When we talk about who will be the next pope after Francis, the conversation usually sounds like a mix of political polling and sports betting. People love a good horse race. But the truth is, the Catholic Church isn't a democracy, and the "campaigning" happens in hushed hallways and private dinners in Rome.
As of early 2026, the landscape has shifted dramatically. Following the passing of Pope Francis in April 2025, the world watched as white smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel on May 8, 2025. The man who emerged on the balcony—the first American pope in history—was Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV.
If you’re looking at current "favorites," you’re actually looking at the leaders shaping the next transition, whenever that may be.
The man who is the next pope after Francis: Pope Leo XIV
Honestly, the election of Robert Prevost caught a lot of people off guard. For years, the smart money was on names like Pietro Parolin or Matteo Zuppi. Prevost, a Chicago-born Augustinian who spent decades in Peru, was the "outside insider." He knew the Vatican bureaucracy because he ran the Dicastery for Bishops, but he had the "smell of the sheep" from his years in the missions.
His first year has been a whirlwind. Just this month, in January 2026, Leo XIV convened an extraordinary consistory. He basically told the world’s cardinals, "I’m here to listen." That’s a big deal. Francis was often criticized for a "go-it-alone" style. Leo is trying to fix that. He’s already making waves by focusing on the implementation of Vatican II and tackling the abuse crisis with a renewed, almost aggressive transparency.
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Why the "favorites" didn't make it
It’s a classic Vatican saying: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal."
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin: The Vatican Secretary of State was the ultimate continuity candidate. He’s a master diplomat. But many cardinals wanted a break from the "bureaucrat" vibe. They wanted a pastor.
- Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: Often called the "Asian Francis," Tagle was a huge favorite. He’s charismatic and social media savvy. Some think he was just too young, and the College of Cardinals wasn't ready for a 30-year papacy.
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: The "street priest" from Bologna. He’s deeply loved by the progressive wing, but his ties to the Sant'Egidio community made some conservative voters nervous about "shadow government" influence.
The new "Papabili": Who are the names to watch now?
Even though we have a new Pope, the Vatican never stops looking at the horizon. The College of Cardinals is now a very different group than it was ten years ago. It’s more international, less European, and frankly, more unpredictable.
If we look at the heavy hitters in the 2026 consistories, a few names stand out as potential future leaders—the people who will eventually be the next pope after Francis’s successor.
The Bridge Builders
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa is a name you’ll hear constantly. He’s the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Think about that job for a second. He has to navigate the most volatile religious landscape on earth daily. He’s Italian, which satisfies the traditionalists, but his experience is entirely global. He’s shown incredible guts during the recent conflicts in the Middle East, even offering himself in exchange for hostages at one point. That kind of moral authority carries weight in a conclave.
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Then there's Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline of Marseille. He’s been a close ally to the new Pope. Aveline is a theology powerhouse who understands the "Mediterranean" identity of the Church—meaning he bridges the gap between Europe and North Africa.
The Conservative Voices
Don't think the traditionalist wing has disappeared. Cardinal Péter Erdő from Hungary remains a massive figure. He’s a canon law expert. If the Church feels like it's drifting too far into "synodality" (Vatican-speak for talking a lot), Erdő is the guy people look to for structure and law.
What the conclave of 2025 taught us
The election of Leo XIV proved that the "superpower" status of the U.S. is no longer a dealbreaker for a pope. For decades, people said an American could never be pope because it would look like the Church was an arm of Washington. That's over. The cardinals cared more about Prevost's work in Peru and his ability to manage the Vatican’s "human resources" department.
The Church is also leaning into its growth in the Global South. While the Pope is American, the "power players" in the room are now from Kinshasa, Manila, and Seoul. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Congo is a powerhouse. He’s outspoken, conservative on doctrine, but radical on social justice. He’s the future.
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What to look for next
If you want to track the future of the papacy, stop looking at betting odds. Watch the appointments.
Pope Leo XIV just finished his first year by closing the Jubilee of Hope. He’s now starting to name his own team. Every time he chooses a new head for a Vatican department, he is effectively choosing the people who will influence the next election.
Actionable insights for following Vatican news:
- Ignore the "favorites" lists from secular news: They usually just pick the most famous people. Look at the Secretaries and Prefects of Vatican departments.
- Follow the "Synod" reports: These documents tell you what the bishops actually care about. If they are talking about "listening," look for pastoral candidates. If they are talking about "confusion," look for canon lawyers.
- Watch the travel schedule: Popes use trips to signal their priorities. Leo XIV’s rumored 2026 trip to Algeria is a massive signal of his focus on interreligious dialogue.
The question of who will be the next pope after Francis has been answered by the election of Leo XIV, but the cycle of the Vatican is eternal. The Church moves in centuries, not four-year terms.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the upcoming consistories where Leo XIV will name his first batch of new cardinals. Those names will be the true "papabili" of the next decade. Follow the official Vatican News or the National Catholic Reporter for deep-dives into these biographies.