Nevada isn't a state you can just "read" from a distance. If you look at the 2024 maps, you see a sea of red with two tiny islands of blue. But those islands—Clark and Washoe—are where everyone lives. Honestly, the question of who is winning in Nevada depends entirely on whether you're looking at the person in the White House or the people running the show in Carson City. It's a weird, split-personality kind of place.
Donald Trump pulled off something last November that a Republican hadn't done since George W. Bush in 2004. He won. He didn't just win; he flipped the state by about 3.1 percentage points, clocking in with 50.6% of the vote against Kamala Harris’s 47.5%. For a state that had been "reliably blue" for four straight presidential cycles, it felt like a tectonic shift. But if you think that means the GOP has a total lock on the state now, you haven't been paying attention to the ticket-splitting.
The split-ticket reality: Who is winning in Nevada right now?
While Trump was busy taking the state's six electoral votes, Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen was busy keeping her seat. She beat Sam Brown by about 24,000 votes. That's a 1.7% margin. Think about that for a second. Thousands of Nevadans walked into a voting booth, picked Donald Trump for President, and then immediately picked a Democrat for Senate.
This isn't just a fluke. It's the "Nevada Way."
Voters here are notoriously independent-minded. They aren't loyal to a brand; they’re loyal to whoever they think is actually going to handle their specific problems. In 2026, this dynamic is going to get even messier. Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican who knows how to walk the tightrope of a blue-leaning legislature, is heading into a reelection year.
Current polling from late 2025 shows Lombardo in a dead heat. He’s sitting around 41% against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, who’s also at 41%.
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The fact that nearly 20% of the state is still "undecided" tells you everything you need to know. Nobody is "winning" yet. They’re just surviving.
The registration earthquake
For decades, the "Reid Machine"—named after the late Harry Reid—kept Democrats in a comfortable registration lead. That's over. As of early 2026, Republicans have actually overtaken Democrats in raw registration numbers. It’s a slim lead, just a few thousand people, but the symbolism is huge.
The real story? Nonpartisans.
Independent voters are now the largest group in the state. There are nearly 200,000 more nonpartisan voters than there are Republicans or Democrats. This makes polling a nightmare. If you want to know who is winning in Nevada, you have to figure out what those 200,000 people are thinking. Right now, they’re mostly thinking about their rent.
The economy of the "No Tax on Tips" state
Nevada’s economy is a beast of its own. We’re talkin' about a state where the service industry is the spine of the entire culture. When Trump started talking about "No Tax on Tips" at a rally in Las Vegas, it wasn't just a slogan. It was a targeted strike. Even though Harris eventually adopted the same position, the GOP grabbed the narrative first.
Housing affordability is the other giant in the room. In 2025, it ranked as the second most important issue behind the general economy.
Prices in Las Vegas and Reno have stayed stubbornly high, and while Governor Lombardo has pushed for the release of more federal land for housing, the Democratic-controlled legislature has different ideas on how to fix the supply. This friction defines the current political climate. It’s a constant tug-of-war where neither side gets exactly what they want, but everyone gets blamed when things go south.
Key Players in the 2026 Shuffle:
- Joe Lombardo (R): The incumbent Governor. He’s got high marks from Republicans (66% approval) but is struggling to win over the Democratic base. He’s the personification of the GOP’s attempt to hold the middle.
- Aaron Ford (D): The Attorney General. He’s the most likely challenger. He has a 16-point lead among Hispanic voters, a demographic that shifted toward Trump in 2024 but remains a battleground.
- Jacky Rosen & Catherine Cortez Masto (D): Both Senators are currently "underwater" in approval ratings according to Emerson College. It’s a warning sign that the Democratic base is feeling a bit fractured.
Why 2026 feels different
The DNC just dropped a seven-figure investment into Nevada for 2026. They call it the "When We Count" program. It’s a massive attempt to register non-college youth and Latino voters who sat out or switched sides in the last cycle.
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They’re scared. They should be.
When you lose the registration lead you've held since 2007, you don't just "stay the course." You pivot. The GOP, meanwhile, is trying to prove that 2024 wasn't a one-off. They’re betting that the economic frustration that fueled Trump’s win will carry over to state-level races.
If you’re looking for a clear winner, look at the "None of These Candidates" option on the ballot. It’s a unique Nevada feature. In a close race, the people who hate both choices can actually influence the outcome by picking the "none" option. It garnered over 19,000 votes in the 2024 presidential race. In a state decided by thin margins, that's a kingmaker.
Actionable insights for following Nevada politics
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on who is winning in Nevada, stop looking at national trends. They don't apply here.
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- Watch the "Indy" voter registration numbers. Every month, the Secretary of State updates these. If nonpartisans keep growing at the current rate, they will dictate every election for the next decade.
- Follow the Culinary Union. Local 226 is the most powerful political force in the state. If they aren't fully mobilized for a candidate, that candidate is in trouble.
- Keep an eye on Washoe County. Clark (Vegas) is blue. The "Cow Counties" are red. Washoe (Reno) is the literal hinge of the state. Whoever wins Washoe usually wins the state.
- Monitor the housing market data. Nevada’s political mood is directly tied to the price of a three-bedroom house in Henderson. If prices don't stabilize by mid-2026, incumbents on both sides will feel the heat.
The Silver State is a coin flip that never seems to land. Right now, the GOP has the momentum of the 2024 win, but the Democrats have the infrastructure and a desperate need to reclaim their territory. It’s going to be a long, expensive year for anyone with a TV in Las Vegas.