It feels like we just finished cleaning up the lawn signs from the last election, doesn't it? But in New Hampshire, the political machine never really sleeps. Even though the actual voting won't happen until late 2026, the question of who is running for governor in New Hampshire is already dominating conversations from the State House in Concord to the local diners in Portsmouth.
New Hampshire is a bit of a political anomaly. We’re a "purple" state that leans blue for Presidents and Senators but has a long-standing habit of keeping a Republican in the corner office. Kelly Ayotte is the latest to hold that torch, and as we look toward the 2026 cycle, the big question isn't just who wants the job, but who can actually take it from her.
The Incumbent Factor: Kelly Ayotte's Path
Right now, Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte is the central figure in this drama. While the official filing period doesn't open until June 2026, she is widely expected to seek a second term. Honestly, it’s her race to lose. She won in 2024 by nearly 10 points, a comfortable margin in a state where things usually stay pretty tight.
Ayotte has basically positioned herself as the successor to Chris Sununu’s brand of politics. She calls it the "Sununu path." It’s a mix of fiscal conservatism—think no sales or income tax—and a weirdly independent streak that Granite Staters love. For example, she recently bucked some of the more hardline elements of her party by vetoing HB 148, a bill involving biological sex and public spaces. That kind of move makes it really hard for Democrats to paint her as an "extreme" Republican.
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But here's the catch. New Hampshire is a state where Kamala Harris won in 2024. The electorate is fickle. Ayotte's approval ratings are solid, hovering around 51%, but 38% of voters say they're ready for someone else. That’s a big enough gap for a challenger to crawl through.
Potential Primary Friction
You might think she’d have a clear runway in her own party, but there’s always a "but" in politics. Corey Lewandowski, a name everyone knows from the Trump era and now a senior adviser at DHS, has been mentioned as a possible primary challenger. There’s been some chatter about a "pressure campaign" from D.C. to get him into the race. If that happens, the GOP primary could turn into a total slugfest over who is "truly" conservative.
The Democratic Field: Who Is Stepping Up?
The Democrats are in a bit of a pickle. After Joyce Craig’s loss in 2024, the party is looking for a fresh face who can actually win over the independent voters who make up the largest chunk of the NH electorate.
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Jon Kiper: The "Community-First" Maverick
As of early 2026, Jon Kiper is the only Democrat who has officially declared he's in. If you recognize the name, it's because he ran in 2024 and came in third in the primary. Kiper is a restaurant owner and former town councilor from Newmarket.
He’s an interesting guy. He actually started this 2026 bid as an independent before switching back to the Democratic ticket in September 2025. He’s running on what he calls "community-first economics." Basically, he’s arguing that while the stock market is doing great, people in NH can't afford rent and are getting crushed by property taxes. He’s very open about the fact that he isn’t part of the "wealthy elite," which is a vibe that resonates with a lot of regular folks.
The Names We’re Watching
Even though Kiper is the only one "officially" in, the rumor mill is spinning fast.
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- Deaglan McEachern: The Mayor of Portsmouth has publicly expressed interest. He’s got that "urban-moderate" appeal that could help Democrats in the Seacoast area.
- Donovan Fenton: Party leaders are reportedly trying to recruit this two-term State Senator from Keene. He’s young, articulate, and represents a part of the state that Democrats absolutely must win big.
- Cinde Warmington: The former Executive Councilor hasn't ruled out another run. She has deep ties to the party base, though some worry she might be too far left for the general election.
- Tom Sherman: The 2022 nominee is also being polled. People still remember him, but is there an appetite for a "rematch" candidate? Probably not.
What Most People Get Wrong About NH Politics
If you’re trying to figure out who is running for governor in New Hampshire, you have to understand the "Split-Ticket" phenomenon.
Most national observers look at NH and see two Democratic Congressmen and two Democratic Senators and assume the Governor's race is a layup for the Dems. It’s not. Granite Staters take a lot of pride in checking "D" for one office and "R" for another. They like balance. They like a Republican Governor to keep the Democratic legislature (or the Democratic vibes of the state) in check, especially when it comes to spending.
The Issues That Will Actually Decide This
You can talk about personalities all day, but three things are going to define the 2026 race:
- Housing: It is insanely expensive to live here right now. Kiper is hammering this, and Ayotte is trying to show she’s making progress. If voters don't see more hammers hitting nails, the incumbent is going to feel the heat.
- Property Taxes: We don't have a broad-based tax, so the local towns have to fund everything through property taxes. It’s a broken system that everyone complains about but nobody has fixed.
- The "Sununu Legacy": Can Ayotte keep the magic alive? Chris Sununu was a once-in-a-generation political talent in this state. If Ayotte starts to feel like just another politician, that's when the "Likely Republican" rating from folks like the Cook Political Report starts to slip.
Actionable Insights for NH Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve as the 2026 race develops, here is what you should actually do:
- Watch the Executive Council Meetings: This is where the real power is in NH. It’s where Ayotte’s appointments and contracts get vetted. It’s the best place to see where the candidates stand on actual policy rather than just campaign slogans.
- Check the Filing Deadlines: The official filing period is June 3 to June 12, 2026. Anyone who says they are "running" before then is technically just "testing the waters" or campaigning unofficially.
- Look at Municipal Elections: Portsmouth’s mayor and Keene’s local leaders are often the "farm team" for the Governor’s office. Pay attention to how Deaglan McEachern or Donovan Fenton handle local crises in the next year.
- Follow the "Citizens Count" Platform: They do a great job of tracking every single candidate’s stance on specific bills. It’s the easiest way to cut through the TV ad noise.
The 2026 race is going to be a long one. Between Jon Kiper’s grassroots push and Kelly Ayotte’s attempt to hold the line, the political landscape in the Granite State is about to get very crowded. Keep your eyes on those local town hall meetings; that's where the real campaigning happens in New Hampshire.