they’re basically the definition of a "stock down" team right now. They lost to Alabama by 15. They're struggling to find an identity. If you're looking for a sleeper, look at Nebraska. Yes, Nebraska. They just jumped to a projected No. 1 seed in some brackets. That sounds fake, but they’ve been incredibly efficient on both ends of the floor.
Numbers You Actually Need to Know
If you want to sound smart at the sports bar, stop talking about "heart" and start talking about these specific stats.
- Michigan's Margin: They aren't just winning; they have one of the highest efficiency margins in the country.
- Arizona's Glass Dominance: Tobe Awaka is 3rd in the nation in rebounding percentage. You can't win if you don't get the ball back.
- Purdue's Location: The Final Four is a short drive from West Lafayette this year. Home-court advantage in the final rounds is a real thing that the betting markets are starting to bake into the price.
Who is the Real Sleeper?
If you want a team that nobody is talking about yet, keep an eye on Iowa State. They’re +1000 right now, tied with UConn. They have a way of dragging teams into the mud and winning ugly.
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In the tournament, "winning ugly" is a superpower. You’re going to have a night where your shots don't fall. If your entire identity is based on hitting 40% of your threes (looking at you, BYU), you’re going to get bounced in the Round of 32 by a team that plays better defense.
UConn is the other weird one. They’re the defending-ish powerhouse, and everyone expects them to just "be there." But they’ve looked mortal lately. They’re +1000 for a reason. They have the pedigree, but do they have the hunger? Dan Hurley usually finds a way to manufacture it, but it feels harder this year.
Actionable Strategy for March
Stop looking at the preseason rankings. They are officially garbage. Instead, look at the NET rankings and the KenPom adjusted efficiency. Teams that rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency are the only ones that actually win titles.
Right now, that list is short: Michigan, Arizona, Houston, and Purdue.
If you're trying to figure out who will win NCAA championships, your best bet is to wait until the end of January. Watch how these teams handle true road games in conference play. A team that can win in a hostile environment like Lawrence or East Lansing is a team that can win in a neutral-site dome in April.
Forget the Cinderella stories for a second. Everyone loves a 12-seed, but 12-seeds don't cut down the nets. If you're looking for the winner, look at the teams that can win when their best player is having an off night. That's Michigan and Arizona. Everyone else is just playing for second place right now.
Keep an eye on the injury reports for the big men. In 2026, the game has moved outside, but you still need a rim protector to survive the second weekend. If Arizona stays healthy, they are the team to beat. If Michigan keeps shooting 50% from the floor as a team, nobody is touching them.
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Final thought: Don't ignore Vanderbilt. They’ve quietly moved into the top 10 of the NET. It sounds crazy, but this is the year of the weird.
Monitor the "Big Three" metrics: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, Effective Field Goal Percentage Defense, and Turnover Margin. The team that leads the intersection of those three by Valentine's Day is your champion. Historically, 90% of winners fit this statistical profile four weeks before the tournament begins. Focus on Michigan's consistency in the Big Ten—if they sweep their next three road games, the +390 odds will vanish, and they'll become the heavy favorite at nearly even money. Get in now while there's still value on the board.