If you’ve been doom-scrolling through political Twitter or refreshing news feeds lately, you’re probably asking the same question everyone else is: who is winning the election? Honestly, the answer depends entirely on which map you’re looking at. 2026 is shaping up to be a monster year for global politics, with over 40 countries heading to the polls.
Right now, as of mid-January, we finally have some hard numbers. We aren't just talking about "vibes" or "momentum" anymore. Real ballots have been counted in places like Uganda and Maharashtra, and the results are... well, they’re a lot to process.
The Global Scoreboard: Big Wins and Bitter Disputes
Let’s get into the nitty-gritty. In Uganda, the dust is still settling after the January 15th vote. Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, was just declared the winner for a seventh term. He pulled in 71.65% of the vote. His main rival, Bobi Wine, officially got 24.7%, but he’s calling the whole thing a "fake result" amid an internet blackout and reports of raids. It's a mess.
Then you’ve got Portugal. They just held their presidential election on January 18th. It looks like it’s heading to a runoff because nobody hit that magic 50% mark. António José Seguro is leading the pack with about 30.7%, followed by André Ventura from the Chega party at nearly 27%. Basically, Portugal is in for a high-stakes second round.
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Over in India, the Maharashtra civic polls just wrapped up, and the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance basically ran the table. They took control of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which is a huge deal because that’s the richest civic body in the country. The BJP alone bagged 89 seats in Mumbai. It’s a massive signal of which way the wind is blowing in urban India.
A Quick Breakdown of Recent Wins
- Uganda: Yoweri Museveni (NRM) declared winner with 71.6% of the vote.
- Portugal: Runoff triggered between António José Seguro (30.69%) and André Ventura (26.97%).
- Mumbai (BMC): BJP-led Mahayuti alliance secured a majority with 118 seats.
- York, UK: Anna Catherine Perrett (Labour) won the Heworth by-election with 1,096 votes.
Looking at the U.S. Midterms: Who is Winning the Race to November?
In the United States, we’re still in the "pre-game" phase, but the engines are revving. We aren’t voting for the big seats until November 3rd, 2026, but the primary season is right around the corner. Texas is leading the charge with its primary on March 3rd.
If you want to know who is winning the election in terms of the early battle for Congress, you have to look at the fundraising and the redistricting fights. In Wisconsin, Democrats are feeling pretty bullish. They’re eyeing a "trifecta"—taking the governor’s mansion and flipping both chambers of the state legislature. Why? Because the state Supreme Court ordered new district maps that are way more favorable to them than the old ones.
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Mandela Barnes, a big name in Wisconsin politics, has already raised over half a million dollars in just his first month of campaigning. But on the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany has pulled in over $2 million. This tells you two things: people are energized, and this is going to be an incredibly expensive year.
The Polling Reality Check
Early Marist polls suggest a slight edge for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, but honestly, that changes every time a new economic report comes out. People are frustrated. Whether it’s inflation or local infrastructure, the "incumbent disadvantage" is a real thing in 2026.
The "Invisible" Races: Local Power Shifts
Most people ignore the small stuff, but that’s where the real power lives. Take the Heworth by-election in York, UK. Labour’s Anna Catherine Perrett won it comfortably, but the Reform UK candidate came in second, beating out the traditional Conservatives. That’s a huge shift. It shows that smaller, "disruptor" parties are gaining ground.
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In the U.S., special elections in Virginia are also giving us clues. On January 6th, the Senate of Virginia District 15 race was finalized. These tiny data points are like breadcrumbs. They tell us if the base is actually showing up to vote or just complaining on the internet.
What’s Coming Next?
The calendar for February and March is absolutely packed. We’ve got:
- Costa Rica: General elections on February 1st.
- Thailand: A massive referendum and House elections on February 8th.
- Bangladesh: General elections on February 12th—the first since the 2024 uprising.
- Texas & North Carolina: The first major U.S. primaries on March 3rd.
If you’re trying to track who is winning the election in your specific area, the best thing you can do is check your registration right now. In Texas, the deadline to register for the primary is February 2nd. If you miss that, you’re sitting on the sidelines for the most important part of the process.
Actionable Steps for the 2026 Election Season
Don't just watch the results; understand how they're made. Here is what you should actually do to stay ahead of the curve:
- Check Your Deadlines: If you’re in the U.S., go to your Secretary of State’s website. Many states, like North Carolina and Texas, have primary deadlines in early February.
- Look Beyond the Headlines: In international races like Uganda or Myanmar, the "official" winner and the "actual" winner are often two different conversations. Read reporting from local independent outlets to get the full story.
- Track the Money: Follow sites like OpenSecrets or state-level ethics commissions. Usually, the candidate who is winning the "money race" in January and February has a massive advantage when the TV ads start hitting in October.
- Verify Your Polling Place: Local districts change. Especially in 2026, many states are using brand-new maps. Your voting spot from two years ago might not be your spot today.
The political landscape is shifting fast. Whether it's a municipal win in Pune or a presidential runoff in Lisbon, the 2026 election cycle is proving that voters are looking for change—though what that "change" looks like depends entirely on who you ask. Stay informed, keep an eye on the primary dates, and make sure your registration is active before the February deadlines hit.