Politics moves fast, but 2026 is already feeling like a fever dream. If you've been scrolling through news feeds lately, you might think everything is just a continuation of the 2024 chaos. Honestly, it’s not that simple. We’re seeing some weird, specific shifts in power—from the massive municipal shakeups in India to the "red to blue" flips in American statehouses.
People keep asking who is winning elections so far, and the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at local grassroots or global giants. It's basically a tug-of-war between entrenched incumbents and a very frustrated younger generation.
The Massive Shakeup in India's Urban Centers
You’ve gotta look at Maharashtra. Right now, on January 16, 2026, the big news is the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) results. For nearly thirty years, the Shiv Sena—the Uddhav Thackeray faction—had a literal stranglehold on Mumbai. That’s over.
The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance basically walked in and flipped the script. They’ve crossed the majority threshold in the 227-member BMC. This isn’t just some local city council tiff; the BMC budget is bigger than several small countries. We're talking over 60,000 crore rupees ($7 billion-plus).
- BJP Impact: They secured over 90 wards alone.
- The "Shinde" Factor: Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction actually held its ground, which validates his 2022 split from Thackeray in the eyes of many voters.
- The Outsiders: The AIMIM made some annoying—for the big parties—gains in pockets like Bhendi Bazaar, further splintering the opposition vote.
It’s a huge win for Devendra Fadnavis. He managed to consolidate the urban vote while the opposition—the Maha Vikas Aghadi—basically tripped over its own feet.
What’s Actually Happening in the United States?
If you're looking at the U.S., you won't see a presidential map for another two years, but the 2025 "off-year" results were a total gut punch for the GOP. Democrats didn't just win; they kind of ran the table in the few places that mattered.
In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger flipped the governorship from red to blue. That’s a massive deal because it gave Democrats a "trifecta" in the state—meaning they control the governor's mansion and both legislative chambers. They haven't had that kind of power in Virginia for decades.
Then you’ve got New Jersey. Mikie Sherrill kept the governorship for the Democrats. But the real story there was the General Assembly. Democrats flipped five seats, landing their biggest majority since 1973.
Why the 2025 Flips Matter for 2026
There’s this trend where Democrats flipped about 21% of Republican-held state legislative seats that were on the ballot last year. That’s a huge number. It suggests that while Republicans still hold a 53-45 majority in the U.S. Senate (as of the 119th Congress), the "ground game" is shifting.
In special elections, Democrats have been over-performing their 2024 numbers by roughly 13 points. That’s a "hair on fire" moment for Republican strategists. Why? Because 2026 is a midterm year. All 435 House seats are up, along with 33 Senate seats. If this momentum holds, the current GOP 220-215 House majority is on very thin ice.
The Global Strongman Reality
While the U.S. and India are seeing these high-energy shifts, other parts of the world are sticking to the script—for better or worse.
In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni just grabbed another term. Early results from the January 15, 2026, vote show him with about 76% of the tally. His main rival, Bobi Wine, is sitting at around 20% and, according to his party, is basically under house arrest in Kampala.
It’s a stark reminder that in many places, "who is winning" is determined long before the first ballot is actually cast. The UN has already called out the environment as one of "widespread repression."
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Surprising Trends: The "Gen-Z" Factor
Across Africa and parts of the Global South, there's a digitally-networked movement that’s making older politicians sweat. We saw it in Kenya and Tanzania throughout 2025. This isn't just kids on TikTok; it's a coordinated challenge to governance failures.
Even if these movements don't win the "Presidency" today, they are winning the narrative. They're forcing governments to backtrack on taxes and austerity measures. They are winning the "social" election, even if they aren't winning the "ballot" election yet.
A Quick Reality Check on 2026
- Portugal: Presidential elections are happening right now (January 18).
- Costa Rica: General elections are coming up in February.
- The Big One: The U.S. Midterms in November 2026 will be the ultimate "vibe check" for the Trump administration’s second term.
The Bottom Line
So, who is winning elections so far?
In terms of raw seats and legislative power, the Democrats in the U.S. and the BJP in India are the current champions of the 2025-2026 cycle. But don't ignore the retirements. In the U.S. House alone, 47 representatives have already announced they aren't running again in 2026. That includes big names like Nancy Pelosi.
When that many incumbents bail, it usually means they smell a shift in the wind.
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If you want to keep a pulse on this, stop looking at national polls and start looking at state-level special elections. They are the only real "canary in the coal mine" for what’s coming in November. Keep an eye on the upcoming Costa Rican and Thai elections next month; they’ll tell us if the global trend toward "incumbent fatigue" is actually a permanent fixture or just a passing phase.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Monitor Special Elections: Check sites like Ballotpedia or Bolts Mag monthly. Special election swings are more accurate than general polls.
- Watch the "Retirement Tracker": As more incumbents announce they aren't running for 2026, the "toss-up" map expands, making a House flip more likely.
- Local Over National: If you're in a "trifecta" state (like Virginia or New Jersey), pay attention to the legislative sessions starting now; they’re the blueprint for national policy battles.