If you’re sitting there wondering who will be the next president of the united states, you’re definitely not alone. It’s January 2026. The midterms are looming, and yet everyone is already obsessing over 2028. It’s kinda wild how early the cycle starts now. Honestly, we haven't even finished the first half of the current term, but the "shadow campaign" is in full swing.
You’ve got governors making "accidental" trips to New Hampshire. You’ve got a Vice President who is basically the heir apparent but still has to look over his shoulder. It’s a messy, fascinating game of political musical chairs. People want a name. They want a prediction they can take to the bank. But politics is never that clean.
The Republican Frontrunner: Is It JD Vance’s to Lose?
Right now, if you look at the GOP side, Vice President JD Vance is the elephant in the room. Literally. In a YouGov poll from late 2025, about 44% of Republicans named him as their "ideal" 2028 nominee. That’s a massive lead. He’s sitting on a net favorability of +64 with the base. When people ask who will be the next president of the united states, his name is usually the first one out of a Republican’s mouth.
But being the favorite this early is a double-edged sword.
Vance has been careful. He told Fox News in November 2025 that he’s focused on the midterms, but he also admitted he’s thought about a White House bid. He’s basically the "MAGA" torchbearer. However, he isn't the only one in the mix. You’ve got Marco Rubio, currently the Secretary of State, who still pulls decent numbers. Then there’s Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and even Donald Trump Jr. hovering in the background.
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Some folks are even floating the idea of a third term for the current president, despite the 22nd Amendment. It’s a long shot that would require a constitutional overhaul, but the "Third Term Project" is already talking about it at CPAC. It adds a layer of weirdness to the whole "who’s next" conversation.
The Democratic Free-for-All
On the other side of the aisle, it’s a lot more crowded. It’s basically a battle of the "frenemies."
California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris are the two biggest names. They’ve been parallel-tracking their careers since their San Francisco days. Newsom has been acting as the "resistor-in-chief," constantly trolling the current administration on social media. It's working. His approval among Democrats jumped 15 points recently after he started pushing "Prop 50" in California to block federal agendas.
Newsom and Harris are neck-and-neck in the polls. About 55% of Democrats say they’d consider Newsom, and 54% say the same for Harris. But Harris has made it clear: "I am not done." She told the BBC in London that service is in her bones. She’s launching a super PAC called "Fight for the People."
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But don't count out the "Tier 2" candidates:
- Josh Shapiro: The Pennsylvania Governor is playing a very smart game. He just announced his reelection bid for 2026, but he’s already popping up at the White House to talk about electricity prices. He’s positioning himself as the guy who can talk to everyone.
- Pete Buttigieg: He’s actually leading some early New Hampshire primary polls. People like him. He’s got an 81% favorability rating among likely Democratic primary voters there.
- JB Pritzker: The Illinois Governor is the money man. He’s got a massive leadership PAC and has been handing out cash to fellow Democrats like candy. In politics, that buys a lot of friends.
The Swing State Reality Check
We can talk about personalities all day, but the map is what actually decides who will be the next president of the united states. The Rust Belt is still the kingmaker. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If a candidate can't speak to a factory worker in Erie or a suburban mom in Grand Rapids, they’re toasted.
Lately, we’ve seen traditional Democratic strongholds like New Jersey and Minnesota start to look like swing states. On the flip side, Florida and Ohio—once the ultimate prizes—seem to have gone "solid red." This shift changes who the parties might nominate. A Democrat might look at Josh Shapiro and think, "He can win Pennsylvania, let's go with him." A Republican might look at Vance and see his appeal in the Midwest as the ultimate weapon.
Why Early Polls Are Usually Wrong
History is littered with "sure thing" candidates who crashed and burned before the first primary. Remember when everyone thought Rudy Giuliani or Jeb Bush was a lock? Yeah, exactly.
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What really matters in 2026 isn't a poll; it's the 2026 midterms. If the GOP crushes it, Vance looks like a genius. If Democrats stage a comeback, Newsom and Harris will be fighting for the credit. Also, watch the economy. If inflation stays weird or energy prices spike, the incumbent party—regardless of who they run—will be swimming against a very strong tide.
What You Should Watch Next
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the 2028 race, don't just look at the national headlines. Look at the small stuff.
First, track the fundraising. Follow the "leadership PACs." When a governor like Pritzker or Newsom starts spending money in Iowa or South Carolina, that’s not just "helping the party." That’s building a ground game.
Second, watch the 2026 gubernatorial races. If Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania by a landslide, his stock goes through the roof. If Gavin Newsom’s chosen successor in California struggles, it might look like a rejection of his brand.
Finally, pay attention to the legislative battles. Watch who is leading the charge on high-profile issues like AI regulation or energy costs. These are the "audition" tapes for the 2028 debates. The person who can claim a real "win" for the average voter—not just a win for their party—will have a massive advantage when the primary season finally kicks off for real.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the FEC filings for "Leadership PACs" of Newsom, Pritzker, and Harris to see where their money is actually going.
- Monitor the 2026 New Hampshire and South Carolina "dinner circuits"—if a candidate shows up to speak at a local party fundraiser there, they are definitely running.
- Keep an eye on the "PJM price cap" battle led by Shapiro; it's a test case for how a Democrat can use "cost of living" issues to appeal to moderates.