The smoke hasn’t turned white yet. But honestly, in the halls of the Vatican and the quiet cafes surrounding St. Peter’s Square, the conversation is already deafening. Speculating on who will most likely be the next pope is a centuries-old Roman pastime, yet right now, it feels different. We are in a transitional era. Pope Francis has spent over a decade reshaping the College of Cardinals, packing it with men from the "peripheries"—places like Tonga, Mongolia, and the Amazon—rather than the traditional European power centers.
He basically flipped the script.
Now, the big question is whether the cardinals will choose a "Francis II" to double down on his reforms or pivot back toward a more traditional, "safe hands" approach. Predicting a conclave is notoriously difficult. There’s an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave as pope leaves as a cardinal." Essentially, the frontrunners often crash and burn once the doors are locked. But even with that unpredictability, a few names are consistently rising to the top of the pile.
The Continuity Candidates: Carrying the Torch
If the voting cardinals want to ensure that Francis’s focus on the poor, the environment, and a more decentralized church continues, they’ll look at his closest allies.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi is the name you’ll hear most often in this category. He’s the Archbishop of Bologna and the head of the Italian Bishops' Conference. Zuppi is kinda the "street priest" version of a high-ranking prelate. He’s deeply connected to the Community of Sant’Egidio, a lay movement famous for its work with the poor and international peace mediation. He’s been Francis’s point man for delicate missions, including peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine. He has that "smell of the sheep" Francis loves, and he’s Italian, which might appeal to those who want the papacy back in Rome’s backyard after decades of "foreign" popes.
Then there is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. People often call him the "Asian Francis." He’s charismatic, social-media savvy, and has a real heart for migrants and the marginalized. Tagle was the Archbishop of Manila before Francis brought him to Rome to lead the Dicastery for Evangelization. He’s got the global appeal, but some wonder if he’s too much like Francis. Sometimes, the Pendulum Effect kicks in—after a long, revolutionary papacy, the electors might want someone who slows things down a bit.
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The Diplomat: Pietro Parolin
If you’re looking for a "safe" choice, Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the guy. As the Vatican Secretary of State, he is essentially the Prime Minister of the Holy See. He’s a career diplomat. He’s quiet, cautious, and incredibly experienced in navigating the thorny world of global politics.
- Nationality: Italian
- Key Strength: Diplomatic heavy-hitter
- The Vibe: Stability and institutional knowledge
Parolin represents a "middle way." He isn't a firebrand liberal, but he’s also not a hardline traditionalist. He knows where all the bodies are buried in the Roman Curia (the Vatican’s bureaucracy). If the cardinals are exhausted by the "chaos" that critics sometimes associate with Francis’s spontaneous style, Parolin offers a return to order and decorum.
The "Great Pivot" toward Africa and the Global South
Numbers don't lie. The Church is shrinking in Europe and North America, but it is exploding in Africa and parts of Asia. It makes logical sense that the next pope could come from the continent where the pews are actually full.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo is a massive figure right now. He’s the President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM). He made waves recently by leading the African bishops in a unified "no" to the Vatican’s move to allow blessings for same-sex couples, arguing it wouldn't work in their cultural context. This showed he has the spine to stand up to Rome while still remaining a respected member of Francis’s inner circle (he sits on the Council of Cardinals).
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana is another veteran. He’s been in Rome for years and led the Vatican’s work on climate change and social justice. He’s a bridge-builder. He understands the West but carries the perspective of the Global South.
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The Conservative Alternatives
Not everyone is happy with the current direction of the Church. There is a vocal minority of cardinals who believe the Church has become too "woke" or too vague on doctrine. They want a "Doctor of the Faith."
Cardinal Péter Erdő from Hungary is the intellectual heavyweight here. He’s a canon lawyer and a strict traditionalist when it comes to Church law. He’s been the Archbishop of Budapest for a long time and is highly respected for his brain. He wouldn’t be a "culture warrior" like some American bishops, but he would definitely steer the ship back toward more traditional liturgical and doctrinal waters.
How the Vote Actually Happens (The Logistics)
When the time comes, 130-ish cardinals (those under the age of 80) will be locked inside the Sistine Chapel. No phones. No internet. No newspapers. They sleep in a special hotel called the Domus Sanctae Marthae and commute to the chapel every day.
The voting process is repetitive.
Two votes in the morning.
Two votes in the afternoon.
They need a two-thirds majority to win. After each round, they burn the ballots. If no one is elected, they add a chemical to make the smoke black. If someone wins and accepts, they use a different chemical to make the smoke white. It’s high drama, basically the world’s oldest reality TV show, but with much higher stakes.
Why "Who Will Most Likely Be the Next Pope" is a Moving Target
Here’s the thing: the College of Cardinals is now more diverse than it has ever been in 2,000 years. Many of these men don’t actually know each other very well. In the old days, they all lived in Rome or Europe. Now, you have a cardinal from the Amazon meeting a cardinal from Luxembourg for the first time at the conclave.
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This makes the "General Congregations"—the meetings held before the actual voting—crucial. This is where they size each other up. They talk about the problems of the Church: the priest shortage, the financial scandals, and the decline of faith in the West. Often, a candidate who wasn't even on the radar starts to gain momentum because they gave a great speech during these meetings.
Factors that will decide the 2026 Conclave:
- Age: Cardinals often look for a "transitional" pope (older) after a long papacy, or a "long-term" pope (younger) if they want a stable era.
- Language: The Pope is the Bishop of Rome. He has to speak Italian. Period. If a candidate can't handle an Italian press conference, they’re usually out.
- The Curia: Does the candidate want to clean up the Vatican’s messy bureaucracy, or are they an outsider who will just get eaten alive by it?
Actionable Insights for Following the Papal Succession
If you want to track this like an expert, don’t just look at the betting odds. Those are often wrong (they had Cardinal Scola as the favorite in 2013, and he didn't even come close). Instead, keep an eye on these specific developments:
- Watch the "Red Hats": Look at who Pope Francis elevates to Cardinal in his next consistory. Every new appointment is a hint at the "voting bloc" he’s building.
- Monitor the Synod on Synodality: This is Francis’s big project. How potential candidates like Zuppi or Tagle handle the fallout from this meeting will tell you everything about their "papabile" status.
- Track the Travels: When a cardinal like Zuppi is sent to Washington, Beijing, or Moscow, it’s a test run. The Vatican is seeing if they have the diplomatic chops to lead the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics.
The papacy isn't just a religious role; it's a geopolitical powerhouse. Whether the next man to step onto the balcony of St. Peter's is a diplomat like Parolin, a reformer like Zuppi, or a traditionalist like Erdő, his election will shift the cultural needle for decades. Keep your eyes on the horizon—and the chimney.
To stay ahead, follow the official Vatican News outlet for announcements on cardinal appointments and check the "L'Osservatore Romano" for shifts in theological tone among the frontrunners. Understanding the internal politics of the College of Cardinals is the only way to truly gauge who will most likely be the next pope.