Everyone has that one friend. You know the guy—he watches three highlights on Sunday morning, sees that the Kansas City Chiefs are playing a struggling Raiders team, and immediately hammers the spread because "there's no way Mahomes loses this." That’s the essence of the public bettor. If you want to know who the public is betting on NFL matchups, you don’t usually need a spreadsheet. Just look for the biggest brand names, the flashiest quarterbacks, and the teams coming off a massive primetime win.
Betting against the grain is scary. It feels wrong to put your hard-earned money on a 2-10 team playing a powerhouse. But in the world of sportsbooks, the "public" is often the casino's best friend.
The Psychology of the Public Fade
The "public" isn't a monolith, but it behaves like one. Most casual bettors gravitate toward "Over" bets and favorites. Why? Because rooting for points is fun. Rooting for a blowout is easy. Nobody goes to a sports bar hoping to see a 13-10 defensive slog where the underdog covers by a garbage-time field goal.
Sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel aren't charities. They know exactly how to shade a line to exploit this bias. If the "true" line on a Cowboys game should be -6, but they know the world loves Dallas, they’ll open at -7 or -7.5. They are essentially charging a "popularity tax." When you ask who the public is betting on NFL rosters this week, you’re usually identifying the teams where the value has been sucked dry.
Take the 2024-2025 season as a prime example. Early on, the public was obsessed with the Houston Texans. C.J. Stroud was the golden boy. Every week, the betting splits showed 70% or 80% of tickets on Houston. Yet, they struggled to cover those inflated numbers. The public sees the talent; the sharps see the inflated price tag.
Betting Splits vs. Handle: Knowing the Difference
If you're looking at a site like Action Network or Pregame, you'll see two sets of numbers. One is the percentage of "tickets" (the number of individual bets). The other is the "handle" (the actual amount of money).
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This is where things get interesting.
If a game has 80% of bets on the San Francisco 49ers but only 40% of the money, what does that tell you? It means the masses—the $10 and $20 bettors—are all over the Niners. But the "whales" or the professional syndicates are dropping massive five-figure sums on the underdog. In the industry, we call this "Reverse Line Movement." It’s the single most important signal for anyone trying to move beyond amateur status.
Why Primetime Games Distort Everything
The public loves a spectacle. Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football are the biggest traps in the betting world. Because it’s the only game on TV, everyone wants "action."
When a team looks dominant on Sunday Night Football, the public's memory is incredibly short. They’ll bet that team the following week regardless of the matchup. This is "recency bias" in its purest form. If the Buffalo Bills just hung 45 points on someone, the public will bet them the next week even if they're traveling across the country to face a gritty divisional rival in the rain.
The oddsmakers know you watched that game. They know you're impressed. They bake that "impression" into the next week's spread.
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The "Public" Teaser Trap
Another way to see who the public is betting on NFL slates is to look at popular teasers. Betting "The House" favorites—usually three favorites teased down six points—is the most common way casuals lose their bankrolls.
You think, "Okay, the Eagles just have to win by 1, and the Lions just have to win by 2." It sounds like free money. It isn't. The NFL is designed for parity. All it takes is one backdoor cover or one missed extra point to kill a teaser. Books love these because they create an illusion of safety while actually increasing the house edge significantly.
Spotting the "Joe Public" Favorites
There are certain teams that are "Public Teams" by default.
- The Dallas Cowboys: Always. Win or lose, the public bets them.
- The Kansas City Chiefs: The Mahomes factor. People hate betting against him, even when the Chiefs play "down" to their competition and fail to cover large spreads.
- The Detroit Lions: Recently joined this list. Their "gritty" brand and high-scoring offense make them a public darling.
- The Over: In almost every game, the public leans toward the Over. We want to see touchdowns. We don't want to cheer for punts.
How to Actually Use This Information
Knowing who the public is betting on NFL isn't about blindly doing the opposite. That’s called "blind fading," and it’s a quick way to go broke, too. Sometimes the public is right. Sometimes a great team is just great and covers the "popularity tax" with ease.
The goal is to find "inflated" situations.
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Look for a game where the public is heavy on a favorite (75% of tickets or more) but the line moves toward the underdog. For example, if the Ravens open at -7 and 80% of people bet them, but the line drops to -6.5 or -6, that is a massive red flag. It means the people who do this for a living are betting the other way.
Honestly, the best thing you can do is wait. Public money usually floods in late—Saturday night and Sunday morning. If you want to bet an underdog, wait until Sunday morning when the public has pushed the line as high as it will go. If you want to bet a favorite, grab it early in the week before the masses inflate the price.
Practical Steps for Your Next Bet
Instead of following the crowd, try this workflow for the upcoming slate:
- Check the Betting Splits: Use a reputable site to see where the ticket count lies. If a team has over 70% of the bets, they are the "public side."
- Monitor the Line Movement: If the public is on the favorite but the line is staying still or moving down, look seriously at the underdog.
- Identify the "Ugly" Dog: Find a team that looked terrible last week. A team everyone is making fun of on Twitter. That team is likely undervalued because the public's perception is at an all-time low.
- Ignore the "Expert" Panels: Most pre-game shows are designed for entertainment, not sharp betting advice. If every analyst on a desk picks the same team, that's often a sign the line is primed for an upset.
- Track the "Sharps": Follow respected analysts who talk about "closing line value" (CLV). If you consistently bet on lines that are better than what they end up at kickoff, you’ll win in the long run.
The NFL is a league of cycles. No team is as good as their best win, and no team is as bad as their worst loss. The public forgets this every single Sunday. By the time the kickoff for the late-afternoon window happens, the "consensus" picks have usually shifted the lines into territory where there is no value left.
Stop asking who everyone else is taking. Start asking why the oddsmakers are making it so easy for you to take them. That’s where the real money is made.