White smoke. It’s the only signal the world really waits for when a papacy ends. But honestly, by the time that plume drifts over St. Peter’s Square, the "who" part has usually been hashed out in quiet, marble-floored hallways for months. Maybe even years. Right now, everyone is asking: who is gonna be the new pope?
It’s a heavy question. It’s also a bit of a trick. There is an old Roman saying that usually proves true: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal." Basically, if you’re the media’s favorite, you’re probably toast. But that doesn't stop the speculation, and in 2026, the stakes for the Catholic Church feel massive.
The "Asian Francis" and the Shift to the Global South
If you’re looking at where the church is actually growing, you have to look at Asia and Africa. That’s why Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines is the name on everyone’s lips. People call him the "Asian Francis." He’s got that same easy laugh, but don't let the smile fool you. He’s a heavyweight.
Tagle has spent years running the Vatican’s evangelization office. He knows the bureaucracy. More importantly, he represents a church that isn't focused on Europe. If the cardinals want to double down on Francis’s vision—mercy, climate change, the poor—Tagle is the guy.
But there’s a catch. He’s 68. In Vatican years, that’s almost young. Some cardinals might prefer an older "transitional" pope who won't hold the keys for thirty years.
The Diplomat: Pietro Parolin
Then there’s the "insider’s insider." Cardinal Pietro Parolin. He’s been the Secretary of State—basically the Prime Minister of the Vatican—since 2013. He is Italian, and some people really want the papacy to return to Italy after decades of "foreign" popes.
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Parolin is a master diplomat. He deals with China, he deals with the UN, he deals with messy internal finances. If the College of Cardinals feels like the Church has become too chaotic or polarized, they might pick Parolin to steady the ship. He’s a moderate. He’s safe.
Is he too safe? Maybe. He lacks the "rockstar" charisma of a John Paul II or the populist touch of Francis. He's the guy who reads the fine print.
The Wildcards from Africa and Hungary
Wait, what about Africa? Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo is a massive figure. He represents a continent where the pews are actually full. He’s been outspoken on social justice but is often more traditional on doctrinal issues than the European progressives.
And then you have Cardinal Péter Erdő from Hungary. He’s the favorite for the conservatives who think the Church has drifted too far left. He’s a world-class canon lawyer. If the conclave decides they need a return to "order" and traditional liturgy, Erdő is the frontrunner.
How the Choice Actually Happens
It’s not a campaign. There are no posters. No TV ads.
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The 120-ish cardinal electors (the guys under 80) get locked in the Sistine Chapel. They can’t talk to the outside world. No phones. They literally take an oath of secrecy. They vote, they burn the ballots, and if there’s no 2/3 majority, they add chemicals to make the smoke black.
The real work happens during the "General Congregations." These are the meetings before the doors lock. This is where cardinals size each other up. They talk about the "state of the Church."
They look for specific things:
- Language skills: You gotta speak Italian and English, at the bare minimum.
- Health: No one wants another long, drawn-out decline if they can help it.
- The "Vibe": Does this guy understand the "peripheries" or is he just a Roman bureaucrat?
What Most People Get Wrong
Most people think it’s just a "Liberal vs. Conservative" fight. It’s way more complicated than that. A cardinal might be very liberal on helping migrants but super conservative on who can be a priest.
Geography matters too. A Latin American cardinal might not want another European. An American cardinal—like Cardinal Robert Prevost (who actually has a decent shot as a dark horse)—has to deal with the fact that many Europeans are wary of American influence.
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Why the "Who" Matters to You
You don't have to be Catholic to care about who is gonna be the new pope. The Pope is the only leader who has "soft power" in almost every country on Earth. He influences how billions of people think about climate change, war in the Middle East, and the ethics of AI.
When the new guy steps onto that balcony, he isn't just a religious leader. He’s a geopolitical player.
Actionable Next Steps for Tracking the Conclave
To stay ahead of the curve and understand the real shifts in the Vatican, keep an eye on these specific indicators:
- Monitor the "Consistories": Watch who the Pope names as new cardinals. These are the people who will vote for the next guy. If he picks more men from the Global South, the odds for someone like Tagle or Ambongo go up.
- Follow the "Vaticanisti": These are the specialized journalists (like those at Crux or The Tablet) who spend their lives in Rome. They hear the whispers that don't make the mainstream news.
- Check the "Papabile" Lists Periodically: The list of candidates changes. A cardinal who makes a big, brave speech at a Synod can suddenly become a favorite overnight.
- Look Beyond the Labels: Instead of "Left vs. Right," categorize candidates by "Diplomat," "Pastor," or "Academic." The Church usually swings like a pendulum; if the current Pope is a Pastor, the next might be a Diplomat.
The decision is rarely about who is the "best" man, but who fits the specific "moment" the world is in when the doors of the Sistine Chapel finally swing shut.