Iowa used to be the center of the political universe every four years. You know the drill: candidates eating fried butter at the State Fair, frantic caucus-goers in high school gyms, and a metric ton of corn-themed photo ops. But as we kick off 2026, the question of who is winning in Iowa has shifted from the "first-in-the-nation" presidential hype to a massive, messy, and surprisingly wide-open battle for the state's own future.
Honestly, the "red wave" that turned Iowa into a GOP stronghold over the last decade is facing its first real stress test. For the first time in generations, the state is dealing with a power vacuum at the top.
The End of the Reynolds Era
Governor Kim Reynolds basically redefined Iowa politics. She wasn't just a governor; she was the face of the state's hard-right turn. But last April, she dropped a bombshell by announcing she wouldn't seek another term in 2026.
This changes everything.
Without an incumbent, the Republican primary has turned into a bit of a free-for-all. Right now, if you’re looking at who has the early edge, Randy Feenstra is a name you’ll hear constantly. He’s currently a U.S. Representative for the 4th District, and he’s got the fundraising muscle that makes other candidates nervous. But he isn't alone. You've got Adam Steen, the former DAS director, and State Rep. Eddie Andrews also in the mix.
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It’s a "spirited" primary, which is a polite political term for "probably going to get expensive and loud."
Can a Democrat Actually Win Statewide?
If you asked this two years ago, most people would have laughed. Iowa has been deep red. But the "who is winning in Iowa" conversation has a surprising wildcard: Rob Sand.
Sand is the State Auditor and, notably, the only Democrat holding a statewide office right now. He’s built a brand on being the "taxpayer's watchdog," focusing on government waste rather than partisan culture wars. He's officially running for Governor, and he’s the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
What makes Sand interesting isn't just his party—it's his strategy. He’s spent years visiting all 99 counties, even the ones where Democrats usually get crushed. Whether that "retail politics" can overcome the massive GOP registration advantage in the state is the million-dollar question.
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The Battle for the Open Senate Seat
As if a wide-open Governor’s race wasn't enough, Senator Joni Ernst decided not to seek a third term. This is huge. Iowa hasn’t had an open Governor seat and an open Senate seat in the same cycle since 1968.
On the Republican side, Ashley Hinson is widely considered the person to beat. She’s a former news anchor and current Congresswoman who has been incredibly effective at building a "common-sense conservative" brand. Most insiders expect her to cruise through the primary.
Democrats are desperate to flip this seat. They see it as one of the four they need to take back the U.S. Senate. However, the path is narrow. While independent voters have been drifting slightly back toward Democrats in recent Gallup polls, the "Trump effect" still looms large in Iowa. Trump won the state by double digits in 2024, and his endorsement still carries the weight of law in GOP circles.
What the Polls Are (and Aren't) Telling Us
We have to talk about the "Selzer factor." For years, J. Ann Selzer was the gold standard of polling—not just in Iowa, but in the country. She retired last year, leaving a massive hole in how we understand what Iowans are actually thinking.
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Current polling is... thin.
- The Economy: This is the big one. While national numbers might look okay on paper, Iowans are feeling the squeeze of "cost of living" increases.
- Education: Iowa recently moved toward a universal school choice program. It’s popular with the GOP base but has sparked serious pushback in rural areas where the local public school is the heart of the community.
- Healthcare: We’re seeing a weird trend where moderate Republicans are occasionally breaking ranks with their party to protect ACA-style subsidies.
Why the "Undercurrents" Matter
It’s easy to look at the registration numbers and say, "Republicans are winning." And on paper, they are. They have a trifecta (control of the House, Senate, and Governor’s office).
But look at the special elections. Over the last year, Democrats have been overperforming their 2024 margins in Iowa special elections—sometimes by 20 points. Does that mean the state is turning blue? Probably not. But it does suggest that the GOP "supermajority" might have overreached on certain policies, creating an opening for a more centrist or "fixer" type of candidate.
Real-World Takeaways for 2026
If you're trying to figure out who is winning in Iowa, stop looking at the 2024 presidential map. That's old news. Instead, watch these three things:
- Fundraising Totals: In a state without an incumbent governor, money talks. Watch the Q1 reports for Feenstra and Sand. If Sand can keep pace with the GOP machine, we have a real race.
- The "Rural Revolt" Factor: Keep an eye on how rural voters talk about school vouchers. If that issue starts to bleed GOP support in small towns, the Republicans’ "safe" seats aren't so safe anymore.
- The Hinson Momentum: If Ashley Hinson clears her primary without a major fight, she can spend her entire war chest targeting the middle-of-the-road voters in the Des Moines suburbs.
The reality of Iowa in 2026 is that it's no longer a "predictable" red state. It’s a state in transition. The "winning" side will be the one that stops talking about national grievances and starts talking about why the price of a gallon of milk is 25% higher than it was two years ago.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the Filing Deadlines: The official list of candidates for the June 2nd primary won't be finalized until mid-March. Watch the Iowa Secretary of State’s website during the February 23 – March 13 window to see which "stealth candidates" actually put their names on the ballot.
- Monitor the 2nd Congressional District: With Hinson moving to a Senate run, her House seat is wide open. This is arguably the most competitive "swing" district in the state and will be a bellwether for the November general election.
- Follow Local Journalists: Since the Des Moines Register's "Iowa Poll" era has changed, look to local outlets like the Iowa Capital Dispatch and Radio Iowa for boots-on-the-ground reporting that national outlets often miss.