The white smoke hasn't gone up yet, but the whispers in the Borgo Pio—the neighborhood right outside the Vatican walls—are getting louder. Honestly, trying to guess who may be the next pope is a bit like trying to predict the weather in a city you’ve never visited using a map from 1950.
It’s complicated.
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There is a famous saying in Rome: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves it a cardinal." Basically, if everyone thinks you’re the frontrunner, you’re probably toast. But in 2026, the stakes feel different. We aren't just looking at a change in leadership; we’re looking at a tug-of-war between the legacy of Pope Francis and a growing desire for what some call "stability" and others call "a hard reset."
The Continuity Candidates: Keeping the Francis Flame Alive
If the cardinals decide they want more of what Francis started—a focus on the poor, a "synodal" church where everyone has a voice, and a softer tone on social issues—they’re looking for a continuity candidate.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the name that pops up in every single conversation. He’s the Vatican Secretary of State. Think of him as the ultimate diplomat. He’s 70, which is "Vatican young," and he knows where all the bodies are buried, figuratively speaking. He’s been the guy handling the mess in China and trying to navigate the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Some say he’s too much of a bureaucrat. Others think a steady, diplomatic hand is exactly what the Church needs after the whirlwind of the last decade.
Then there’s Cardinal Matteo Zuppi. If you want a pope who actually hangs out with people, Zuppi is your guy. He’s the Archbishop of Bologna and is deeply tied to the Sant'Egidio community—a group known for "street diplomacy" and helping the marginalized. He once wrote the foreword for a book by Father James Martin about reaching out to the LGBTQ+ community. That makes him a hero to some and a "no-go" for others.
The Asian Factor
We've never had an Asian pope. Many experts, including those at The Tablet and National Catholic Reporter, have their eyes on Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. He’s often called "the Asian Francis." He’s charismatic, he cries when he’s moved, and he’s incredibly popular in the Global South.
The knock on him? Some say he’s a bit of a weak manager. Others worry he’s too young at 67. Cardinals sometimes shy away from young candidates because they don't want a 30-year papacy that locks the Church into one direction for a generation.
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The "Great Pivot" Candidates: A Return to Tradition
Not everyone is happy with the current direction. There is a vocal group of cardinals who feel the Church has become too "blurry" on doctrine. They want someone who will bring back clarity.
Cardinal Péter Erdő from Hungary is the intellectual heavyweight of the conservative wing. He’s a canon lawyer, he’s brilliant, and he doesn't shy away from traditional stances on things like migration or liturgy. If the conclave feels like the "Francis experiment" went too far, Erdő is the logical correction.
And we have to talk about Cardinal Robert Sarah. Originally from Guinea, he’s become a symbol of traditionalism. He’s been very critical of the "Western" push for progressive reforms. While his name is always in the mix, he’s a polarizing figure. In a conclave where you need a two-thirds majority to win, being polarizing is usually a death sentence for your candidacy.
The Wildcards Nobody is Talking About (But Should Be)
Sometimes the cardinals get stuck. If the "Francis fans" and the "Tradition fans" can't agree, they look for a bridge.
- Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa: The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. This guy is fascinating. He’s Italian but has spent decades in the Middle East. He even offered himself as a hostage to Hamas in exchange for children. That kind of gutsy move gets noticed. He’s a Franciscan, like the current Pope, but he’s seen as a pragmatist who can talk to anyone.
- Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost: Could we actually see an American pope? Prevost was born in Chicago but spent most of his life as a missionary in Peru. He currently heads the Dicastery for Bishops—the office that helps the Pope pick new bishops. He’s a moderate, he speaks Spanish fluently, and he understands the "periphery" that Francis loves.
Why the "American" Label is a Problem
Historically, the Church has avoided American popes. Why? Because the U.S. is already a global superpower. The fear is that an American pope would make the Vatican look like an extension of the State Department. But since Prevost is seen more as a "missionary from Peru" than a "Chicago politician," he might be the first to break that glass ceiling.
What Really Happens Inside the Sistine Chapel
You’ve seen the movies, right? The locked doors, the burnt ballots, the drama. It’s actually much more boring and much more tense than Hollywood portrays.
The cardinals aren't allowed to have phones. No Twitter. No leaking to the press. They spend their time in "General Congregations" before the vote even starts, basically interviewing each other. This is where the real work happens. They talk about the state of the Church, the scandals, the finances, and what the "next guy" needs to fix.
By the time they get to the 2026 conclave, they will be looking at a College of Cardinals that is more international than ever. Francis has "packed" the court, so to speak, by appointing cardinals from places like Mongolia, South Sudan, and Tonga. These guys don't care about Italian palace intrigue. They care about climate change, poverty, and how to keep their churches open under persecution.
Actionable Insights for Following the Succession
If you want to track this like a pro, stop looking at the "Vatican experts" who only talk about who is "liberal" or "conservative." It’s rarely that simple. Instead, watch for these specific indicators:
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- The "Pre-Conclave" Speeches: If a cardinal gives a speech that gets a lot of buzz for being "balanced" or "visionary," his stock goes up. Watch for Matteo Zuppi or Jean-Marc Aveline of France.
- The Age Bracket: Look for the 68–75 age range. That’s the "Goldilocks zone." Not too young to stay forever, not too old to die next week.
- The "Third World" Shift: The center of gravity in the Catholic Church has moved to Africa and Asia. A candidate who can bridge the gap between European tradition and the energy of the Global South—like Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo from the Congo—is a serious threat to the status quo.
Keep an eye on the official Vatican news outlets, but also follow independent journalists like John Allen Jr. or the team at The Pillar. They often catch the nuances that mainstream news misses. The next pope isn't just a religious leader; he’s the head of the world's oldest diplomatic entity. Whether you’re Catholic or not, who sits on that throne affects global politics, social trends, and international aid for billions.