We’re sitting right in the teeth of January 2026, and if you haven’t been paying attention, the NFL landscape just got nuked. The Kansas City Chiefs are gone. For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Kingdom is quiet in January. Honestly, it feels weird. It’s like watching a movie where the main character gets written out in the first ten minutes.
But while the dynasty is on hiatus, eight teams are still alive, and everyone wants to know who is winning in the NFL right now. If you're looking for the short answer: the Seattle Seahawks are the betting favorites, but momentum is a terrifying drug, and right now, the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears are high on it.
The Wild Card round wasn't just a warm-up. It was a bloodbath. We saw the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles get bounced by a scrappy San Francisco 49ers squad that simply refused to die. We saw the Chicago Bears pull off a miracle, erasing a massive halftime deficit against Green Bay. If you’re trying to figure out who has the edge as we move into the Divisional Round this weekend, you have to look past the win-loss columns.
The NFC Power Pivot: Seattle and the "New" Monsters of the Midway
Seattle is the team to beat. Period. They locked up the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye by suffocating the 49ers in Week 18. That 13–3 win wasn't just a victory; it was a statement. Mike Macdonald has that defense playing like the Legion of Boom 2.0. Riq Woolen is out here playing like a goldfish—short memory, high impact—and the rest of that secondary is following suit.
But don't sleep on the Bears. No, seriously.
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Chicago was down 21–3 at halftime against the Packers last week. They looked cooked. Then they dropped 25 points in the fourth quarter. You don’t just stumble into a 31–27 playoff win like that. It changes the DNA of a locker room. They head to Soldier Field to host the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday, and while the Rams are actually 3.5-point favorites according to the Vegas sharps, the vibe in Chicago is different this year.
The Rams are still dangerous, though. Matthew Stafford is basically a cyborg at this point. He survived a 34–31 shootout against the Panthers in the Wild Card, proving that even when the Rams' defense leaks, he can just out-gun whoever is on the other side.
AFC Chaos: Can Anyone Actually Stop Denver?
Over in the AFC, the Denver Broncos are sitting pretty at 14–3 with the No. 1 seed. They haven't played a game in two weeks, which is either a blessing for their bruised ribs or a curse for their rhythm. They host the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, and the narrative here is basically "Unstoppable Force vs. Immovable Object."
Buffalo just squeaked past Jacksonville 27–24. Josh Allen did Josh Allen things—some incredible, some "why did you throw that?"—but a win is a win. The Bills' Super Bowl odds jumped significantly after that victory, moving from +1000 to around +650. People are starting to believe that this might finally be the year the Bills Mafia gets their parade.
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Then you’ve got the New England Patriots. Yeah, they’re back.
The post-Belichick era had some rough years, but finishing 14–3 and shutting down the Chargers 16–3 in the Wild Card round shows they’re legitimate contenders again. They’re hosting the Houston Texans on Sunday. Speaking of Houston, they absolutely dismantled the Steelers 30–6. It wasn’t even a contest. If you’re looking for a "dark horse" who isn't really a dark horse anymore, it’s C.J. Stroud and that Texans offense. They have the momentum of a freight train.
Who the Odds Favor Right Now
If you’re looking at the betting board as of January 16, 2026, here is how the landscape shakes out for the remaining eight:
- Seattle Seahawks (+270): The heavy favorites. Home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs is massive.
- Los Angeles Rams (+320): High respect from Vegas despite being a wild card team.
- New England Patriots (+600): Defensive masterclass specialists.
- Buffalo Bills (+650): The perennial "almost" team looking for a breakthrough.
- Denver Broncos (+700): Interestingly low for a 1-seed, mostly because critics wonder if they're "battle-tested" enough.
- Houston Texans (+850): The team nobody wants to play right now.
- Chicago Bears (+1600): The ultimate "heart" pick after that Packers comeback.
- San Francisco 49ers (+2000): They're the No. 6 seed, they're banged up, and they're missing George Kittle. But they’re the 49ers.
What to Watch for This Weekend
This is where the season actually starts. The Divisional Round is historically where the "pretenders" get sorted from the "contenders."
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Keep an eye on the weather in Foxborough for the Texans-Patriots game. There’s talk of snow and freezing temps. That usually favors the home team, but the Texans showed last week they can play physical, grind-it-out football.
Also, the 49ers are heading into Seattle for a Saturday night clash. This is a rivalry that usually ends in a few broken bones and a lot of trash talk. San Francisco already lost to Seattle in Week 18, and doing it twice in a row at Lumen Field is a tall order, especially without Kittle to bail out the offense on third downs.
Honestly, the league feels wide open. Without the Chiefs looming like a final boss, every single one of these eight teams feels like they have a legitimate path to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara.
Next Steps for Your Playoff Weekend:
To stay ahead of the curve, check the final injury reports on Saturday morning, specifically for the 49ers' pass catchers and the Broncos' offensive line. If Denver's protection holds up against Buffalo's front four, they’re likely headed to the AFC Championship. Also, keep an eye on the line movement for the Rams-Bears game; if the spread drops below 3, it means the public is piling onto Chicago's momentum. Plan your viewing around the Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff—it's going to be a long, wild weekend.