The first Saturday in May feels a long way off when you're staring at January frost, but in the horse racing world, the clock is already screaming. We are officially in the "dreaming" phase of the Triple Crown. Every owner with a halfway decent three-year-old thinks they have the next Secretariat. Most are wrong.
But a few? They’re actually onto something.
If you’re trying to figure out who is running in the Kentucky Derby, you have to look past the casual headlines. The leaderboard is shifting every single weekend. One bad step in a morning gallop or a flat performance in a muddy prep race can end a Derby dream before the mint juleps are even mixed.
Right now, the 2026 trail is dominated by a few heavy hitters, but the "smart money" is already looking at the horses that haven't quite peaked yet.
The Heavyweights at the Top of the Board
Todd Pletcher is back. Honestly, was he ever really gone? The man has a literal army of talent every year, but Ted Noffey is the current king of the hill.
This colt is a monster. Owned by Spendthrift Farm, he’s already banked 40 points, basically guaranteeing him a spot in the starting gate. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with the kind of ease that makes veteran bettors nervous. He’s by Into Mischief—a sire who is essentially a cheat code for Churchill Downs lately.
But it’s not just Pletcher.
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- Litmus Test: Bob Baffert’s top hope at the moment. He won the Los Alamitos Futurity and looked like he was just getting started.
- Intrepido: Jeff Mullins has a live one here. He’s sitting on 13 points and has shown he can handle the gritty reality of a crowded dirt track.
- Universe: Kenny McPeek is coming off a massive 2025, and Universe looks like the kind of blue-collar horse that thrives at 1 1/4 miles.
There’s a lot of talk about Mr. A. P., but here’s the reality: he’s currently dealing with a training setback. Vladimir Cerin’s trainee has 15 points, but in this game, if you aren't moving forward, you're moving backward. He's a major "if" right now.
The "New Money" and the International Threat
It’s not just about the American staples anymore. The Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby is becoming a legitimate pipeline that can't be ignored.
Pyromancer is the name you need to circle. Carrying the Godolphin blue, he took the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun and earned 20 points. Godolphin’s Japan manager has already pointed toward the UAE Derby in Dubai as the next stop. If he wins there? He’s in. And he’s dangerous.
Then there’s Satono Voyage. He’s trained by Hiroyasu Tanaka, who knows how to prep a horse for dirt. He won the Cattleya Stakes and has 10 points in the bank. These aren't just "participation trophy" entries; these horses are bred to win on the world stage.
Why Pedigree Matters More Than Speed Right Now
Everyone loves a fast Beyer Speed Figure. But a horse that wins a sprint in January doesn't necessarily want to go 10 furlongs in May.
Take Spice Runner. He’s a Gun Runner colt. That matters because Gun Runners tend to get better as they get older and the races get longer. He’s got 11 points for Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is the winningest trainer in history without a Derby trophy—a stat that he probably hates being reminded of—but Spice Runner might be the horse to change that. He’s got that "classic" look.
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On the flip side, you have horses like It’s Our Time. He won a maiden race at Saratoga by over 17 lengths. It was incredible. It was flashy. But his mom was a pure sprinter. Can he actually go the distance? That’s the $5 million question.
The Underdogs and the "Maiden Watch"
Sometimes the horse that wins the Derby isn't even on the leaderboard in January. Remember Rich Strike? Exactly.
Keep an eye on Robusta. Doug O’Neill (who already has two Derby wins) saddled this guy to a 24-1 upset recently. He beat some serious competition, including Baffert’s Blacksmith. He might not have the flashy pedigree of a $2 million yearling, but he’s got the "will to win" that you can't teach.
And don't sleep on Bill Mott’s barn. He just unveiled Chief Wallabee and Thunderously. Both won their debuts in early January. Thunderously, another Gun Runner son, won by five lengths. It was professional. It was easy. He’s got zero points right now, but that will change by March.
Who is Running in the Kentucky Derby: The Current Top 10
If the race were held tomorrow (which, thankfully, it isn’t), here is basically what the top of the list looks like based on points and performance:
- Ted Noffey (40 pts): The undisputed leader. Pletcher/Spendthrift connection is lethal.
- Litmus Test (19 pts): Baffert's primary weapon.
- Mr. A. P. (15 pts): Talented but sidelined. Needs to get back on the track soon.
- Intrepido (13 pts): Solid, consistent, and already battle-tested.
- Universe (13 pts): The McPeek factor. This horse will run all day.
- Spice Runner (11 pts): The pedigree pick for Asmussen.
- Napoleon Solo (10 pts): A $40,000 bargain buy who won the Champagne Stakes.
- Further Ado (10 pts): Brad Cox’s steady runner for Spendthrift.
- Express Kid (10 pts): Wade Rarick’s dominant winner of the Springboard Mile.
- My World (10 pts): Another Brad Cox prospect with plenty of upside.
What to Watch for in the Coming Weeks
The path to Churchill Downs is littered with "almosts."
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The upcoming prep races like the Lecomte, the Holy Bull, and the Withers are where the pretenders get exposed. We’re looking for horses that can handle dirt in their face, horses that don't panic when they’re squeezed at the rail, and horses that can finish their final fraction in under 13 seconds.
If you're watching who is running in the Kentucky Derby, keep a close eye on the "bullet works" in the mornings at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. A horse like Incredibolt (Riley Mott) just fired a bullet work—that's a signal. It means the horse is sharp.
Horse racing is a game of attrition. Half of the names mentioned above won't make it to the gate due to injuries or simply not being fast enough when the distance increases. But right now? The dream is alive for all of them.
Actionable Insights for Following the Trail:
- Monitor the Leaderboard: Check the official Churchill Downs points standings every Monday after the big weekend preps.
- Watch the "Final Furlong": Don't just look at who won. Look at how they finished. A horse that is gaining ground at the end of 1 1/16 miles is much more likely to handle the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby.
- Fade the "Hype" Sprints: Be wary of horses that look like superstars going short distances but have sprint-heavy pedigrees. They almost always "hit the wall" at the top of the stretch in Louisville.
- Follow the Trainers: Pletcher, Cox, and Baffert are the "Big Three" for a reason. If they're pointing a horse toward a specific race, pay attention.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a clash of established giants and international wildcards. Whether it's the gray speed of Ted Noffey or the stamina of Spice Runner, the field is finally starting to take shape.