It is early 2026, and if you're asking about the "winner" of the presidential election, the answer depends entirely on whether you mean the man currently sitting in the Oval Office or the people already jockeying for the 2028 cycle.
Honestly, the landscape is wild.
Donald Trump is the 47th President of the United States. He took office on January 20, 2025, after defeating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. So, in the most literal sense, he is the one who "won." But as we hit the mid-point of January 2026, the conversation has shifted. People aren't just looking at who won last time; they're looking at who is winning the "invisible primary" for the next round and how the current administration is holding up under some pretty intense pressure.
Who is winning the presidential election as of now in terms of power?
Right now, the Republican party holds a federal trifecta. They have the White House, a 53-45 majority in the Senate, and a narrow 219-213 lead in the House. On paper, that's a massive "win."
But the "winning" vibe is getting complicated.
According to recent Gallup data from December, President Trump’s approval rating has dipped to about 36%. For context, he entered his second term with around 47% approval. It’s a steep drop, kind of reminiscent of the mid-term slumps we saw in his first term, but the reasons this time are much more geared toward foreign policy and the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) experiments.
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The Venezuela Factor
You can't talk about who's winning right now without talking about "Operation Absolute Resolve." In early January 2026, the U.S. military conducted a raid in Caracas to capture Nicolás Maduro.
Trump is essentially claiming he is the "Acting President of Venezuela" on social media.
While his base loves the "America First" strength, the operation has sparked massive protests in major cities like Minneapolis and Chicago. There's also a looming investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by the DOJ, which has even some Wall Street allies feeling a bit shaky.
The 2028 "Shadow Election" Standings
Even though the next presidential election is years away, the "who is winning" question is already being applied to potential successors. Since Trump cannot run again (22nd Amendment and all that), the field is wide open.
Basically, here is how the 2028 board looks today:
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- JD Vance: The current Vice President is the clear frontrunner for the GOP. Recent "Big Data Poll" numbers put him at 45% among Republican voters, miles ahead of everyone else.
- Kamala Harris: Despite her 2024 loss, she’s still leading Democratic preference polls at around 31%.
- Gavin Newsom: Close behind Harris at 21%. He’s been very vocal about the administration’s immigration crackdowns led by Kristi Noem.
- The "Wildcards": Names like Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio (who is currently Secretary of State) are in the mix, but they’re trailing the Vance juggernaut for now.
The 2026 Midterm Threat
While we focus on the presidency, the real "election" happening right now is the 2026 midterms.
If you look at the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are actually leading by about 4 points (roughly 45% to 41% on average). This suggests that while Trump won the 2024 election decisively with 312 electoral votes, the "win" might be short-lived if he loses Congress in November.
What most people get wrong about the current "Winner"
It’s easy to think a president with a trifecta is "winning" everything, but the 119th Congress is proving to be a headache.
There's been a lot of internal friction over the "Liberation Day" tariffs. These caused a temporary stock market crash last year, and while things have stabilized, the "Most Favored Nation" drug pricing deals (which Trump actually negotiated with 14 big pharma companies) are the only thing keeping his economic numbers from cratering entirely.
The administration has also started withdrawing the U.S. from a laundry list of international groups—everything from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Trade Centre. To his supporters, this is "winning" by saving money. To his critics, it’s a retreat that is helping China grow its influence.
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Real-world impact of the current leadership
- Prescription Drugs: If you're on Medicare, you might actually be seeing lower prices thanks to the "Most Favored Nation" status deals signed in late 2025.
- Immigration: It’s gotten much tougher. The administration recently halted immigrant visas from 75 countries.
- Foreign Policy: The U.S. is deeply involved in Venezuela and has conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites following the 2025 Iran-Israel war.
Actionable insights for following the 2026-2028 cycle
If you want to keep track of who is actually winning as we move through 2026, stop looking at 2024 maps. They’re old news.
Watch the "Generic Ballot" polls. If the Democratic lead grows beyond 5 points, the Trump administration will likely face a gridlocked second half of the term.
Monitor the Special Elections. We have big ones coming up in Texas and Georgia (thanks to Marjorie Taylor Greene resigning her seat). These are the first real "temperature checks" of the year.
Keep an eye on the "DOGE" reports. The Department of Government Efficiency is trying to rewrite how the federal government spends money. Whether they succeed or cause a total shutdown will probably decide the 2028 election before it even starts.
You've basically got a country split down the middle. One side sees a president taking bold action in South America and cutting costs; the other sees a constitutional crisis. As of today, the "winner" is Donald Trump, but the 2026 midterms will be the judge of whether that victory has any staying power.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should check the RealClearPolling averages once a month rather than following daily headlines. The trend lines in swing states like Michigan and Georgia are already starting to shift as the 2026 Senate races heat up.