Wait. Stop for a second. If you just Googled "who is the new Pope" because you thought there was a massive white-smoke moment at the Vatican this morning, you aren't alone, but you might be a little ahead of schedule.
Pope Francis is the current Pope.
Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, he’s been in the shoes of the fisherman since March 2013. He isn't "new" in terms of days on the job, but he remains "new" in the sense of the radical, often polarizing shift he’s brought to the Catholic Church. However, the reason you’re likely asking this question—and the reason it’s trending—is because of the intense, almost feverish speculation surrounding his health and the inevitable question of who comes next.
Let's get the facts straight.
The Current State of the Papacy
Pope Francis is 89 years old. That’s a fact. He’s struggled with sciatica, underwent significant intestinal surgery at Gemelli Hospital, and now frequently uses a wheelchair due to a persistent knee ligament issue. Because of this, the "Vatican watchers" (the vaticanisti) are constantly looking for the next guy. But as of right now, there is no new Pope. Francis is very much in charge, recently completing grueling trips to Asia and Luxembourg, proving that while his legs might be weak, his schedule is still punishing.
People often confuse "new" with "different." Francis was the first Pope from the Americas. The first Jesuit. The first to take the name Francis. He broke the mold so thoroughly that many people still feel like they are living in a "new" era of the church, even a decade later.
Who are the frontrunners for the next Conclave?
When Francis does eventually pass or retire—and he has praised Benedict XVI’s decision to resign, calling it a "door that is open"—the process of choosing the "new" Pope begins. This isn't like a presidential election. There are no campaign ads. There are no stump speeches. It’s all whispers in the marble hallways of Rome.
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If we look at the College of Cardinals today, Francis has "stacked the deck." He has appointed the vast majority of the men who will eventually vote for his successor. This suggests the next Pope will likely continue his path of "synodality" (basically, more listening and less top-down decreeing) and focus on the "peripheries" of the world.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
The Vatican Secretary of State. He’s the ultimate diplomat. If the Cardinals want a "safe pair of hands" to stabilize the bureaucracy after the somewhat chaotic, high-energy years of Francis, Parolin is the guy. He knows where the bodies are buried, so to speak, but he’s also viewed as a bridge between the liberal and conservative wings. He's Italian, which would be a return to tradition after decades of non-Italian Popes (Polish, German, and Argentine).
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Often called the "Francis of Asia." Hailing from the Philippines, Tagle has a massive personality. He’s known to cry with refugees and sing on stage. He represents the future of the Church—the Global South. The center of gravity for Catholicism has shifted away from Europe and toward Africa and Asia. Tagle is a theological heavyweight but has that "smell of the sheep" that Francis loves.
Cardinal Péter Erdő
For those who think Francis has gone too far to the left, Erdő is the name that pops up. He’s the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in Hungary. He’s a canon lawyer. Precise. Traditional. If the Conclave feels the Church has become too informal or doctrinally "fuzzy," they might swing back toward a more structured, European traditionalism.
Why the question "Who is the new Pope" is so complicated
Honestly, the term "New Pope" is actually the title of a popular HBO show starring Jude Law and John Malkovich. This causes a ton of confusion online. If you saw a clip of a young, handsome Pope smoking a cigarette or a regal-looking John Malkovich walking through St. Peter’s, you’re looking at fiction.
In reality, the Papacy is far less glamorous and far more bogged down in global politics.
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Francis has changed the "vibe." He lives in a guest house (Santa Marta) instead of the ornate Apostolic Palace. He drives a small car. This "newness" isn't just about a person; it’s about a philosophy. He’s pushed for environmental action through his encyclical Laudato si’ and has tried to make the Church more welcoming to LGBTQ+ individuals and the divorced.
But this has created enemies.
There is a very real, very vocal conservative opposition, particularly in the United States. Figures like Cardinal Raymond Burke have openly challenged the Pope. This tension is why everyone is obsessed with who is next. Will the next Pope double down on Francis’s reforms, or will he be a "restorationist" who tries to pull the Church back to 1950?
The "Papabili" and the African Surge
We have to talk about Africa. It is the fastest-growing region for Catholicism.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo is a massive figure right now. He recently led the African bishops in a collective "no" to the Vatican's guidance on blessing same-sex couples (Fiducia Supplicans). This showed that the African Church is no longer just following Rome’s lead; they are a power block of their own. If the Cardinals decide the Church needs to be more morally conservative but remains focused on the poor and social justice, an African Pope is a very real possibility.
How the "New" Pope is actually chosen
When the seat becomes vacant (Sede Vacante), the Cardinals under the age of 80 lock themselves in the Sistine Chapel. They don't come out until they have a 2/3 majority.
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- Scrutiny: They write a name on a rectangular piece of paper, disguising their handwriting.
- Burning: They burn the ballots. Black smoke means no winner. White smoke means we have a Pope.
- Acceptance: The winner is asked "Acceptasne?" (Do you accept?).
- The Name: They choose a new regnal name. This is a huge signal of intent. If they choose "Pius," expect a hardline traditionalist. If they choose "Francis II," expect the status quo.
The Misconception of the "Liberal" Pope
People often call Francis "the liberal Pope." That’s a bit of a misnomer. On things like abortion and the core tenets of the Creed, he hasn't changed a single word of the Catechism. He’s changed the priority. He thinks the Church should be a "field hospital" rather than a customs house.
He’s focused on:
- Climate Change: Treating the Earth as a "common home."
- Migrants: Constantly calling out the "globalization of indifference."
- Economy: Criticizing "unfettered capitalism."
So, when you ask who is the new Pope, you're asking about the future of these specific issues. If a new Pope is elected tomorrow, the world’s stance on global migration and environmental policy could literally shift because of the diplomatic weight the Holy See carries.
What you should keep an eye on
If you want to know who is likely to be the "new" Pope, watch the "Consistories." These are the ceremonies where the Pope creates new Cardinals. Every time Francis adds a Cardinal from a place like Mongolia, South Sudan, or San Diego (bypassing the traditional "big" cities like Los Angeles or Venice), he is reshaping the voting pool.
He is making the College of Cardinals look less like a European club and more like a map of the world.
The next Conclave will be one of the most unpredictable in history because these Cardinals don't actually know each other very well. They aren't all based in Rome. They are coming from the edges of the earth. When they get locked in that room, it won't be about backroom deals as much as it will be about "who can actually lead this global mess?"
Actionable Steps for Staying Informed
Instead of just checking the news for a name, you can actually track the movement of the Papacy to see where things are headed.
- Check the Bollettino: The Holy See Press Office releases a daily bulletin. It’s dry, but it’s the only way to see who the Pope is meeting. If he’s meeting a specific Cardinal frequently, pay attention.
- Follow the "Synod on Synodality": This is Francis's big project. It’s basically a massive survey of every Catholic in the world. The results of this will dictate the "job description" for the next Pope.
- Monitor the health of the "Big Three": Parolin, Tagle, and Zuppi. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi is the head of the Italian Bishops and has been Francis's personal peace envoy to Ukraine and Russia. He’s a massive "dark horse" for the next Papacy.
- Distinguish Fiction from Fact: If you see "New Pope" news, double-check if it’s referring to the HBO series or the actual Vatican. The algorithm often blurs the two.
The "New Pope" is currently a man named Francis who is trying to finish a marathon on a bad knee. The "Next Pope" is a mystery currently hidden in a group of about 130 men scattered across the globe. For now, the "White Smoke" remains a memory from 2013, but the preparation for the next time it rises is happening every single day in the quiet corners of the Vatican.