The thing about a papal conclave is that everyone thinks it’s like a corporate board meeting. It isn't. Not even close. You’ve probably heard that old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal." It’s a cliché because it’s true. It's basically the ultimate "don't count your chickens" scenario.
Right now, we are looking at a College of Cardinals that is more diverse—and frankly, more unpredictable—than at any point in history. Pope Francis spent over a decade packing the room with "cardinals from the peripheries." He bypassed the big, fancy European cathedrals and picked guys from places like Mongolia, Tonga, and the Amazon.
So, who are the cardinals in the running for pope right now?
If you ask the bookies, they’ll give you a list. If you ask the Vatican insiders (the vaticanisti), they’ll give you a different one. But if you look at the actual math of the 1.4 billion-strong Church, a few names keep bubbling to the surface. It’s not just about who’s "holy." It's about who can bridge the massive gap between the progressive wing in the West and the rapidly growing, more conservative wing in Africa and Asia.
The Continuity Candidates: Keeping the Francis Vibe
For the cardinals who want to keep the current momentum going, there are two or three names that come up in every single conversation. These are the guys who live and breathe the "Church for the poor" mentality.
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Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi is often called the "Bergoglio of Italy." He’s the Archbishop of Bologna, but he’s not some stuffy academic. He’s a "street priest" who rode his bike around Rome for years. Honestly, his biggest strength is his connection to the Sant’Egidio community. That’s a lay group that does a lot of the Vatican’s unofficial diplomacy. Zuppi was one of the guys who helped broker peace in the Mozambique civil war back in the 90s. He’s got that mix of pastoral warmth and high-level diplomatic grit. If the cardinals want "Francis 2.0," Zuppi is the guy.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
"Chito." That’s his nickname. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is basically a rockstar in the Philippines. He’s known for getting emotional, for crying during his homilies, and for having a massive social media following. He’s currently a big deal in the Roman Curia, heading up the evangelization department. People love him because he’s incredibly charismatic. But being a "favorite" for too long can be a curse. Sometimes the guys who are frontrunners for years end up getting picked apart by their peers before the doors even lock.
Peter Turkson (Ghana)
If the Church is serious about its future being in the Global South, Cardinal Turkson is a massive contender. He’s been the point man on climate change and social justice for years. He’s smart, he’s polyglot, and he knows how the Vatican bureaucracy works. There’s a lot of talk about whether the world is ready for the first African pope in centuries. Turkson is usually the first name mentioned in that specific bracket.
The Pivot: When the Church Wants a "Safe Pair of Hands"
Sometimes, after a long, transformative papacy like Francis’s, the cardinals get a little exhausted. They want a "transitional" pope. Someone who won't start a revolution but will keep the lights on and fix the plumbing. This is where the cardinals in the running for pope shift from the visionaries to the administrators.
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Pietro Parolin is the name here. He’s the Vatican Secretary of State. Basically the Prime Minister of the Holy See. He’s the ultimate diplomat. He’s the one who had to deal with the China deal, the war in Ukraine, and all the messy internal Vatican finances. He’s a moderate. He doesn't make waves. The downside? He’s been in the middle of every controversy for a decade. Sometimes being the boss's right-hand man means you inherit all the boss's enemies.
Then there is Péter Erdő from Hungary. He’s a canon lawyer. A very, very smart canon lawyer. If the cardinals think the Church has become too "loose" with its rules, they might turn to Erdő. He represents the "friendly traditionalist" wing. He’s not going to scream from the rooftops, but he’d definitely bring back a more structured, law-and-order feel to the Vatican.
The Wildcards Nobody is Watching (But Should Be)
Every conclave has a "dark horse." In 1978, it was a guy from Poland named Karol Wojtyła. Nobody saw that coming.
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa: The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. He’s Italian but has spent his life in the Middle East. He’s tough. You have to be to manage the Church in Jerusalem. He’s younger than most candidates, which could be a pro or a con.
- Fridolin Ambongo Besungu: From the Democratic Republic of Congo. He’s been very vocal lately, especially about African autonomy within the Church. He’s a Capuchin friar, so he’s got that Franciscan "simple life" vibe, but with a much firmer stance on traditional doctrine than the current administration.
- Jean-Claude Hollerich: The Jesuit from Luxembourg. He was a missionary in Japan for years. He’s very tight with the synodal process, which makes him a darling of the progressives but a target for the conservatives.
How the Vote Actually Happens
It’s not a popular vote. You need a two-thirds majority. That is $2/3$ of the voting cardinals, which usually means around 80+ votes.
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Think about that. It’s a huge number.
It means a candidate doesn't just need to be liked; they need to be un-hated by almost everyone. This is why many conclaves start with the big names and then, after four or five ballots, everyone realizes nobody is winning. That’s when the "compromise candidate" emerges. Someone who wasn't on anyone's list on Monday but is wearing white by Wednesday.
What Actually Matters in 2026?
The biggest issues facing the next pope aren't just theological. It's the "middle-management" of the Church.
- The Financial Mess: The Vatican is still trying to clean up its books after decades of scandals.
- Secularization: How do you keep the Church relevant in Europe and North America where pews are emptying?
- The Global Shift: The Church is moving South and East. The next pope has to speak to Lagos and Manila just as much as he speaks to Paris or New York.
The cardinals in the running for pope know the stakes are high. There’s a lot of talk about "synodality"—which is basically a fancy Church word for "listening to everyone." Whether the next pope continues that or goes back to a more top-down approach is the billion-dollar question.
Your Next Steps in Following the Conclave
If you want to keep tabs on who actually has a shot, don't just look at the news headlines. Look at who is getting the "big" assignments from the Pope. Watch who is speaking at the major international conferences.
- Track the Consistories: See who Pope Leo XIV (or the current pontiff) elevates to the College.
- Monitor the Synod reports: The cardinals who lead these discussions are the ones building the alliances they'll need later.
- Watch the "Quiet" Diplomats: Often, the most powerful cardinals are the ones you never see on TV.
The papacy isn't a campaign, but the "pre-campaigning" is very real. It happens in the coffee shops around St. Peter's Square and in the quiet hallways of the Vatican. Stay tuned, because when the white smoke finally goes up, it’s usually the person the world least expected.