If you’re still scrolling through old polls or checking to see if the map has changed, honestly, you can stop. The dust has settled. We are well past the "what if" stage and deep into the actual reality of who’s winning the presidency—and the answer is Donald J. Trump.
It’s January 2026. Trump has been back in the White House for a full year now. For anyone who took a long break from the news cycle, the 2024 election didn’t just end in a win; it ended in a massive electoral shift that caught a lot of the "experts" flat-footed.
How the 2024 election actually ended
Let’s look at the hard numbers because they tell a story that the pre-election vibes didn't always capture. Donald Trump didn't just squeak by. He won 312 Electoral College votes to Kamala Harris’s 226.
The real shocker for the Harris campaign? He swept all seven of the major swing states. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin—the "Blue Wall" basically crumbled. He even took Nevada, which was the first time a Republican had done that since George W. Bush in 2004.
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But here is the detail that people still argue about in coffee shops: the popular vote. For the first time in twenty years, a Republican won it. Trump pulled in roughly 77.3 million votes (49.8%) compared to Harris’s 75 million (48.3%). It wasn't a landslide in the 1984 Reagan sense, but it was a clear-cut victory that gave him a mandate he didn't have in 2016.
The inauguration that almost didn't happen outside
You might remember the photos. January 20, 2025, was brutal. Washington, D.C. was hit by freezing temperatures and winds so high that they actually had to move the ceremony.
Instead of the usual sprawling stage on the West Front of the Capitol, Trump took the oath as the 47th President inside the U.S. Capitol Rotunda. It felt smaller, more intimate, and definitely stranger. JD Vance was right there next to him, becoming one of the youngest Vice Presidents in history after resigning his Senate seat just days earlier.
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What is the state of the presidency in 2026?
Being the "winner" of the presidency is one thing. Actually running the country is a whole different beast. Right now, in early 2026, the honeymoon period is long gone.
Trump’s second term has been, well, exactly what you’d expect—high-speed and highly controversial. He started out with mass layoffs in the federal workforce and a massive piece of legislation called the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." He also leaned hard into tariffs, pushing them to levels we haven't seen since the Great Depression era.
But if we’re talking about who is "winning" in terms of public opinion right now, the numbers are getting tricky.
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- Approval Rating: Hovering around 43%.
- Economic Trust: Only 27% of people think the economy is in "good" or "excellent" shape.
- Top Concerns: 66% of Americans are laser-focused on inflation and healthcare costs.
Why the "Win" is being tested by the 2026 Midterms
We are currently in a midterm election year. Every single seat in the House is up for grabs, along with 35 seats in the Senate.
If you look at the generic ballot polls right now, the Democrats are actually leading by about 4.2 points. People are frustrated. While Trump does well in polls regarding immigration and crime, he’s getting hammered on the cost of living. There's this weird disconnect where the administration talks about a "booming" economy, but 72% of the public describes it as "fair" or "poor."
Basically, the 2024 "win" was a massive pivot point, but the 2026 midterms will decide if Trump actually has the power to finish his agenda. If Republicans lose the House this November, the final two years of this presidency will look a lot like a stalemate.
Actionable insights: What this means for you
So, the question of "who is winning the presidency" is answered by the calendar, but the impact of that win is still unfolding. Here is how you should navigate the current political climate:
- Watch the Tariffs: If you’re a business owner or a heavy consumer, track the ongoing tariff hikes. These are directly impacting supply chains and shelf prices in 2026.
- Ignore 2024 Rhetoric: Stop looking at 2024 campaign promises and start looking at the Federal Register. That’s where the actual Executive Orders are being published. It's the only way to see what's really changing in federal law.
- Prep for November 3: The 2026 midterms are the real "second half" of the 2024 election. Voter registration deadlines will start hitting soon—check your local status before the summer rush.
The 2024 election made history by putting a former president back in power for a non-consecutive term—something we haven't seen since Grover Cleveland in the 1800s. Whether that "win" translates into long-term success for the country is the story we are all watching play out right now.