Honestly, asking "who is winning the election right now percentage" in January 2026 feels a little like asking who won the marathon when the runners are still tying their shoes. We’re ten months out from the midterms. But if you’re looking at the numbers—and the vibe in Washington—things are getting weirdly lopsided.
If you just want the "right now" number: Democrats currently hold a 14-point lead on the generic congressional ballot according to the latest Marist Poll. That’s a massive swing from where we were just a year ago.
The Raw Data: Breaking Down the Percentages
The 2026 landscape is a total 180 from the 2024 presidential results. Back then, things were razor-thin. Now? Not so much. Here is how the generic ballot—the question of "would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress?"—is shakes out across the major polls this month:
- Marist Poll (Jan 2026): Democrats 55%, Republicans 41%.
- YouGov / Economist: Democrats 46%, Republicans 39%.
- Brookings Analysis: Democrats lead 40% to 35% specifically on the issue of handling the economy.
It’s the independent voters who are really driving this. About 45% of Americans now identify as independents, which is a record high. Among that specific group, Democrats have a staggering +33-point advantage. That isn't just a lead; it's a canyon.
Why the Numbers Are Shifting So Fast
You’ve probably noticed the mood has soured. In 2025, the honeymoon phase for the current administration ended pretty abruptly.
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The biggest culprit? Prices. Even though the administration has been pushing tariffs and new trade policies, 57% of Americans say "lowering prices" is their absolute top priority. When the bill at the grocery store stays high, the party in power usually pays the price at the ballot box.
Right now, Donald Trump’s approval rating has dipped to about 36% in the most recent Gallup data. For context, he entered 2025 at 47%. That 11-point slide is weighing down Republican candidates across the country.
The "Cancel the Election" Controversy
We can't talk about these percentages without mentioning the elephant in the room. Recently, the President joked—or "facetiously suggested," according to the White House—that we "shouldn't even have an election" because of how much has been accomplished.
Whether it was a joke or not, the fallout was real. It fired up the Democratic base. If you're wondering why the "who is winning the election right now percentage" is so high for the blue team, it's largely because of "negative partisanship." People aren't necessarily falling in love with Democratic policies; they're reacting to the headlines.
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State-Level Battles: Where the Real Math Happens
National percentages are great for headlines, but they don't actually win elections. We vote in districts.
Cook Political Report just shifted 18 competitive House seats toward the Democrats. Some of these moved from "Lean Republican" all the way to "Toss-up."
- Texas Senate Race: This is the one everyone is watching. James Talarico is currently leading Crockett by 9 points in the Democratic primary, and he's within 3 points of Republican Senator John Cornyn in head-to-head polling.
- Wisconsin Supreme Court: There's a high-stakes judicial election coming up this April. Predictive markets like Kalshi show Chris Taylor with a projected margin of victory between 9% and 12%.
- The House Majority: Right now, Speaker Mike Johnson is working with a tiny two-seat majority. Between attendance issues and special elections, that majority is basically held together by Scotch tape.
The "Safe Seat" Reality
Here is the part that most "who is winning the election right now percentage" articles won't tell you: for most of the country, the election is already over.
FairVote’s "Monopoly Politics" report estimates that about 81% of the 2026 House seats are already decided. Because of how districts are drawn, 352 out of 435 seats are considered "safe." That means the entire fight for control of the U.S. government is happening in only about 38 "true toss-up" races.
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If the 14-point Democratic lead holds, we aren't just looking at a narrow win; we’re looking at a wave. But—and this is a big "but"—if the economy improves or the GOP manages to shift the focus back to immigration (which is still a winning issue for them with 34% of their base), those percentages could tighten up by summertime.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Polls
Don't mistake "leading in the polls" for "winning the election."
A lot can happen in ten months. In 2022, everyone expected a "Red Wave" that ended up being a "Pink Ripple." In 2024, the polls suggested a dead heat, but the Electoral College told a different story.
Current percentages are a snapshot of frustration, not a final result.
Actionable Next Steps: How to Track This Yourself
If you want to stay ahead of the curve as these numbers shift, don't just look at the national "who is winning the election right now percentage." It’s too broad. Instead:
- Watch the Generic Ballot: Check the FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics averages once a month. If the gap stays above 5 points, the incumbent party is in serious trouble.
- Monitor Special Elections: These are the "canaries in the coal mine." If Democrats start over-performing in deep-red districts (like we saw in some 2025 local races), it’s a sign of a high-turnout environment.
- Follow Non-Partisan Analysts: Keep an eye on the Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball. They ignore the "he-said-she-said" and look at the actual demographics and fundraising numbers.
Right now, the momentum is clearly with the Democrats, but 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most volatile years in recent political history. Keep your eyes on the "Independent" percentage—that's where the real winner will be decided.