Honestly, walking into any coffee shop right now feels like stepping into a debate hall. Everyone has an opinion on the fallout. If you're asking who is winning the election right now trump or harris, the answer is actually settled, but the "winning" part depends entirely on which side of the political fence you're standing on in 2026.
Donald Trump is currently the 47th President of the United States. He took the oath on January 20, 2025. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has moved into a role as a prominent critic of the current administration while the Democratic party regroups for the midterms.
The 2024 election wasn't just a close call; it was a shift in the tectonic plates of American politics. Trump didn't just win the Electoral College with 312 votes to Harris’s 226—he actually took the popular vote too. That’s something a Republican hadn't done since 2004. He cleared about 77 million votes. Harris brought in roughly 75 million. It was a decisive outcome that left a lot of pollsters scratching their heads and a lot of voters wondering how the "vibe shift" happened so fast.
Who is winning the election right now trump or harris in the court of public opinion?
Even though the votes are long since counted, the "who is winning" question has morphed. Now, it’s about policy versus popularity. Right now, President Trump is aggressively using executive orders—he signed over 220 in his first year back—to reshape the border and the federal bureaucracy.
Is he winning? If you look at his base, absolutely. They see the "Golden Age" he promised starting to take shape. But if you look at the 2026 midterm polling, things look a bit different. Democrats are actually leading in the "generic ballot" questions for the upcoming congressional races. In some special elections, they’ve been overperforming Harris's 2024 numbers by double digits.
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The Swing State Sweep
It’s wild to think about how all seven major swing states went red. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All of them.
- Pennsylvania: Trump flipped it by about 1.7 points.
- Michigan: A narrower 1.4 point margin.
- Nevada: This was a big one—the first time a Republican won there in two decades.
Harris held onto places like Virginia and New Hampshire, but the margins were thinner than what Biden saw in 2020. In New Jersey, for instance, the gap closed significantly, which signaled that the "blue wall" was a lot more porous than the DNC realized.
Why the 2024 results still matter in 2026
We're currently seeing the practical effects of that victory every day. Trump’s 2026 budget proposal is a massive departure from the previous four years. He's pushing for a $163 billion cut in non-defense spending. He wants to consolidate all federal wildland firefighting into one agency under the Department of the Interior.
While the White House pushes these changes, Kamala Harris and her supporters are focusing on the "Make America Healthy Again" (MAHA) initiatives and the impact of these budget cuts on agencies like the CDC. It's a constant back-and-forth. The administration is cutting the CDC budget by over $3 billion, while also trying to pivot toward Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vision of nutrition and chronic disease reform.
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The Demographic Shift Nobody Saw Coming
The most shocking part of the Trump vs Harris data wasn't the total number of votes. It was who was voting.
Trump made huge gains with Hispanic voters. He reached near parity, getting 48% of that vote compared to Harris's 51%. To put that in perspective, Biden won that group by 25 points. He also doubled his support among Black voters in some areas and significantly improved his standing with Asian American communities.
Harris, on the other hand, maintained a lead with college-educated voters (57% to 41%), but even that lead was smaller than what the Democrats had in 2020. The urban-rural divide just got wider. Trump won rural areas by a staggering 40 points.
What's happening on the ground right now?
Since we're in early 2026, the focus has shifted to the 2026 Midterms. This is where the "who is winning" narrative gets its next chapter.
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- Legislative Battles: Congress is currently wrestling with "minibus" spending packages. President Trump is using his mandate to push for line-by-line cuts, while Democrats are trying to use their remaining leverage to shield agencies like the EPA and NASA.
- Executive Actions: Trump is hitting the "rescission" button on a lot of Biden-era regulations.
- The "MAHA" Factor: There is a weird, bipartisan interest in some of the health reforms being proposed, even as the broader political climate stays incredibly polarized.
Basically, Trump won the office, but the "win" for his agenda is being fought out daily in the halls of Congress and in the early primary states for the midterms.
Actionable Insights for Following the News
If you’re trying to keep track of who is actually gaining ground as we head toward the midterms, don't just look at national polls. They're often misleading.
- Watch the "Generic Ballot": This tells you which party people prefer for Congress. Currently, it's leaning blue, which is typical for a mid-term cycle with a Republican in the White House.
- Monitor Special Elections: These are the "canaries in the coal mine." If a deep-red district suddenly goes purple, it’s a sign of a shift.
- Check the Federal Register: If you want to see what Trump is actually doing (not just what he's saying), look at the executive orders being published. That’s the real paper trail of the administration.
- Follow the Money: Look at the 2026 budget negotiations. The "win" for either side is usually found in which programs get funded and which get the axe.
The 2024 election is over, but the competition between the Trump and Harris visions for the country is just as loud as it was on election night.
Next Steps for You
To stay truly informed, check your local state's voter registration deadlines for the 2026 midterms. Regardless of who won last time, the congressional balance determines how much any president can actually get done. You should also look up the specific impacts of the FY 2026 budget on your state’s federal grants, especially if you work in education or public health.