Military experts hate this question. If you ask a retired general or a front-line analyst who is winning the war in Ukraine, they won't give you a scoreboard. There is no ticking clock. Instead, you get a grim look and a talk about "attrition ratios," "industrial capacity," and "political willpower." It’s messy. It’s brutal. Honestly, the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at a map of muddy trenches in the Donbas or the balance sheets of central banks in Brussels and Moscow.
We’ve moved past the era of lightning-fast maneuvers. Remember the Kharkiv counteroffensive? That feels like a lifetime ago. Now, the conflict has settled into a grinding, industrial-scale nightmare.
Russia holds a significant chunk of Ukrainian territory—roughly 18% depending on the week—but they’ve paid for it with a staggering loss of life. Ukraine, meanwhile, has proven that a smaller nation with western tech can punch way above its weight class, yet they are facing a demographic crisis and "shell hunger" that makes every kilometer gained feel like a pyrrhic victory.
The map vs. the math: Who actually has the edge?
If you just look at the dirt, Russia is technically "winning" in the sense that they occupy lands they didn't hold before February 2022. They’ve seized cities like Avdiivka and Bakhmut by literally leveling them to the ground. It’s a scorched-earth victory. They have more people to throw into the meat grinder. Vladimir Putin has pivoted the entire Russian economy toward a war footing, with military spending swallowing up about 6% to 7% of their GDP. They are outproducing the West in basic artillery shells, sometimes by a ratio of three to one.
But ground gained isn't the only metric.
Ukraine has effectively neutralized the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Think about that. A country without a functional traditional navy used sea drones and Western missiles to force Russia's warships to retreat from Crimea. That is a massive strategic win. It kept the grain corridors open. It kept the Ukrainian economy breathing. So, while Russia takes a few hundred meters of treeline in the east, Ukraine is winning the battle for the waves and the skies over the peninsula.
The drone revolution and the end of "safe" rears
The battlefield is transparent now. You can't hide a tank anymore.
First-person view (FPV) drones have changed everything. A $500 drone can take out a multi-million dollar T-90 tank. This tech has leveled the playing field, allowing Ukrainian units to stall massive Russian armored columns. But Russia caught up. They’ve scaled their own drone production and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. It’s a constant cat-and-mouse game. One week, Ukrainian EW blocks everything; the next, Russian "Lancet" drones are picking off artillery pieces with terrifying precision.
The Western lifeline and the fatigue factor
Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight is tethered to Washington and Berlin. It’s that simple.
When the US Congress stalled on the aid package back in late 2023 and early 2024, the effects on the front line were immediate. Ukrainian gunners had to ration shells. They were firing one shot for every ten the Russians sent back.
Public opinion in the West is the real "second front."
You’ve seen the headlines. People are tired. Inflation, domestic politics, and other global crises like the Middle East compete for attention. Russia is banking on this. Putin’s strategy isn't necessarily to conquer Kyiv tomorrow—he knows he can’t. His strategy is to outlast the West's patience. If the flow of HIMARS, Patriots, and ATACMS dries up, the question of who is winning the war in Ukraine gets a very dark answer very quickly.
Personnel: The looming crisis
Russia has a population of 140 million. Ukraine has about 38 million (and many have fled).
You can’t ignore the biology of war.
Ukraine had to lower its mobilization age because the average soldier on the front line was in their 40s. That’s not sustainable. You need young men for assault operations. Russia, despite its horrific casualties—estimated by Western intelligence to be over 500,000 killed or wounded—can keep recruiting from its poorest regions by offering massive signing bonuses. It's a cynical, effective way to keep the war going without sparking a revolution in Moscow or St. Petersburg.
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Why "Winning" is a moving target
Success for Ukraine looks like a return to the 1991 borders. That includes Crimea.
Success for Russia looks like the total "denazification" (their word for regime change) and the permanent annexation of the four oblasts they claimed in 2022.
Neither side is close to their goal.
We are seeing a "frozen conflict" that is anything but cold. It’s hot, violent, and loud. If the front lines stabilize into a long-term stalemate, Russia might claim a win by holding the "land bridge" to Crimea. Ukraine would claim a win by surviving as a sovereign, pro-Western democracy that is eventually integrated into the EU and NATO.
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In a way, Ukraine has already won the most important battle: the battle for its existence. In February 2022, the world thought Kyiv would fall in three days. It’s 2026. The blue and yellow flag still flies over the capital.
Real-world implications for the coming months
What should you actually watch to see which way the wind is blowing? Forget the daily maps for a second. Watch these three things instead:
- Air Superiority and F-16s: The arrival of Western jets was supposed to be a silver bullet. It wasn't. But, their ability to push back Russian glide-bombing aircraft is crucial. If Ukraine can stop the "KAB" bombs that flatten their fortifications, the Russian advance stalls.
- Russian Domestic Stability: Sanctions haven't collapsed the Ruble, but they are hollowing out the Russian economy. Watch for signs of labor shortages and hyper-inflation in Russia. Even a dictatorship needs a functioning backbone.
- Deep Strikes: Ukraine is now using its own long-range drones to hit Russian oil refineries. This is a direct attack on Putin's wallet. If Ukraine can knock out 15-20% of Russia's refining capacity, the Kremlin has to choose between fueling tanks and keeping gas prices low at home.
The reality of who is winning the war in Ukraine is that we are in a period of "competitive endurance." It’s a test of who breaks first. It’s a test of whether the democratic world can stay focused longer than an autocrat can stay aggressive.
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To stay informed, look past the sensationalist "collapse is imminent" headlines. Focus on the attrition of high-end equipment like air defense systems and the rate of domestic drone production. Those are the metrics that will eventually decide the endgame. If you want to support the effort, staying engaged with your local representatives regarding aid packages remains the most direct way to influence the outcome on the ground.