Fantasy football is a game of ego. We fall in love with "our guys." You drafted them, you watched them put up 30 points in Week 14, and now you’re staring at your roster in the offseason thinking there is no way you can let them go. But here is the cold, hard truth: most people have no idea who should I keep in fantasy football because they value names over draft capital.
It hurts to hear.
If you’re in a keeper league, you aren't just managing a roster. You’re managing an economy. It is about the "surplus value." If you keep Breece Hall in the first round, you haven't gained anything. You’ve just paid retail price. But if you keep Kyren Williams for a 12th-round pick? Now you're playing the game.
The Mathematical Trap of the "Best Player"
People get obsessed with talent. Talent is great, but talent at a discount is what wins championships. When you’re staring at your settings page trying to decide who should I keep in fantasy football, you have to look at the opportunity cost.
Let's look at a real-world scenario from the 2025 season. Imagine you have Justin Jefferson. He’s a god. He’s incredible. But if your league rules say keeping him costs you your first-round pick (1.04), you’ve gained zero leverage. You could have just drafted him there anyway. Now, look at a guy like Nico Collins or Tank Dell. If you can keep a high-end WR2 or low-end WR1 for a 7th or 8th-round price tag, you’ve effectively gained a free 2nd-round pick.
That’s the secret.
You want to create a "double-tap" at the top of your draft. By keeping a late-round gem, you keep your early picks. Imagine starting your draft with three Top-15 players because you used your keeper slot on a mid-round breakout. That is how you build a juggernaut.
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Don't be the manager who keeps a QB in a 1-QB league just because he’s "the best." Patrick Mahomes is phenomenal, but keeping him for a 3rd-round pick is almost always a mistake when the difference between him and a 10th-round Jayden Daniels or Jordan Love isn't wide enough to justify the cost.
Positional Scarcity is a Liar
We used to say "Running Back or Bust." That’s dead.
The NFL has changed. Committees are everywhere. In 2024 and 2025, we saw the rise of the "Elite TE" and "Hero RB" strategies. When you're deciding who should I keep in fantasy football, you have to account for how many players at that position actually provide a massive weekly advantage.
Take the Tight End position. If you have Sam LaPorta or Brock Bowers at a double-digit round cost, you hold onto that like your life depends on it. Why? Because the gap between the TE1 and the TE12 is a literal ocean. By locking in a top-tier producer at a fractional cost, you don't have to stress about the "TE Wasteland" during your live draft. You can just hammer Wide Receivers while your leaguemates are panic-reaching for mediocre options.
Rookies are the ultimate keeper bait.
NFL teams are getting better at playing young guys early. Look at the impact of players like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers. If you snagged a high-profile rookie in the middle rounds last year, they are almost certainly your best keeper option. Their "ceiling" is usually much higher than a veteran whose stats have plateaued.
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Why You Should Probably Throw That QB Back
Unless you are in a Superflex league (where you can start two QBs), keeping a quarterback is usually a losing move.
Seriously.
The "replacement level" at QB is too high. You can almost always find a Kirk Cousins, a Baker Mayfield, or the next rushing-threat rookie on the waiver wire or in the late rounds. If you use a keeper spot on a QB, you are giving up a chance to hoard "lottery ticket" RBs or high-volume WRs. In a 12-team league, there are always 15-18 QBs who are "fine." There are never enough starting RBs to go around. Focus your keeper energy on the guys who touch the ball 20 times a game or see 10+ targets.
Age, Injury, and the "Climb"
Stats from platforms like PlayerProfiler and FantasyPoints show that wide receivers typically hit their "peak" around age 25 to 27. Running backs? They start dying at 26.
It’s brutal, but it’s true.
If you're debating who should I keep in fantasy football between a 28-year-old RB coming off a heavy-workload season and a 23-year-old WR who just had a breakout sophomore year, take the receiver. Every time. The "burnout" rate for RBs is terrifying. One high-ankle sprain or an ACL tear, and that "stud" is suddenly a roster clogger.
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Always look at the offensive line changes too. Did your keeper's team lose their All-Pro Left Tackle in free agency? That matters more than his Madden rating. If the environment around the player has decayed, their fantasy output will follow.
Your League Rules are the Map
I see this all the time: managers ignoring their own constitution.
- Does the keeper cost increase every year? (e.g., if you keep him in the 10th this year, he costs an 8th next year).
- Is there a limit on how many years you can keep a player?
- Do "waiver wire" pickups count as last-round picks or middle-round picks?
If your league allows you to keep waiver wire pickups for a last-round pick, that is where the gold is buried. These are the Kyren Williams or Puka Nacua situations. These players represent the highest ROI (Return on Investment) in the history of the game. If you have one of these, stop reading and go lock him in right now.
However, if your league forces you to give up your 1st or 2nd rounder regardless of where you drafted the player, you should almost always "throw them back." Why? Because it gives you maximum flexibility. If you don't keep anyone, you enter the draft with a clean slate and all your high-value picks. You can react to how the draft falls rather than being "locked in" to a player who might have a terrible Week 1 matchup or a sudden coaching change.
Actionable Strategy for This Offseason
To decide who should I keep in fantasy football, follow this specific hierarchy of logic:
- Calculate the Round Value: Take the player’s current ADP (Average Draft Position) for the upcoming season and subtract the round you have to give up to keep him. The higher the number, the better the keeper. (e.g., ADP 2nd round - Keeper Cost 10th round = +8 Value).
- Evaluate the "Floor": High-value keepers need to be safe. Don't keep a boom-or-bust deep threat WR over a boring, consistent 15-touch RB.
- Check the Depth Chart: Did the team draft a rookie to replace your guy? If the Miami Dolphins draft a RB in the 2nd round, your "cheap" Raheem Mostert keeper suddenly looks a lot less appetizing.
- Confirm the Injury Status: Never lock in a keeper who is currently rehabbing a major injury unless the discount is so massive it covers the risk of a slow start.
The biggest mistake you can make is keeping a player just because you like watching them on RedZone. This isn't a fan club; it’s a competition. Be cold. Be calculated. If the value isn't there, let them go back into the pool. You can always draft them again if the price is right.
Keep the players that give you an unfair advantage before the draft even starts. That is how you win.
Your Next Steps
- Audit your league settings: Double-check the exact draft pick cost for every potential keeper on your roster.
- Compare to 2026 ADP: Check current mock draft trends to see where those players are actually being drafted today.
- Negotiate trades: If your league allows it, try trading a player you can't keep to a manager who has a worse roster for a future draft pick.
- Finalize your list: Aim for players with a value-surplus of at least 3 rounds compared to their current market price.