It is mid-January 2026. The engines are still cold. Most of the Cup Series drivers are currently playing in the dirt at the Chili Bowl in Tulsa rather than trading paint on a superspeedway. But if you’re asking who is winning in NASCAR right now, the answer isn’t found on a live leaderboard. It’s found in the trophy case of Kyle Larson.
Larson is officially the man to beat. He enters the 2026 season as the defending Cup Series champion, having snatched his second title in a chaotic, strategy-heavy finale at Phoenix last November.
Honestly, the way he won was a bit of a heartbreaker for Denny Hamlin. Hamlin dominated that race, leading 208 laps, but a late caution and a two-tire pit stop gamble by Larson’s crew chief, Cliff Daniels, flipped the script. Larson didn’t lead a single lap until it counted—the very last ones.
The Dominance of Kyle Larson and Hendrick Motorsports
When you look at the raw data, it’s hard to argue against the No. 5 team. Larson has been a vacuum for trophies lately. Between 2021 and 2025, he stacked up 26 wins. That’s a staggering number in the "Next Gen" era where parity is supposed to be the law of the land.
But here is what most people get wrong about who is winning in NASCAR: it’s not just about the fastest car. It’s about surviving the format.
In 2025, William Byron actually looked like the statistical king for most of the year. He won his second straight Daytona 500 and bagged the Regular Season Championship. Yet, when the dust settled in Phoenix, he was watching Larson celebrate. Hendrick Motorsports as a whole is winning the "shop war," but Larson is the one consistently delivering the knockout punch.
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The 2026 Landscape: Who’s Gaining Ground?
We aren't just looking at the old guard anymore. There’s a massive shift happening under the hood for 2026.
- Christopher Bell: He’s currently the "winningest" driver of the off-season. He just dominated the O'Reilly Auto Parts Race of Champions and is tearing through the Chili Bowl prelims. Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) is leaning heavily on him to be their anchor now that the 2025 season saw them fall just short.
- Denny Hamlin: Is he still winning? Yes and no. He had six wins last year—the most of any driver. But the "big one" still eludes him. He heads into 2026 as a co-favorite, but the clock is ticking louder than ever.
- Ryan Blaney: The 2023 champ proved 2025 wasn't a fluke by winning four races, including a walk-off victory at the penultimate race to show he’s still the top dog at Team Penske.
The New Rules: A Shift in the Winning Formula
NASCAR just dropped a bombshell for the 2026 season that changes how we define "winning." They’ve officially overhauled the playoff format.
Gone is the pure "win-and-you're-in" chaos that defined the last decade. The new 2026 format, which many are calling a return to a "Chase-style" 10-race stretch, places a massive premium on consistency.
There is also a weird new "Fastest Lap" rule. One point will be awarded to the driver who records the fastest single lap during a race. It sounds small, but in a series where championships are decided by a single point, this is huge. If you’re a mid-pack team like Spire Motorsports or the newly rebranded Hyak Motorsports, hunting for that one fastest lap might be your only way to stay relevant in the standings.
The "Silly Season" Winners
Winning isn't always about the checkered flag; sometimes it's about the off-season hustle.
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Trackhouse Racing is the biggest winner in the talent department. They managed to land 19-year-old phenom Connor Zilisch for the No. 88 car. People in the garage are calling him the next Jeff Gordon. If he lives up to half the hype, the "who is winning" conversation is going to get very young, very fast.
Meanwhile, Richard Childress Racing (RCR) is trying to fix a sinking ship. Kyle Busch had a nightmare 2025, finishing 21st in points and missing the playoffs entirely. For 2026, they’ve paired him with a new crew chief, Jim Pohlman. If Busch starts winning again, it’ll be because RCR finally stopped the bleeding in their engineering department.
Predicting the 2026 Opener
The Daytona 500 is just weeks away. If you want to know who is winning in NASCAR on the superspeedways, keep your eyes on the Fords.
Brad Keselowski and the RFK Racing camp have mastered the drafting game. Even though they missed the 2025 playoffs, they were the "best of the rest," finishing 17th and 18th. With a new third car (the No. 60 for Ryan Preece), they have more drafting partners to control the front of the pack.
Key Drivers to Watch Right Now:
- Kyle Larson: The gold standard.
- William Byron: The most consistent across 36 races.
- Christopher Bell: The hottest driver in the JGR stable.
- Bubba Wallace: Coming off his best season yet and a Brickyard 400 win.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re tracking the standings or looking at the 2026 season preview, don't just look at the win column.
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Focus on Average Finish. Under the new 2026 rules, a driver who finishes 5th every week is going to be much more dangerous than a driver who wins once and crashes three times.
Keep an eye on the manufacturer shifts too. Haas Factory Team and Rick Ware Racing have jumped ship from Ford to Chevrolet. This gives Chevy a massive numbers advantage on the track, which usually translates to better data sharing and, ultimately, more wins.
The 2026 season kicks off officially at the Clash and then the Daytona 500 on February 15. Until then, Kyle Larson is the king, but the throne has never looked more crowded.
To stay ahead of the curve, track the early-season practice speeds at Daytona. Pay close attention to the Toyota camp—specifically the 23XI Racing team. Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick have shown they can out-qualify anyone, and with the new fastest lap point on the line, they are primed to exploit the 2026 rulebook for every possible advantage.