It feels like the 2024 election was just yesterday, but the political machine is already grinding toward the next one. Honestly, the question of who will be the democratic candidate in 2028 isn't just a fun parlor game for D.C. insiders anymore. It’s a full-blown shadow campaign. If you look closely, you’ll see the heavy hitters are already visiting New Hampshire, launching national podcasts, and picking very specific fights with the current administration.
The Democratic Party is in a weird spot. They’re effectively in the "wilderness," searching for a new identity while trying to figure out if they should lean into progressive fire or play it safe with a moderate from a swing state.
The California Heavyweights: Newsom vs. Harris
If you look at early polling from late 2025 and the start of 2026, two names consistently sit at the top: Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris. It’s a bit of a "frenemy" situation. Both got their start in San Francisco under the same mentor, Willie Brown, and they’ve spent decades avoiding a direct collision. That’s about to change.
Newsom has basically become the "Resistor-in-Chief." He’s been using his platform as Governor of California to sue the federal government on everything from climate policy to immigration. He even launched a podcast and a national PAC, Campaign for Democracy, which raised nearly $4 million by late 2025. He’s being coy about it, saying things like "Fate will determine that," but his travel schedule to South Carolina says otherwise.
Then you’ve got former Vice President Kamala Harris. She has the name recognition and the fundraising network, but she’s carrying the weight of the 2024 loss. She recently told the BBC, "I am not done," which is about as clear a signal as you can get. The big hurdle for both? The "California Liberal" label. Critics argue that to win back the Rust Belt, the party might need someone who doesn't come from a deep-blue coastal bubble.
The Swing-State "Fixers": Shapiro and Moore
This is where things get interesting. If the party decides they’ve had enough of the West Coast vibe, they’re going to look at Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Wes Moore of Maryland.
Shapiro is a fascinating case. He just launched his 2026 reelection campaign for Governor, but he’s already acting like a national figure. Just recently, in January 2026, he was at the White House with Wes Moore to sign a bipartisan agreement on electricity prices. He’s positioning himself as the guy who can actually get stuff done with a Republican administration without looking like a "sellout." He talks about "standing up to bullies" but manages to keep a working relationship with the current President.
- Josh Shapiro: High favorability in a must-win state (PA), pragmatic, focus on "affordability."
- Wes Moore: Rising star, veteran, Rhodes Scholar, and brings a fresh, energetic "Patriotic Labor" vibe.
Moore is a dark horse but shouldn't be ignored. He’s been working closely with federal agencies on massive infrastructure projects, like the Francis Scott Key Bridge rebuild. He’s testing a message that blends progressive values with a very traditional sense of service and duty.
The "Mayor Pete" Factor and the Progressive Left
You can’t talk about 2028 without Pete Buttigieg. He’s still the darling of the "town hall" circuit. Even after leaving the Department of Transportation, he’s been popping up on podcasts—including those aimed at young men, a group Democrats are desperately trying to win back. In a New Hampshire poll from October 2025, Buttigieg actually led the pack with 19%, slightly ahead of Newsom. He’s got that "next-gen problem solver" energy that appeals to the moderate-liberal wing.
On the other side, there’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). She’s been touring the country with Bernie Sanders, hitting "red" areas in "blue" states to talk about working-class issues. Her team is reportedly weighing whether she should run for the Senate in New York or go straight for the White House. If she enters, the primary becomes an entirely different beast. It would force a massive debate over whether the party should move toward "Democratic Socialism" or stay in the center-left lane.
The Battle for the Calendar
While we're all looking at the people, the DNC is fighting over the primary calendar. This sounds boring, but it’s actually everything. Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan are all pushing to be the "first-in-the-nation" primary.
Why does this matter? Because if Michigan goes first, a candidate like Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro has a massive advantage. If South Carolina or Georgia stays early, it favors someone like Harris who has strong support among Black voters. The Rules and Bylaws committee is supposed to decide the lineup later this year. It's basically a proxy war for the party's soul.
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Why This Race Is Different
Most people get 2028 wrong because they assume it’ll be a repeat of 2020 or 2024. It won't be. The "Goldilocks" candidate this time around needs to do two things simultaneously:
- Be a "Fighter": Someone who can go toe-to-toe with Trump on social media and in debates.
- Be a "Healer": Someone who doesn't alienate the moderates and independents who decided the last few elections.
Polls show that about 46% of Democrats think the party is "about right" on issues, but a massive 74% want their leaders to fight the current administration more aggressively. This "Moderate Fighter" profile is hard to find. Cory Booker is often mentioned here—he’s progressive-friendly but pragmatic, and he recently made waves with a record-breaking Senate floor speech.
Actionable Next Steps for Following the 2028 Race
- Watch the 2026 Midterms: This is the real "pre-season." If Josh Shapiro or Wes Moore wins big in their home states, they become instant frontrunners. If Newsom-backed candidates fail to flip House seats in California, his "star power" might dim.
- Monitor the DNC Calendar Meetings: Keep an eye on which state gets the "First" spot. It tells you exactly which type of candidate the party establishment is trying to protect.
- Follow Small-Dollar Fundraising: In the age of decentralized politics, the candidate who can raise $5 million from $20 donations in a single weekend (like Newsom has been doing) will have the staying power to survive a long primary.
- Listen to the "Manosphere" Podcasts: It sounds weird, but watch which Democrats are appearing on non-political podcasts. Buttigieg and Newsom are leading the charge here, trying to reach voters who don't watch CNN or MSNBC.
The road to the 2028 nomination is going to be messy, expensive, and full of surprises. But right now, the momentum is shifting away from the "old guard" and toward governors who can claim they know how to run a state while the rest of the country is in a state of political flux.