Florida is currently hurtling toward one of the most consequential political shifts in its modern history. 2026 is the year everything changes. For nearly a decade, Ron DeSantis has been the face of the Sunshine State, but term limits are a real thing. He can't run again. This creates a massive power vacuum, and honestly, the list of people trying to fill it is getting crowded.
It's weirdly early but also exactly the right time to start paying attention. If you've lived here for more than five minutes, you know Florida politics is basically a contact sport. We are seeing a mix of MAGA heavyweights, local mayors, and even a prominent defector from the Democratic party.
The GOP Frontrunners and the Trump Factor
Republicans have dominated Florida for years, so the GOP primary is essentially the "main event" right now. Byron Donalds is the name you’re going to hear most often. He’s a U.S. Representative from Naples, and more importantly, he has the golden ticket: an endorsement from Donald Trump.
Recent polling from early 2026 shows Donalds holding a commanding lead. We’re talking numbers in the high 30s or low 40s while everyone else struggles to break single digits. But don't count the other guys out yet. Jay Collins, the current Lieutenant Governor, officially jumped into the race in January 2026. He’s a combat veteran with a purple heart, which plays incredibly well in the Panhandle and Central Florida.
Then there's the "DeSantis legacy" wing. Paul Renner, the former House Speaker, is running. He’s been a massive ally to the current administration. You also have James Fishback, an investor who’s positioning himself as the "outsider" alternative to the career politicians.
👉 See also: Why the Recent Snowfall Western New York State Emergency Was Different
- Byron Donalds: The current favorite with Trump's backing.
- Jay Collins: DeSantis's right-hand man looking to step up.
- Paul Renner: The legislative powerhouse with deep ties to Tallahassee.
- James Fishback: The wild card bringing private sector energy.
Wait, what about the First Lady? Casey DeSantis has been the subject of "will she, won't she" rumors for ages. While she hasn't officially declared, her name still pops up in polls, and let’s be real—if she enters, the entire math of this race resets instantly.
The Democratic Challenge: A Search for Relevance
Being a Democrat in Florida lately has been, well, tough. After the 2024 elections, the party is basically in a rebuilding phase. Nikki Fried, who many thought would take another shot at the governor's mansion, officially ruled herself out in early 2025. She’s staying on as the party chair to try and fix the "ground game" problems that have plagued them for years.
So who is actually in? Jerry Demings, the Orange County Mayor, is a huge get for the Democrats. He’s a former police chief and sheriff with a massive base in the Orlando area. His "I Believe" campaign is focusing heavily on affordability—property insurance, rent, the stuff that’s actually making people consider moving out of the state.
David Jolly is the other big name. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because he used to be a Republican U.S. Representative. He’s rebranded as a Democrat and is leaning hard into education reform and the cost-of-living crisis. He’s betting that moderate voters are tired of the "culture wars" and just want their homeowner's insurance premiums to stop doubling every year.
✨ Don't miss: Nate Silver Trump Approval Rating: Why the 2026 Numbers Look So Different
The Independent Disruptor
Perhaps the most fascinating story in the race for who is running for governor of Florida 2026 is Jason Pizzo. He was a high-ranking Democrat in the State Senate, but in April 2025, he did something radical: he quit the party.
Pizzo is now running as an Independent (No Party Affiliation). He’s essentially betting that there’s a "silent majority" of Floridians who are exhausted by both the Tallahassee GOP and the struggling Florida Democrats. It’s a massive gamble. Florida hasn't had a non-major party governor since... well, basically never in the modern era. But Pizzo has money and a loud microphone, especially in South Florida.
What People Get Wrong About This Election
Most people assume the winner is decided by who can shout the loudest about national politics. Honestly? That's probably wrong this time.
The 2026 cycle is going to be dominated by affordability. Florida is becoming incredibly expensive. Between the insurance crisis and the skyrocketing cost of real estate, the candidate who actually offers a roadmap to lowering monthly bills is the one who’s going to win over the suburbs.
🔗 Read more: Weather Forecast Lockport NY: Why Today’s Snow Isn’t Just Hype
Republican candidates are trying to balance their loyalty to the DeSantis/Trump era with the reality that voters are frustrated with local costs. Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to prove they can actually win a statewide race after a decade of losing streaks.
Important Dates to Remember
The road to the Governor's Mansion is long. Here is the timeline you need to circle on your calendar:
- April 24, 2026: The final deadline for candidates to officially file their paperwork.
- August 18, 2026: Primary Day. This is where the GOP and Democratic fields get thinned out.
- November 3, 2026: Election Day. The day we find out who leads Florida into the next decade.
Actionable Next Steps for Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, don't just wait for the TV commercials. Check the Florida Department of State’s candidate tracking system periodically. It’s where the "paperwork" hits the fan first. Also, pay attention to the fundraising reports—in Florida, the person with the biggest war chest usually dictates the narrative. Lastly, make sure your voter registration is up to date, especially if you’ve moved recently, as Florida has tightened rules on mail-in ballots and registration updates.