Look, the dust has long since settled, but people are still asking the same question. It’s early 2026. The 2024 race isn't a race anymore; it’s history. If you're looking for the scoreboard, Donald Trump is the one in the White House. He secured his return as the 47th President of the United States after a pretty wild 2024 cycle that felt like three different movies mashed into one.
Honestly, the map didn’t just tip; it shifted. Trump cleared the path with 312 electoral votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 226. He didn't just squeak by in the Electoral College, either. For the first time since 2004, a Republican actually won the popular vote too, pulling in roughly 49.8% of the total ballots cast nationwide.
It’s been about a year since the second inauguration. Now, the conversation has shifted from "who is winning" to "who is winning the argument" over how the country is being run.
The results that changed everything
You've probably heard the term "landslide" thrown around, and while that's a bit of a subjective word in politics, winning all seven swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada—is a statement. That basically closed the door on any path for the Democrats.
Harris had a tough hill to climb. She stepped in late after President Biden’s exit in July 2024. Despite a massive surge in fundraising and some early momentum, the "blue wall" didn't hold. Voters kept pointing to the same few things: the price of eggs, the rent, and a general feeling that the country was on the wrong track.
Trump’s victory was historic for a few reasons that even his critics have to admit are pretty wild:
- He is the first president since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s to lose an election and then come back to win a non-consecutive term.
- He became the oldest person ever inaugurated at age 78.
- He won Nevada, a state that hadn't gone red for a president in twenty years.
Is anyone "winning" in 2026?
If we’re talking about current momentum, the "winning" vibe is a bit more complicated now. Trump holds a "trifecta"—Republicans control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. In terms of raw power, they’re winning. They can pass budgets and confirm judges without much help from the other side.
But if you look at the polls coming out this January, the honeymoon period seems to be over. A recent CNN and SSRS poll found that about 60% of Americans are already describing this first year back as a "failure." That’s a heavy word.
Approval ratings are hovering around 39%. That’s a significant drop from the 48% he had right around the inauguration. Why the slide? It seems like some of the big swings are making people nervous. We’re seeing massive interventions in foreign policy, like the recent military operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro, and talks about "taking over" Greenland that have left world leaders—and plenty of voters—scratching their heads.
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What about the next election?
Since Trump is in his second term, he’s constitutionally barred from running again in 2028. This means the "who is winning" question is already starting to apply to the next crop of candidates.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance is obviously the frontrunner to carry the torch. He’s been a central figure in the administration's "America First" 2.0 agenda. Meanwhile, Democrats are essentially in a massive rebuilding phase. Names like Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer are constantly in the headlines as they try to figure out how to win back those working-class voters in the Rust Belt who jumped ship in 2024.
The 2026 midterms are coming up fast. This is the real test. Usually, the party in power loses seats during the midterms. If that happens, the GOP’s current "winning" streak could hit a brick wall by next year.
Real-world takeaways
So, who is winning? Officially, it’s Donald Trump. But "winning" in politics is a fleeting thing. If you're trying to keep track of where things stand right now, here is what you actually need to watch:
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- The 2026 Midterms: This will determine if Trump keeps his legislative "trifecta" or if he’ll face a split Congress for the last two years of his term.
- Inflation and Costs: This was the #1 reason people voted the way they did in 2024. If prices don’t stay down, the "winning" party will likely pay for it at the polls.
- Foreign Policy Shifts: Watch the headlines about trade tariffs and military moves. These are the things currently driving the dip in approval ratings.
The best way to stay informed isn't just watching the horse race; it's watching the policy. Check out the latest Federal Reserve reports on consumer prices and keep an eye on the House and Senate calendars for major upcoming votes on the 2026 budget. That’s where the real "winning" and "losing" happens for the rest of us.