Pennsylvania is always the center of the political universe, isn't it? If you're looking at a map of the United States, that rectangular block in the Northeast basically decides who gets the keys to the White House. Honestly, it’s a lot of pressure for a state famous for snack foods and rocky terrain. Right now, everyone is asking the same thing: who is winning the election in Pennsylvania, especially after the massive shifts we saw in late 2024?
To understand where we are today, in early 2026, we have to look at the dust that's still settling from the last presidential cycle. Donald Trump didn't just win Pennsylvania in 2024; he flipped it. He took 50.4% of the vote compared to Kamala Harris's 48.7%. That 1.7% margin might look small on paper, but in the world of PA politics, it was a landslide. It was the first time a Republican topped 50% in the state since 1988.
But here’s the kicker. While the GOP is currently riding high on that presidential win, the state’s actual "leadership" is a messy, divided house.
The Current State of Power in Harrisburg
If you walked into the state capitol today, you’d see a government split right down the middle. We have a Democratic Governor, Josh Shapiro, who just launched his reelection bid for 2026. Then you have a state legislature where the Democrats hold the House by a single seat, and Republicans control the Senate. It’s a recipe for a lot of yelling and not a lot of easy lawmaking.
When people ask who is winning the election in Pennsylvania, they’re usually looking for a simple answer. There isn't one. The 2024 results gave Republicans the U.S. Senate seat—Dave McCormick ousted longtime incumbent Bob Casey—and control of the state's row offices like Attorney General and Treasurer.
📖 Related: Typhoon Tip and the Largest Hurricane on Record: Why Size Actually Matters
Why the 2024 Results Changed Everything
For years, the "Blue Wall" was the Democrats' insurance policy. In 2024, that wall didn't just crack; it basically crumbled in places like Erie and Bucks County.
- Donald Trump (GOP): 3,543,308 votes (50.4%)
- Kamala Harris (Dem): 3,423,042 votes (48.7%)
- The Margin: Roughly 120,000 votes.
That's a lot of people. Trump's win was fueled by massive turnout in rural counties and significant gains in white, blue-collar areas that used to be solidly Democratic. Even in Philadelphia, the Democratic stronghold, the margins narrowed. You've gotta wonder if that's a permanent shift or just a one-time reaction to the national economy.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Midterms
We are officially in a midterm year. This is where things get really interesting. Historically, the party that holds the White House (currently the Republicans) struggles in the midterms. It’s like a biological law of American politics.
Josh Shapiro is currently the most popular politician in the state. He won his first term by 14 points, and even though Trump won the state in 2024, Shapiro’s approval ratings stayed high. He’s basically the Democrats' best hope for a "vibes" shift. He’s running against Stacy Garrity, the Republican State Treasurer, who has already been endorsed by the state GOP.
👉 See also: Melissa Calhoun Satellite High Teacher Dismissal: What Really Happened
The Battleground Districts to Watch
Who is winning the election in Pennsylvania in 2026 will likely come down to these specific areas:
- The Lehigh Valley: Places like Allentown and Bethlehem are the ultimate swing zones. If you win here, you usually win the state.
- The "L" Counties: Lackawanna and Luzerne. This is Scranton territory. If Democrats can't claw back votes here, they're in trouble.
- The Suburbs: Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester. These used to be Republican, then went heavily Democratic, and now they're starting to wobble again.
Is the GOP Momentum Sustainable?
Republicans currently hold 10 of Pennsylvania's 17 U.S. House seats. That’s a big deal. They also hold the majority in the State Senate, a position they've maintained for about 30 years.
But Democrats aren't exactly rolling over. They managed to keep control of the State House in 2024 despite the Trump wave. It’s a one-seat majority—102 to 101. Basically, if one person gets a cold and misses a vote, the whole agenda stops.
The "Shapiro Factor"
Josh Shapiro has about $30 million in his campaign chest right now. That is a record for a PA governor. He’s betting that he can pull other Democrats across the finish line with him. He’s already talking about a "trifecta"—winning the Governor's office, the State House, and flipping the State Senate.
✨ Don't miss: Wisconsin Judicial Elections 2025: Why This Race Broke Every Record
Honestly, flipping the State Senate is a tall order. Republicans have a 27-23 lead there. To flip it, Democrats need to pick up three seats (since Lt. Gov. Austin Davis holds the tie-breaking vote).
Real Issues Driving the Vote
Why does any of this matter to you? Because the people who win these elections decide the stuff that actually hits your wallet.
- Fracking: It’s the elephant in the room. Pennsylvania is the second-largest natural gas producer in the country. Any candidate who even whispers about banning it is basically toast in Western PA.
- Minimum Wage: PA is still at $7.25. Every neighboring state is higher. This is a massive talking point for Shapiro and the House Democrats.
- School Funding: Following a court ruling that the state's funding system is unconstitutional, billions of dollars are at stake.
What Most People Get Wrong About PA Elections
People think Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are the only places that matter. Wrong. The "T"—the vast middle of the state—is where the 2024 election was won. Trump ran up the score in places like York, Lancaster, and Westmoreland so high that Philly couldn't make up the difference.
Another misconception? That Pennsylvania is "turning red." It’s more like it’s "turning purple-ish." We have a Democratic Governor and a Republican-led Senate. We have one Democratic U.S. Senator (John Fetterman) and one Republican (Dave McCormick). It's a tug-of-war where neither side has enough grip to end the game.
Actionable Steps for PA Voters in 2026
If you want to have a say in who is winning the election in Pennsylvania, you can't just wait for November. The machinery is moving right now.
- Check Your Registration: Pennsylvania has "closed" primaries. If you want to vote in the May 19, 2026, primary for Governor or Legislature, you have to be registered as a Democrat or Republican. You can't be "Independent" and vote in those specific races.
- Track the Money: Follow sites like Spotlight PA or the Department of State’s campaign finance portal. Money doesn't always buy wins, but it's a great indicator of which races the national parties think are actually winnable.
- Look at Local Candidates: Everyone focuses on the Governor, but those 203 State House seats are where the actual laws (like your property taxes or local road repairs) get decided.
- Request Mail-In Ballots Early: PA has "no-excuse" mail-in voting. If you don't want to stand in line in November, you can sign up to have a ballot sent to you automatically every year.
The 2026 cycle is going to be a slugfest. With a popular Democratic incumbent at the top and a Republican party fresh off a 2024 sweep of the state's electoral votes, Pennsylvania remains the ultimate political coin flip. Whoever wins will likely set the tone for the 2028 presidential race, making every single vote in the Keystone State a piece of national history.