Honestly, it feels a little crazy to even be talking about the 2028 election while the current administration is still getting its desk chairs adjusted. But if you’ve spent any time in DC or followed the betting markets lately, you know the "shadow campaign" is already in full swing. Everyone wants to know who will be the next president of America, and while we don't have a crystal ball, the chess pieces are moving in ways that tell a very specific story.
Politics moves fast. One minute you're a governor with a "Blue Wall" to protect, and the next, you're the face of a national movement.
Right now, the 2028 cycle looks like it’s going to be a generational clash. On one side, you have the MAGA heirs trying to keep the momentum going. On the other, a Democratic party that is basically reinventing itself in real-time. We aren't just looking at names; we’re looking at two completely different visions for what the country should look like in the 2030s.
The Republican Lineup: The Vance Factor and the MAGA Legacy
If the election were held tomorrow, JD Vance would likely be the guy to beat on the GOP side. It's not just that he's the Vice President; it's that he has successfully positioned himself as the intellectual engine of the "America First" movement.
Recent polling from YouGov and Saint Anselm College (late 2025) shows Vance holding a massive lead among Republican primary voters. We’re talking over 50% support in some snapshots. That’s "incumbent-level" dominance.
But it isn't a total cakewalk. Marco Rubio, currently serving as Secretary of State, is the wild card. While Rubio has publicly said he’d back Vance if he runs, politics is a game of ego and opportunity. Rubio still has a loyal base of traditional conservatives who might find Vance’s "New Right" economics a bit too radical.
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Then there’s the Florida problem. Ron DeSantis is still there. He’s term-limited as governor, which means he’ll be looking for a job in 2027. While his 2024 run was, let’s be real, a bit of a disaster, he’s been working overtime to rebuild his image by leaning into immigration and border security.
Don’t ignore the outsiders, either:
- Donald Trump Jr.: He consistently polls in the double digits. He has the name, the social media following, and the trust of the base.
- Tulsi Gabbard: Her move into the GOP fold has been fascinating. As Director of National Intelligence, she’s building a resume that appeals to the "anti-interventionist" crowd.
- Vivek Ramaswamy: He’s running for Governor of Ohio in 2026, which is clearly a move to build executive experience for a future White House bid.
The Democratic Civil War: Governors vs. The Beltway
On the Democratic side, things are much messier. There is no clear heir apparent. Kamala Harris is still the most recognizable name, but her favorability ratings have been a rollercoaster. If you look at the September 2025 Yahoo/YouGov data, she’s neck-and-neck with California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Newsom is basically the "Main Character" of the Democratic party right now. He’s got the hair, the money, and a PAC (Campaign for Democracy) that has already raised over $100 million. He’s been touring the country, picking fights with Republican governors, and acting like a candidate in everything but name.
But there’s a growing "Anyone But California" sentiment in the Midwest.
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This is where Josh Shapiro comes in. The Pennsylvania Governor is the guy the DNC "smart set" is obsessed with. Why? Because he wins big in a state Democrats must win. He’s 52, he’s moderate-coded, and he’s shown he can talk to rural voters without sounding like he’s lecturing them.
The Progressive Push
You can't talk about who will be the next president of America without mentioning the left wing of the party. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) has been much more active on the national stage, often appearing alongside Bernie Sanders. She polls surprisingly well in early primary states like New Hampshire.
The question for AOC is whether she wants to be the "kingmaker" or the "king." Or queen, obviously.
The Dark Horses
- Pete Buttigieg: He’s still the most talented communicator in the party. If he can bridge the gap with Black voters—a demographic he struggled with in 2020—he’s a top-tier threat.
- Gretchen Whitmer: "Big Gretch" has a massive profile in Michigan. If Democrats decide they want a "Midwestern Mom" vibe to counter the MAGA energy, she’s the obvious choice.
- JB Pritzker: The Illinois Governor has more money than almost everyone else combined. In a long, expensive primary, that matters.
The Issues That Will Actually Decide This
We can talk about personalities all day, but the "Next President" will be the person who owns the narrative on three specific things:
The Economy and the "Cost of Living" Crisis. People are tired of hearing that the GDP is up if they can't afford eggs. The candidate who explains how they’ll lower housing costs wins. Period.
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The Border and Immigration. This has shifted from a "red state" issue to a national one. Even Democratic mayors in New York and Chicago are demanding federal action.
Generational Change. By 2028, the country will be itching for someone who wasn't born in the 1940s or 50s. Whether it's Vance (born 1984) or Shapiro (born 1973), the "youth" factor is going to be a massive part of the branding.
So, Who Actually Wins?
If you want the expert take, keep your eyes on the 2026 midterms. That’s the real "pre-season." If Newsom’s candidates win, he’s the frontrunner. If Shapiro helps hold Pennsylvania for Democrats, he’s the guy. On the GOP side, if Vance is the primary surrogate for winning candidates, the nomination is his to lose.
The path to the White House currently runs through three states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Whoever picks a VP from one of those states or demonstrates they can win a "lunch bucket" voter in Scranton or Detroit will be the one taking the oath of office in January 2029.
Next Steps for the Politically Curious:
- Track the PACs: Watch the "Campaign for Democracy" (Newsom) and "Turning Point Action" (Vance) filings. Money doesn't lie.
- Monitor the 2026 Midterms: Look at which national figures are being invited to campaign in swing districts.
- Watch the Governor Races: Specifically in Ohio and Florida, as these will dictate the "bench" for both parties heading into the primary season.
The 2028 race is already happening. You just have to know where to look.