Florida politics is always a bit of a circus, but 2026 is shaping up to be a full-blown main event. With Ron DeSantis hitting his term limit, the keys to the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee are officially up for grabs. Honestly, the Republican primary is where the real fireworks are. It’s not just a race; it’s basically a proxy war between different wings of the GOP, all trying to figure out who carries the torch next.
If you've been watching the polls lately, one name is screaming louder than the rest: Byron Donalds. But don't think for a second it's a coronation. From local heavyweights to a potential "First Lady" run, the field of who is running for florida governor 2026 republican candidates is getting crowded, fast.
The Frontrunner: Byron Donalds and the Trump Factor
Byron Donalds isn't just "considering" a run; he’s been in the trenches for a while. The Congressman from Naples officially jumped in early, and he brought some serious muscle with him. He’s got the endorsement of Donald Trump, and in a Florida Republican primary, that’s kind of like holding an ace in a high-stakes poker game.
Recent polling from January 2026 bears this out. Mason-Dixon has him sitting at 37%, which is a massive lead when you realize the next closest person is in the single digits.
Why is he doing so well?
- Trump’s Stamp: The 47th President’s endorsement is gold. Among voters who know about it, Donalds' support jumps to nearly 70%.
- The Fighter Image: He’s positioned himself as the "America First" warrior who can unite the party.
- Broad Support: He’s already racked up endorsements from big names like Elon Musk and a huge chunk of the Florida House GOP caucus.
But 49% of voters are still undecided. That is a massive "maybe" hanging over the state. In politics, that's enough room for a dozen upsets.
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The "Will She or Won't She": Casey DeSantis
This is the biggest question mark in Tallahassee. Casey DeSantis is easily one of the most popular figures in Florida GOP circles. She’s a cancer survivor, a former TV journalist, and has been the visible face of her husband’s most successful initiatives.
As of right now, she hasn't pulled the trigger on an official campaign. But the rumors? They’re everywhere.
Polls show her as the only person who can actually go toe-to-toe with Byron Donalds. In some surveys where she’s included, she pulls around 26% to 30% of the vote. If she gets in, it turns into a fascinating battle: the Trump-endorsed candidate versus the legacy of the DeSantis administration.
The Established Players: Collins, Renner, and More
While the headlines focus on the "Big Two," several other serious Republicans are already on the ballot or moving toward it.
Jay Collins
The current Lieutenant Governor (who took over after Jeanette Nuñez moved on) is officially in. He’s a former Green Beret with a compelling personal story, but he’s currently struggling with name recognition. He’s polling at about 7%. He’s a "wait and see" candidate—if he can find a way to break through the noise, his military background plays very well with the base.
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Paul Renner
The former Speaker of the Florida House is another heavy hitter who officially launched his bid. He’s the policy guy. He’s been behind some of the biggest legislative wins in the state over the last few years. The challenge? Policy experts aren't always the most exciting campaigners. He’s currently hovering around 4% in the polls.
James Fishback
The wild card. He’s a 30-year-old investor and CEO who’s running as an outsider. He’s been critical of the "establishment" and even took some swipes at Trump’s choice in the race. He’s polling low (3%), but he has the personal wealth to stay in the race if he chooses.
Rumors and the "Almost" Candidates
What about Matt Gaetz? For a long time, everyone assumed he was the heir apparent. However, after a whirlwind of events—including a resignation from Congress and a brief stint as a nominee for Attorney General—Gaetz has been coy. While he "floated" the idea of a run in early 2025, claiming he had a "compelling vision" for insurance reform, he hasn't filed the paperwork yet. Most insiders think he’s waiting to see if a path opens up or if he’s better suited for a different role.
Then there’s the "DeSantis Cabinet" crowd. Wilton Simpson, the Agriculture Commissioner, has been rumored for years. He has a massive war chest and a lot of respect in rural Florida, but he hasn't made the jump yet.
Who is officially out?
- Ashley Moody: The former Attorney General was a top pick for Governor, but she was appointed to fill Marco Rubio’s Senate seat. She’s now focused on her own special election to keep that seat in 2026.
- Jimmy Patronis: The former CFO resigned to run for Congress in a special election. He’s out of the gubernatorial picture for now.
What Actually Matters to Florida Voters?
It’s not just about who Trump likes or who has the best TV ads. Florida has some "kitchen table" problems that the next governor has to own.
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1. The Insurance Nightmare
If you live in Florida, you know. Homeowners insurance is a disaster. Rates have skyrocketed, and companies are fleeing the state. Any candidate who wants to win has to explain how they’ll fix this without just handing the state over to the insurance companies. Matt Gaetz actually tried to pivot to this issue early on, knowing it’s the #1 complaint in the suburbs.
2. The Affordability Crisis
It's not just insurance. It’s rent. It’s groceries. Florida used to be the "cheap" state. Not anymore. Candidates like Byron Donalds are already leaning hard into "making Florida affordable again."
3. The Trump vs. DeSantis Legacy
There is a subtle, sometimes awkward tension between those who are "Trump First" and those who are "DeSantis First." This primary will be the ultimate test of which brand of conservatism Floridians want for the next four years.
The Timeline to Watch
If you're keeping score at home, here are the dates that actually matter:
- August 18, 2026: The Primary Election. This is where the Republican nominee will be decided. Given Florida's current political leaning, the winner of this day is the heavy favorite for the mansion.
- November 3, 2026: The General Election. The Republican winner will likely face someone like David Jolly or Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.
Actionable Insights for Voters and Observers
If you are trying to stay ahead of the curve on the 2026 race, do these three things:
- Watch the Fundraising Reports: In Florida, money talks. Check the quarterly reports for Byron Donalds and Paul Renner. If a dark horse candidate suddenly reports a multi-million dollar haul, the race just changed.
- Monitor the "DeSantis Factor": Keep a close eye on Casey DeSantis’s public appearances. If she starts doing solo "listening tours" across the I-4 corridor, she’s running.
- Don't Ignore the Undecideds: With nearly 50% of Republicans saying they don't know who they're voting for yet, the early polls are just a snapshot of name recognition. The "ground game" in North Florida and the Panhandle will decide this, not just Miami headlines.
The 2026 race is just getting started, but the battle lines are already drawn. Whether it’s a Trump-backed Congressman or a continuation of the DeSantis era, Florida's political future is about to get very interesting.