North Carolina politics is basically a contact sport at this point. If you’ve lived here for more than a week, you know the drill. We’re a purple state that acts like it’s in a blender every two years. But the 2026 cycle? It’s already shaping up to be something else entirely.
The biggest shocker came early. Thom Tillis isn't actually running. I know, the question is usually "who is running against him," but that changed on June 29, 2025. After some serious heat from the far-right wing of his own party and a public spat with the White House over a massive spending bill, Tillis pulled the plug on a reelection bid. He’s out.
Now, we have a wide-open seat. In a state where elections are decided by the narrowest of margins, an open Senate seat is like throwing a steak into a kennel. Everyone wants a piece.
The Republican Side: It's a Wild West
With Tillis stepping aside, the GOP primary has turned into a massive scramble. For a long time, the big "what if" was Lara Trump. Polls showed her absolutely crushing Tillis in a hypothetical matchup—we're talking 65% to 11% kind of numbers. While she hasn't jumped in officially as the definitive frontrunner yet, the vacuum left by Tillis has invited a crowd.
Michael Whatley is the name you’ll hear most. As the former chairman of the Republican National Committee and the N.C. Republican Party, he has the "in" with the donor class. He’s already raised over $1.3 million. He has the backing of Donald Trump, which in a North Carolina primary is basically gold.
Then you have Michele Morrow. She’s a familiar face to anyone who followed the 2024 race for State Superintendent. She’s leaning hard into the "outsider" lane, focusing on school choice and culture-war issues that fire up the base. She announced her bid just a few weeks ago in December.
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And then there's Don Brown. He’s an attorney and author who’s been endorsed by former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. He doesn’t have Whatley’s war chest yet—sitting on about $44k—but he’s banking on that grassroots connection.
There are others too, like Andy Nilsson, a retired business owner and football coach, and Margot Dupre, a real estate broker. It’s a crowded field. The primary is set for March 3, 2026. If nobody gets 30%, we head to a runoff in May.
The Democratic Heavyweight: Roy Cooper
On the Democratic side, things are much less chaotic.
For months, everyone was asking if Roy Cooper would do it. He finished his term as Governor with high approval ratings, which is a rare feat in this state. Honestly, he’s the only Democrat who has consistently shown he can win statewide when the "top of the ticket" is struggling.
Well, he’s in.
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Cooper is the presumptive nominee. He’s already sitting on a massive pile of cash—over $8.5 million on hand as of the last filings. That’s a terrifying number for any opponent. National Democrats see him as their best chance to flip this seat.
Wiley Nickel was the first big name to jump in. He’s a former Congressman who represented the Raleigh area. He’s smart, he’s a great fundraiser, and he’s young. But once Cooper announced, Nickel actually shifted gears. He withdrew from the Senate race and is now running for Wake County District Attorney.
There are some other Democrats in the mix, like Justin Dues and Marcus Williams, but let’s be real: this is Roy Cooper’s primary to lose.
Why This Race is a Total Mess (In a Good Way)
North Carolina is a "50-50" state. We have a Democratic Governor (Josh Stein) and a Republican-controlled legislature. We usually vote for Republican Presidential candidates, but then we turn around and elect Democrats to statewide office. It makes no sense to outsiders.
The 2026 race is going to be the most expensive in state history. Mark my words.
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The Trump Factor
Even though Tillis is gone, the "Trump vs. Establishment" battle is still happening in the GOP primary. Michael Whatley represents the wing that has fully merged with the Trump infrastructure.
The "Governor vs. Senator" Dynamic
If it ends up being Whatley vs. Cooper, you’re looking at a clash of titans. Cooper has high name recognition. Whatley has the party machine.
The Suburban Vote
This is where the race will be won. Places like Wake and Mecklenburg counties are turning deep blue. But the surrounding "doughnut" counties—Union, Cabarrus, Johnston—are the battlegrounds.
What You Should Watch For Next
If you’re trying to keep track of this without losing your mind, focus on these three things:
- The March 3rd Primary: This is the big one. Will the Republicans consolidate behind Whatley, or will a fringe candidate force a runoff? A runoff would be expensive and potentially leave the GOP nominee bruised for the general.
- The Fundraising Gap: Keep an eye on the FEC reports. If Cooper keeps outraising the entire Republican field combined, it’s going to be a very long night for the GOP in November.
- Endorsements: Watch to see if any other big Republican names like Lara Trump or Richard Hudson jump in late. It’s unlikely now, but North Carolina politics loves a last-minute plot twist.
Your Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your registration: North Carolina has a "semi-closed" primary. If you’re unaffiliated, you can choose which ballot to vote on. If you're registered with a party, you're stuck with that party's ballot.
- Mark February 12, 2026: That’s when in-person early voting starts for the primary.
- Follow the money: Check the FEC's candidate search tool. It’s the only way to see who is actually funding these ads you're about to see on TV every five minutes.
The race for North Carolina's Senate seat is no longer about who is running against Thom Tillis. It's about who fills the power vacuum he left behind. Whether it’s a "Trump-era" Republican like Whatley or a "Mainstream Democrat" like Cooper, the result will likely determine which party controls the U.S. Senate in 2027.