When it comes to presidential elections, California is usually the most predictable piece of the puzzle. Everyone basically assumes it’s going to be a massive blue landslide and moves on to stressing about Pennsylvania or Michigan. But honestly, looking at the final, certified numbers for the 2024 race, things got a lot more interesting than the standard "California stays blue" headline.
If you're asking who is winning in California for president 2024, the official answer is Vice President Kamala Harris. She locked down the state’s 54 electoral votes, which is the biggest prize in the country. However, saying she won doesn't quite capture the full vibe of what actually happened at the ballot box. While Harris took 58.5% of the vote, that’s actually the lowest percentage a Democrat has pulled in the Golden State in twenty years.
Compare that to 2020. Joe Biden won California by nearly 30 points. Harris won by about 20. That’s a 10-point swing in a state that people think is permanently deep blue. Donald Trump didn't win the state—far from it—but he definitely made some noise by grabbing 38.3% of the vote. That’s over 6 million people. It turns out, California has more Trump voters than any other state in the Union, simply because our population is so massive.
How the Map Flipped and Shifted
The big story isn't just the total number of votes; it’s where they came from. If you look at a county map, it’s not just a sea of blue anymore. Several counties that went for Biden in 2020 actually flipped back to Trump this time around.
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Riverside and San Bernardino are the big ones people keep talking about. These are massive, growing areas in the Inland Empire where families are moving to escape the insane prices of LA and Orange County. Trump narrowly won Riverside with 49.3% and San Bernardino with 49.7%. It wasn’t a blowout, but it was a "red flip" in a region that used to be solidly purple.
The Central Valley and Coastal Bubbles
Fresno County also moved back into the GOP column. You’ve got this weird dynamic where the "Coastal California" you see on TV—San Francisco and West LA—is still voting 80% Democrat, but the "Inland California" that grows the country's food is feeling very differently.
- San Francisco: Harris crushed it here with 80.3% of the vote.
- Alameda (Oakland): Another stronghold at 74.6% for Harris.
- Orange County: This one was tight. Harris took it with 49.7% to Trump’s 47.1%. It’s definitely not the "Reagan Country" it used to be, but it’s not exactly a liberal utopia either.
Why Did the Margin Shrink?
So, if Harris is the one who is winning in California for president 2024, why did she lose ground? Most experts, like those at the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), point to two things: the economy and a massive drop in turnout.
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Inflation isn't just a buzzword in California; it's a daily crisis. Gas is five bucks a gallon, and rent for a two-bedroom in San Diego can eat up a whole paycheck. A lot of voters who traditionally lean Democrat either stayed home or decided to "vote for change" because they felt like the current administration wasn't fixing their bank accounts.
Then there's the turnout issue. According to the Secretary of State, about 16.1 million Californians voted. That sounds like a lot, but it’s actually over a million fewer people than showed up in 2020. Specifically, Latino and youth turnout took a big hit. In some counties, the turnout among registered voters dropped by nearly 10%. When Democrats lose their base's enthusiasm, the margins start to shrink, even in a safe state.
The Role of Third Parties
Third-party candidates always get a bit of a boost in California because people feel like their vote "doesn't matter" as much in a non-battleground state. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (running under the American Independent Party in CA) pulled about 1.3%, and Jill Stein of the Green Party got 1.1%.
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While those numbers seem small, they represented hundreds of thousands of voters who were looking for something besides the two main options. In a state where Harris won by millions, these third-party votes didn't change the outcome, but they signaled a sort of "protest vibe" that was present across the country.
What This Means for the Future
Does this mean California is becoming a "swing state"? Probably not anytime soon. The Democrats still have a 20-point registration advantage. But the 2024 results showed that there’s a limit to how much Californians will tolerate high costs before they start looking at the other side.
The fact that Proposition 36—a measure to increase penalties for theft and drug crimes—passed with a massive 68.4% of the vote shows that even "blue" voters are leaning more conservative on certain issues like public safety.
If you’re tracking the final data, the Secretary of State Shirley Weber certified everything in December 2024. The results are set in stone: Harris won the state, but the "Blue Wall" in the West is showing some cracks in the foundation.
What you can do next
To see exactly how your neighborhood voted compared to the rest of the state, you can go to the California Secretary of State’s website and download the "Statement of Vote." It breaks everything down by precinct. If you're interested in the "why," check out the post-election reports from the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC—they have some really deep data on which groups stayed home and why the youth vote shifted.