If you haven't checked the box score lately, the Raiders' quarterback room looks nothing like it did a couple of years ago. It's been a total whirlwind.
Right now, Geno Smith is technically the guy atop the depth chart, but "it's complicated" doesn't even begin to cover it. After the Raiders fired Pete Carroll on January 5, 2026, everything went into a tailspin. We're talking about a team that just finished 3-14, tied for the worst record in the league.
You’ve probably seen the headlines. Geno started 15 games in the 2025 season. He threw 17 interceptions. He was sacked 55 times (a league-high, by the way). Honestly, it was a brutal year for anyone wearing the Silver and Black. While Geno is under contract through 2027, the vibe in Vegas suggests his time as the locked-in starter is pretty much over.
The Geno Smith Situation in Las Vegas
When the Raiders traded for Geno Smith in March 2025, the idea was to recreate that Seattle magic. Pete Carroll was the head coach, and he wanted "his guy." They even signed him to a massive two-year, $75 million extension.
It didn't work.
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Geno struggled behind a line that felt like a sieve most weeks. His QBR bottomed out at 34.2, which ranked near the bottom of the NFL. Now that Carroll is gone, the Raiders are staring at an $18.5 million dead cap hit if they cut him, according to Spotrac data.
But here is the thing: they have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Who else is in the room?
Behind Geno, the depth chart has some familiar names, but nobody who screams "franchise savior" just yet.
- Kenny Pickett: He actually got two starts late in the 2025 season. He’s the primary backup right now, providing that veteran-adjacent depth, but most scouts see him as a high-end QB2 rather than the long-term answer in Vegas.
- Aidan O'Connell: He’s still there. He’s entering his third season and has 17 career starts under his belt. He’s the reliable "safe" option who knows the building, but he spent most of 2025 watching from the sidelines.
- Cam Miller: The rookie out of North Dakota State. He was a late-round flyer in the 2025 draft. He’s athletic and had a wild winning record in college, but he's still very much a developmental project.
The Fernando Mendoza Shadow
You can't talk about who the Raiders' QB is without talking about who it’s going to be. Every mock draft from NBC Sports to ESPN has the Raiders taking Fernando Mendoza from Indiana with the first pick.
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Mendoza just won the Heisman. He threw 41 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions while leading Indiana to a 15-0 record and a national title appearance. For a Raiders team that finished last in total yardage and points, he’s the shiny new toy everyone wants.
If they draft Mendoza, Geno Smith basically becomes the most expensive "bridge" quarterback in history. Or, the Raiders might just eat the cap hit and move on entirely to start the Mendoza era on day one.
Why the 2025 Season Was Such a Disaster
It wasn't just the QB play. Maxx Crosby was a beast as usual, but he ended the season on Injured Reserve. Brock Bowers, who was having an All-Pro caliber sophomore year, also missed significant time with a knee injury.
When your best weapons are in the training room and your QB is getting hit on every third dropback, you end up with three wins.
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What Really Happened with the Depth Chart
A lot of people think the Raiders are just "stuck" with Geno because of the money. That's not entirely true. John Spytek, the GM, has a massive amount of cap space to work with this offseason.
They could theoretically trade the No. 1 pick for a haul and go after a disgruntled veteran—there are even rumors about a wild swing for someone like Lamar Jackson if Baltimore ever blinked—but the smart money is on the rookie.
- Drafting the Future: Take Mendoza at No. 1.
- The Placeholder: Keep Geno for the first half of 2026 to let the kid learn.
- The Clean Slate: Cut ties, take the cap hit, and start fresh with a new coaching staff.
The Raiders are at a crossroads. While Geno Smith's name is the one on the "Starter" line of the official depth chart today, January 16, 2026, he’s basically a ghost in the building. Fans are already wearing Mendoza jerseys they custom-ordered.
What to Watch Next
If you're tracking this, keep your eyes on the NFL Scouting Combine in February. That’s where the Raiders' new coaching staff—whoever they hire—will have to decide if they want to build around Geno's veteran experience or if they are going to bet the house on the Heisman winner.
Actionable Steps for Raiders Fans:
- Monitor the Coaching Search: The new coach's scheme will dictate if Geno stays. A vertical-threat coach might like Geno’s deep ball (99.9 PFF grade in that area), but a West Coast guy will want a quick-processor like Mendoza.
- Check the January 23 Deadline: That’s when underclassmen have to officially declare for the draft. If Mendoza is in, the Geno Smith era in Vegas is effectively over.
- Watch the Salary Cap: If the Raiders restructure other deals, it’s a sign they are preparing to swallow the dead money from a Geno Smith release.
The QB situation in Vegas is a moving target. Geno is the guy "for now," but "for now" feels like it has an expiration date of April 23—Draft Night.