It is mid-January 2026. If you're looking for a simple scoreboard, you won't find one. This war has stopped being a series of blitzes and has turned into a grinding, industrial nightmare that is bleeding both sides dry in ways we haven't seen since the 1940s.
So, who is winning Russia or Ukraine right now?
Honestly, the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at a map, a bank statement, or a casualty list. If "winning" means taking land, Russia has the edge. If "winning" means surviving an existential threat and keeping your sovereignty while the world's biggest economy keeps you on life support, then Ukraine is holding its own.
The Map Tells a Brutal Story
Let’s look at the dirt. As of January 13, 2026, Russia occupies about 19.26% of Ukraine. That is roughly 116,250 square kilometers. To put that in perspective for Americans, that’s about the size of Ohio.
Russia had a busy 2025. They captured more territory last year—roughly 2,171 square miles—than they did in 2023 and 2024 combined. They’ve been pushing hard in the Donbas, specifically around places like Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. General Valery Gerasimov recently claimed Russian forces controlled over 30% of Myrnohrad’s buildings. It's a slow, agonizing crawl.
But it’s not a collapse.
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Ukraine has spent the last year building what The Economist calls a "fortress belt." These are massive, layered fortifications—anti-tank ditches, razor wire, and concrete "dragon's teeth"—that go back 200 meters in depth. Basically, Ukraine has turned the front into a giant kill zone. Russia is gaining ground, sure, but they are paying for every inch with a staggering number of bodies and burned-out tanks.
The Human Cost is Mind-Bending
The numbers coming out right now are hard to stomach. In an interview with the Financial Times this month, former CIA Director William Burns estimated Russian casualties have hit 1.1 million people.
1.1 million.
That includes killed and wounded. For context, that is more than the population of some small countries. Ukraine’s losses are lower but still devastating, with estimates around 400,000 killed or injured.
The Winter of the Drone
Right now, the sky over Ukraine is thick with robots. Russia has tripled its drone production. In December 2025 alone, they launched over 5,600 drones. They are targeting the power grid. It’s a deliberate strategy: freeze the civilians until the government breaks.
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Earlier this month, a massive strike on January 13 saw 293 drones and 18 missiles hit Kyiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia. Temperatures dropped to -15°C. Hundreds of thousands of people in the Kyiv region lost power. It’s miserable.
However, Ukraine’s "Octopus" interceptor drones and improved Western air defense have become surprisingly good. They are now knocking down about 82% of incoming drones. That’s a huge jump from a year ago when they were lucky to get half.
What’s Happening With the Money?
Money is the fuel for this whole mess.
Ukraine is basically an EU-funded state at this point. Just a few days ago, on January 14, the European Commission proposed a fresh €90 billion support package for 2026 and 2027. Two-thirds of that is straight military aid.
On the other side, Russia is in a "war economy." They are spending massive amounts of state cash on factories making shells and missiles. While the West thought Sanctions would kill the Russian economy, it’s actually grown by about 8% since 2022. But it's a hollow growth. They have high inflation and a massive budget deficit. They are surviving because China, Iran, and North Korea are keeping the lights on.
Who is Winning Russia or Ukraine Right Now: The Expert Consensus
Most analysts, including those at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and CSIS, argue that we are in a "deadlock of attrition."
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- Russia’s Logic: They believe they can outlast the West. They think if they just keep throwing meat into the grinder, eventually the US and Europe will get bored or go broke.
- Ukraine’s Logic: They are playing for time. They’ve even floated the idea of dropping NATO aspirations recently just to get a ceasefire that freezes the lines.
There’s a weird shift in the air lately. For the first time, peace talks aren't a taboo subject. About 66% of Russians say they support negotiations. In Ukraine, 72% would approve a plan that freezes the front lines—if they get solid security guarantees from the West.
France and the UK have already pledged to send troops to monitor a "post-war Ukraine" if a deal is reached. That’s a massive change in tone.
The Bottom Line
If you define winning by territory, Russia is winning.
If you define winning by strategic goals, Russia has failed. They wanted Kyiv in three days; four years later, they’re fighting over ruins in the Donbas.
If you define winning by survival, Ukraine is winning, but they are exhausted.
Actionable Insights for Staying Informed
The situation changes weekly. To get the real story on who is winning Russia or Ukraine right now, don't just look at the headlines.
- Watch the Energy Grid: The real battle this month isn't for a village; it's for the transformers. If Ukraine’s grid holds through February, Russia's winter offensive has effectively failed.
- Monitor the "Coalition of the Willing": Keep an eye on France and the UK. Their January 6 declaration to put boots on the ground for ceasefire monitoring is the most significant diplomatic shift in a year.
- Check the DeepState Map: This OSINT group provides the most accurate, granular look at the front lines. If you see Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia nearing the 7km mark from the capital, that’s a major red flag.
- Follow the Replacement of Officials: President Zelenskyy just put Mykhailo Fedorov in as Defense Minister on January 14. This signals a shift toward a 100% tech-driven, drone-first military strategy to compensate for a lack of manpower.
The war has reached a point where "victory" is no longer a parade in a capital city. It’s about who runs out of money, hardware, or people first. Right now, both sides are still standing, but they are both leaning heavily against the ropes.
To keep track of the tactical shifts, monitor the Institute for the Study of War's daily assessments, which currently highlight Russian attempts to portray minor border raids in Sumy as major new offensives. Distinguishing between these "psychological operations" and actual territorial shifts is key to understanding the reality of the front.