If you’re still Googling who is winning the presidential election so far, the answer is actually a lot simpler than the 24-hour news cycle makes it feel. The 2024 election is over. Done. Dusted. Donald Trump won. He took the oath of office on January 20, 2025, and as of right now, in early 2026, he’s already deep into his second year of his second term.
It’s kind of wild how much has happened since that Tuesday in November 2024. Most people expected a weeks-long legal battle, but the map turned red much faster than the pollsters predicted. Trump didn't just win the Electoral College with 312 votes to Kamala Harris’s 226; he also became the first Republican to snag the popular vote since George W. Bush back in 2004. Honestly, that’s the part that caught the pundits off guard.
So, if you're looking for live results, you're basically looking at the rearview mirror. But if you're asking who’s "winning" in terms of the current political momentum as we head toward the 2026 midterms, that's where things get really interesting.
Why the 2024 Results Still Feel Like Breaking News
Usually, by the time a president is a year into their term, the election talk dies down. Not this time. People are still obsessed with the 2024 data because the shift in the "winning" coalition was so massive.
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Trump won all seven major swing states. Every single one. Nevada went Republican for the first time in twenty years. When we look at who is winning the presidential election so far in a historical sense, we’re seeing a total realignment of where voters stand. The "Blue Wall"—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—crumbled again, just like in 2016, but this time it felt more like a permanent move for many working-class voters.
The Big Shifts You Might Have Missed
- Latino Voters: A huge chunk of Hispanic men shifted toward the Republican ticket, especially in places like Florida and Texas.
- The Popular Vote: Trump finished with about 77.3 million votes compared to Harris’s 75 million.
- The "MAHA" Factor: The "Make America Healthy Again" movement, led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after he dropped his independent bid and joined Trump, brought in a lot of "health-conscious" voters who usually stay home or vote Green.
Who is Winning the Policy Battle Right Now?
Winning the election is one thing; winning the follow-through is another. Since the inauguration, the White House has been a whirlwind of executive orders. If you haven't been keeping up with the 11:00 PM news, the administration has already signed over 200 executive orders. That’s a record-breaking pace, even for Trump.
One of the biggest moves was the "Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act," which just got signed this January. It sounds like a small thing, but it’s part of a much larger push to overhaul the American food system through the MAHA initiative. On the flip side, the administration is also aggressively pursuing a "DOGE" (Department of Government Efficiency) plan, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, aimed at slashing federal spending.
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Is it working? It depends on who you ask.
The stock market had a massive "Trump Rally" immediately after the election, but the aggressive tariffs on imports—especially from China and Brazil—have made some economists nervous about long-term inflation. Trump’s team argues these are necessary to bring manufacturing back home, but your grocery bill might say otherwise.
The Road to the 2026 Midterms
Now that we know the answer to who is winning the presidential election so far is settled, the "win" everyone is eyeing now is the 120th Congress.
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Midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms. However, the current Republican majority in the House and Senate is trying to bake in as many wins as possible before that happens.
Recent generic ballot polls from early January 2026 show Democrats with a slight lead—about 4% or 5%—in the "who would you vote for" category. This suggests a potential "blue wave" could be building, but as we learned in 2024, polls aren't exactly gospel anymore. The Trump administration's focus on immigration and the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (focused on border security and deportations) continues to be the primary flashpoint for voters.
Key Factors for 2026:
- The Economy: While cheese and butter prices dipped slightly at the end of 2025, the 50% tariff on copper and other industrial materials is starting to hit the construction sector.
- Foreign Policy: The U.S. has officially initiated the withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO), a process that finishes this month.
- Social Policies: Executive orders defining sex as strictly biological and banning certain gender-related healthcare in federal facilities have energized both the base and the opposition.
What You Should Actually Look For
If you want to track who is actually winning the long game, stop looking at the 2024 map. Start looking at these three things:
- The Special Elections: Whenever a seat opens up in early 2026, look at the margin. Is the "MAGA" candidate winning by more or less than Trump did in 2024? That’s your real-time thermometer.
- Tariff Impact: Keep an eye on the "Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement." This is the trade deal with China that’s supposed to lower some tariffs in exchange for fentanyl crackdowns. If it fails, trade wars will dominate the 2026 headlines.
- The Courts: The administration is moving fast to fill judicial vacancies. These lifetime appointments are a "win" that lasts decades longer than a four-year term.
Basically, the 2024 presidential election is a closed book. Donald Trump is the 47th President. The "winning" now is about which party can control the narrative before the 2026 midterms kick into high gear.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should verify your local voter registration status now, as many states are updating their rolls ahead of the 2026 cycle. You can also track the daily Federal Register to see which executive orders are actually being implemented in your industry.